Saturday, August18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elliott, MD

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:53PM Saturday August 18, 2018 12:29 PM EDT (16:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:06PMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1103 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Rest of today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated showers late this morning, then scattered showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers and tstms. Patchy fog.
Mon..NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms through the night.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1103 Am Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will approach from the northwest and slowly cross the waters today into Sunday. High pressure will build to the north on Monday before a warm front lifts northward through the waters on Tuesday. A cold front will sweep to the east by Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elliott, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181345
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
945 am edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will remain well off the southeast u.S. Coast
through today. A cold front will approach from the northwest
today into tonight, then drops across the area late tonight into
Monday morning. The front will stall over north carolina late
Monday into Tuesday.

Near term through tonight
As of 355 am edt Saturday...

early morning forecast in good shape. Made some tweaks to pops
through 18z, as latest rap hrrr suggest development in our cwa
will largely be delayed until around 18z. Still looking for an
active 18z-04z time period this afternoon evening, with the
primary threats being locally heavy rainfall, and potentially
strong wind gusts. SPC has upgraded our southern third to a
marginal risk, which seems reasonable, although morning
soundings are not as unstable as they were yesterday. This should
help limit severe potential.

Previous discussion... Early this morning, isolated showers were
moving NE thru NRN va and md, with just clear to partly cloudy
and humid conditions over the akq cwa. Temps were ranging thru
the 70s into the lower 80s.

A pre-frontal trough will approach mid-morning early this aftn
from the west, leading to shower TSTM development over the
piedmont. Pops will increase to 40-60% for the aftn hrs into the
evening hrs. This activity will cross the area and move off the
coast from this aftn into early Sun morning. High temps today
should still reach into the upper 80s to lower 90s, even with
sky cover increasing from partly to mostly cloudy.

Short term Sunday through Monday
As of 355 am edt Saturday...

the actual cold front will drop across the area Sun into mon
morning, then will sink into nc by late mon. Sctd showers and
tstms will re-develop, esply for Sun aftn evening. Amount of
cloudiness across the area will limit MAX temps. In addition, if
flow turns from the NE soon enough across the lower md eastern
shore, temps could remain in the upper 70s there. Otherwise,
expect MAX temps to mainly be in the mid to upper 80s most
places.

Sun night and mon, the highest pops will shift into the srn
half of the region closer to the frontal boundary. Lows sun
night in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Partly to mostly cloudy on
mon with highs ranging fm the upper 70s to mid 80s, under NE or
e flow.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 330 pm edt Friday...

an upper level trough will be centered over the upper midwest
Tuesday morning, with a broad upper ridge well offshore of the mid-
atlantic. This will put us in moist SW flow aloft. At the surface,
low pressure will be centered over illinois michigan wisconsin by 12z
Tuesday. As the area of low pressure moves eastward on Tuesday, deep
moisture will surge into the region ahead of a trailing cold front
(gfs forecast pw values are between 2-2.5" by Tuesday afternoon).

Thus, am expecting scattered shower t-storm development throughout
the region during the day on Tuesday, with coverage peaking during
the afternoon evening hours. Have maintained chance pops throughout
the CWA on Tuesday. The latest 17 12z GFS and ECMWF are slightly
quicker with the FROPA than yesterday's runs (cmc still a bit
slower). Therefore, it looks like the best chance for shower t-storm
development Wed afternoon-evening will be along and ahead of the
front over SE va NE nc. Have pops between 20-50% (lowest NW highest
se) on Wednesday. Both the GFS and ECMWF push the front south of the
cwa by Thursday morning, but the cmc stalls it over NE nc. Went with
a gfs ECMWF solution for late next week, with mainly dry (and
slightly cooler) weather on Thursday and Friday as sfc high pressure
remains just north of the region. Cannot rule out a stray shower or
two across the region (most likely south of i-64), but kept pops at
or below 30% on Thu fri.

Afternoon high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s on
Tuesday and Wednesday, with overnight lows ranging from around 70
degrees inland to the low-mid 70s in coastal areas. Slightly cooler
(with lower dew points) behind the cold front on Thursday and
Friday, with highs in the low-mid 80s.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 210 am edt Saturday...

a cold front will approach from the NW today into tonight, then
drops across the area late tonight into Mon morning. Expect
sct-bkn CU between 3-5k feet to develop early this aftn. At
least sctd showers tstms will move across the CWA fm mid aftn
into late this evening. For now, have introduced vcsh at all
the terminals. Brief ifr lifr visibilities are possible in any
tstm due to +ra. Winds are expected to remain out of the SW at
5-15 kt. Pcpn chances will decrease fm wnw to ese late this
evening into early Sun morning.

Outlook... The front will remain over the region on sun, with
the chance of showers tstms continuing. The front drops south
of the region mon, with a chance of showers tstms mainly across
srn va and NE nc. Unsettled conditions potentially continue
into tue.

Marine
As of 230 am edt Saturday...

no headlines as SW winds continue AOB 20 kts around the offshore
high pres. Models push a cold front across the waters Sun shifting
the winds to the e-ne. Despite the wind shift, speeds remain blo sca
levels as no real surge seen in the data. Waves 1-2 ft with seas
avgg 2-3 ft, near 4 ft out near 20 nm at times. Sub-sca conditions
continue into next week as winds become SW once again.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Tmg wrs
short term... Tmg wrs
long term... Eri
aviation... Tmg
marine... Mpr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 12 mi41 min WSW 8 G 8.9 1013.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 13 mi41 min 89°F 85°F1013.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 19 mi47 min W 6 G 7 86°F 1013.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 23 mi47 min SW 5.1 G 7 86°F 83°F1012.7 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 24 mi39 min SW 7.8 G 7.8 83°F 1013.4 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 30 mi39 min W 9.7 G 12 82°F 1012.2 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi59 min W 4.1 G 5.1
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 36 mi47 min W 8.9 G 11 82°F 83°F1013.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 42 mi29 min SW 7 G 8 82°F 83°F1013.2 hPa (-0.9)72°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 45 mi119 min SW 1.9 76°F 1013 hPa71°F
CPVM2 46 mi47 min 83°F 73°F
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi39 min WSW 7.8 G 9.7 83°F 1012.7 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 48 mi47 min 88°F 1012 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 49 mi47 min W 8.9 G 13 82°F 81°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Bishops Head, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD10 mi59 minWSW 510.00 miFair86°F73°F66%1012.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi2.6 hrsWSW 810.00 miOvercast85°F73°F70%1013.1 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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1 day ago5S3CalmS45S4CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE3CalmCalmSW3SW4S4
2 days agoW6W7W8W6W744SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fishing Point, Fishing Bay, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Fishing Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:05 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:52 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.80.50.40.611.62.12.42.32.11.71.20.70.40.30.511.62.22.62.82.62.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 12:20 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:32 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 03:49 AM EDT     First Quarter
Sat -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:59 AM EDT     0.33 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:48 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:23 PM EDT     -0.49 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:08 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:28 PM EDT     0.69 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.30.30.30.1-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.3-00.30.50.70.70.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.