Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 24, 2017 1:32 AM EDT (05:32 UTC) Moonrise 5:23AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 1032 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight...
.gale warning in effect until 8 am edt Saturday...
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Saturday through Saturday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Increasing to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 1 ft. Isolated tstms. Scattered showers late this evening, then showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 35 kt... Becoming W 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. The remnants of cindy will track over the area tonight. A weak secondary front will cross Sunday before high pressure returns early next week. Small craft advisory conditions are possible Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 240112
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
912 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Tropical air will envelop the area today. A cold front will
cross the area late tonight into Saturday. High pressure will
return Sunday and persist through early next week.

Near term through Saturday
Besides a few showers across the region late this afternoon and
early this evening... The lwx CWA has been quiet especially compared
to our neighbors to the west and north. This will change tonight
as remnants of TD cindy and a cold front will move into the
mid- atlantic region. Showers will spread across the region
tonight with embedded heavy showers and gusty winds. The
atmosphere is moist with an observed pwat from klwx of 1.9 at
00z. Sfc dewpts in the 70s will give to moderate instability
across the region tonight. Shear is also moderate with near
50kts of 0-6km bulk shear. Thunderstorms are possible as the
cold front crosses the region overnight. Hi-res guidance depicts
some line segments that may produce stronger winds and severe
thunderstorm warnings can not be ruled out overnight. Seems like
the best chance will be across the northern half of the outlook
area. Rainfall amounts of 0.75- 1 in are expected across the
northern half and will taper off to around 0.25 in across the
central foothills southern md overnight with higher amounts in
heavier bands thunderstorms.

Elsewhere... A strong LLJ will be on top of the region tonight
and widespread showers will likely bring down gusty winds.

Gusts 35-45 mph can not be ruled out across the region into
early Saturday morning. The cold front should cross the region
by 8am Saturday morning and drying will occur behind it.

Prev discussion...

latest GFS nam prog timing to be so quick that all precip will
be east of the forecast area by the start of the period. Am a
little bit caution of that solution, and have lingered some
precip into the Saturday morning hours. Then we'll need to
assess how quickly front leaves area; there are some suggestions
in may get caught up across southern maryland or the virginia
tidewater.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
High pressure will be building across the area this weekend,
with no other weather hazards. Perhaps there will be a
reinforcing boundary Sunday, but moisture looks scant for even
clouds.

Accepted a MOS blend for temps. Sunday will be the cooler day,
with lower dewpoints also advecting in Saturday.

Long term Monday through Friday
Surface high pressure sets to the west on Monday as a slow
moving upper level trough slides east into Tuesday with surface
westerly flow. Below normal temperatures, with showers and
thunderstorms possible during this period.

Conditions should become drier as surface high settles overhead
Tuesday night. The high will move offshore on Wednesday and continue
moving west into Thursday as flow becomes more southerly.

Temperatures will be on the rise as dry conditions continue into
Friday, when guidance suggest a boundary will bring showers and
thunderstorms over our area.

Aviation 01z Saturday through Wednesday
A cold front, infused with tropical moisture, will cross the
terminals tonight, most likely after midnight but before dawn.

At this point, kept restrictions at MVFR. There is a decent
potential of local brief ifr, probably due more to reduced vsbys
in heavy rain. There may also be localized wind gusts. Where
these gusts aren't realized, there is a 50-70 kt wind max
several thousand feet off the deck, so low-level wind shear will
be a concern.

The front will be east of the terminals by Saturday morning.VFR
conditions will prevail for the weekend.

Mostly dryVFR conditions expected Monday into Wednesday as
surface high pressure settles in. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as upper
air disturbance moves through, which could cause periods of sub-
vfr conditions.

Marine
Update... A gale warning is in effect for all waters late
tonight into Saturday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds on the waters during this
time.

Southwest winds 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20 kt. Those winds
will be increasing ahead of a cold front tonight. Small craft
advisories remain in effect. There will be a 50+ kt low level
jet several thousand feet off the waters overnight. Do not
believe this will mix down in the gradient flow, but local
punches may near heavier showers. Marine warnings may be
required tonight.

Northwest flow Saturday will contain better mixing. The
gradient will decease Saturday night. Have not extended the
advisory further at this time.

Mostly dry conditions expected Monday into Wednesday as surface
high pressure settles in. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon into Tuesday as upper
air disturbance moves through. Winds gusts will be below the
small craft advisory criteria.

Hydrology
As mentioned above, precip waters will be exceeding 2 inches, so
heavy rain expected in storms tonight. However, only 0.1 to 0.3
inches fell this morning, so soils were not saturated. Further,
storms look to be progressive. So, while heavy rain expected,
believe that the soil will be able to handle it overall, based
on flash flood guidance. Thus, will not post any watches at this
time. Local minor flooding is possible, especially in the
potomac highlands.

Tides coastal flooding
A coastal flood advisory is in effect for anne arundel,
baltimore and harford counties late tonight into Saturday
morning. Anomalies around one foot are expected during this
time.

Beyond that, northwest winds should lead to levels returning
close to normal.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Coastal flood advisory from 2 am to 2 pm edt Saturday for
mdz011-014-508.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz530>543.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 6 pm edt Saturday for
anz530>543.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 8 am edt Saturday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Rcm are expected during this
time.

Beyond that, northwest winds sho
near term... Hsk hts
short term... Ads hts
long term... Imr
aviation... Hsk imr hts
marine... Hsk imr hts
hydrology... Hsk
tides coastal flooding... Hsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi45 min SSW 19 G 27 83°F 1006.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi45 min SSW 15 G 23 82°F 77°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi33 min WSW 18 G 21 83°F 78°F2 ft1006.1 hPa (-1.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi45 min SW 16 G 19
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi45 min SSW 17 G 21 83°F 81°F1006.8 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi45 min 82°F 81°F1006.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi33 min SW 18 G 21 83°F 78°F2 ft1005.8 hPa (-1.1)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi45 min SW 16 G 20 83°F 80°F1006.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi123 min SSE 5.1 79°F 1006 hPa71°F
NCDV2 34 mi45 min SSW 9.9 G 14 84°F 80°F1004.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi33 min SSW 19 G 20 82°F 78°F
44063 - Annapolis 40 mi33 min SW 16 G 19 84°F 78°F1 ft1004.6 hPa (-1.5)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi45 min 83°F 1004.2 hPa
CPVM2 42 mi45 min 82°F 74°F
44061 - Upper Potomac, MD 44 mi45 min SSW 14 G 18 80°F 82°F1004.9 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi45 min SSW 11 G 16 84°F 83°F1004.1 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi41 minSSW 14 G 2210.00 miFair83°F72°F70%1006.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi40 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miFair81°F69°F70%1006.8 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi40 minSSW 12 G 2010.00 miFair83°F73°F74%1006.1 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi43 minSSW 8 G 1610.00 miFair82°F73°F74%1006.4 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW9SW10SW9W53W4W4W4SW3SW5SW7SW6W7W7W6W6S5SW6SW5SW5CalmSW5SW7SW7
2 days agoSW8SW11SW12SW10
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W96SW9SW8SW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:11 AM EDT     1.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:20 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:30 PM EDT     1.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.41.71.81.81.61.310.70.40.30.30.50.70.9110.90.70.40.30.20.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:00 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:41 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:09 AM EDT     -0.86 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 01:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:52 PM EDT     0.42 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:07 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:49 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.60.910.90.60.3-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.20.10.40.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.5-0.5-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.