Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:46PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:35 PM EST (03:35 UTC) Moonrise 2:09PMMoonset 2:31AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ542 Patuxent River To Broomes Island Md- 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Rest of tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Fri..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Fri night..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 936 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build into the region and linger through Wednesday. The next low pressure system will approach from the southeastern united states late Thursday and cross the region Friday. Gale conditions are possible Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Ranch Estates, MD
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location: 38.39, -76.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 190205
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
905 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will be in place through Wednesday. A large area
of low pressure will impact the region Thursday and Friday.

Surface high pressure will move back towards the region by late
Saturday.

Near term through Wednesday night
High pressure will be in control through Wed night. With the
center of the high nearby tonight and only some thin cirrus
clouds passing by, radiational cooling should be efficient. Some
outlying areas have already dropped into the 20s. Lows will be
in the lower to mid 20s in most areas, with lower 30s in the
urban and nearshore areas.

Highs Wed a little warmer than today but seasonable in the mid
40s. Not as cold Wed night due to increased cloud cover ahead of
next storm system.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Very potent storm system will be affecting the east coast thu
night into Sat with potentially record slp values over our area for
the month of december with values fcst to be less than 990 mb.

There is a low, but non-zero threat that if precipitation moves
in early enough on Thursday, there could be some light freezing
rain in areas west of the blue ridge.

This system will be accompanied by a strong warm conveyor belt
bringing pw values over 1.5 inches which are near 400% or
nearly +4 stds of normal. Widespread heavy rainfall of 1.5 to
2.5 inches is expected with isold higher amts. Given saturated
soils from last weekend's rain and potentially intense rainfall
rates and training convection, flash flooding threat appears
very high with this event. A severe threat may also exist due to
strong low-level wind fields (i.E. 60kt 850 mb low- level jet)
particularly east of the blue ridge mtns. Best chance for heavy
rainfall and flooding threat is from 7pm Thu through about 10am
fri. See long term discussion below.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
Strong cold front will be crossing the region Friday. Convective
elements producing gusty winds and heavy rain will be possible
thanks to anomalously strong low level jet and very high pw's. Both
flash flooding and severe weather may be concerns.

After the front passes, strong pressure gradient as the low pressure
pushes up to southern canada will remain over our region, resulting
in a gusty wind and potentially wind advisory criteria (50 mph
gusts). This will extend from late Friday into Saturday. Upslope
snow showers will be another concern, with advisory level snow
potential along our westernmost zones.

After that, high pressure builds to the south later Saturday through
Sunday, with much more tranquil weather. A weak system then passes
Monday, but with little forcing and limited moisture, precip should
be extremely limited and will likely be restricted to upslope higher
terrain locations. Another high pressure will dominate for Monday
night and Tuesday with benign christmas weather expected.

With a relatively zonal flow in place, temperatures will be near
normal, perhaps even a little on the plus side, through the long
term.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr through 12z Thu with only high clouds. Nearly calm winds
tonight, becoming southerly 5-8 kt on Wednesday as high pressure
moves east. Flight restrictions (with some ifr) likely thu
afternoon through Thu night in moderate to heavy rainfall. Llws
also possible.

Heavy rain and gusty winds are a concern Friday, with potential for
gusty winds continuing into Saturday. Sub-vfr CIGS vis probable
Friday, but should improve toVFR by Saturday.

Marine
Winds have diminished under 10 kt this evening as high pressure
moves over the region. Sub-sca conditions expected through thu
with winds strengthening again Thu night with potential gales
through sat.

Strong front will bring potential for gusty showers, potentially up
to special marine warning criteria, Friday, then gales are possible
behind the front Friday night into Saturday.

Hydrology
River flooding has ended for now, with continued falling stages
are expected through thu. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches are expected Thu night into Friday. Renewed river
flooding appears likely Thu night through sat. Given high stream
levels and saturated ground, flooding will likely be reached
more quickly than the last system. Flash flood watch will
likely be required by this time tomorrow.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies will be increasing again Thursday night and Friday
with potential coastal flooding Thu night and fri.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore md and
washington dc setting the annual record already. Here are the
current rankings for wettest year on record (through december
17th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 64.22 inches (2018)
2. 61.33 inches (1889)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 68.82 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 64.36 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Ads lfr
short term... Ads lfr
long term... Rcm
aviation... Ads rcm lfr
marine... Ads rcm lfr
hydrology... Lfr ads
tides coastal flooding... Lfr
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 1 mi36 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 40°F 1023.3 hPa (+0.4)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 6 mi36 min NNW 1 G 1.9 36°F 43°F1022.5 hPa (+0.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 19 mi42 min Calm G 1.9
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi42 min 36°F 42°F1022.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 22 mi36 min NW 2.9 G 2.9 39°F 42°F1023.1 hPa (+0.7)
44042 - Potomac, MD 25 mi36 min NNW 1.9 G 1.9 40°F 43°F1022.2 hPa (+0.6)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 28 mi42 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 35°F 43°F1022.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi126 min Calm 31°F 1022 hPa27°F
NCDV2 34 mi42 min NNE 1 G 1.9 31°F 40°F1022.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 35 mi36 min W 5.1 G 6 39°F 43°F1023.4 hPa (+0.4)26°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 41 mi36 min 35°F 1022.2 hPa (+0.4)
CPVM2 42 mi36 min 39°F 23°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi36 min Calm G 1.9 39°F 42°F1022.8 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD7 mi1.7 hrsN 510.00 miFair32°F28°F88%1022.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD9 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair30°F26°F86%1023 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD17 mi43 minN 010.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1022.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD22 mi56 minSSE 410.00 miFair30°F26°F86%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from NHK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12NW17NW16
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NW14W8NW7N12NW13NW15NW17NW13NW14W10NW14NW11NW11NW8W6SW4SW4N5SW3
1 day agoNW11NW7W7W9W8W9W6W9W10W12SW9W10W8W12W15W13
G21
W12W9SW7W8NW9N9N9N12
2 days ago----NE6NW3NW6--NW4W5NW3NW3NW5N6NW8NW10N14NW11NW13NW12NW14----NW13NW14NW14
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point, Maryland (2)
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Cove Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:15 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:03 AM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:27 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:50 PM EST     0.97 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.40.1-0.1-0.2-0.2-00.30.611.21.31.210.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.80.91

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 02:31 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 05:00 AM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:44 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:05 AM EST     0.70 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:08 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:13 PM EST     -0.57 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:26 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:35 PM EST     0.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.40.60.70.60.50.2-0-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.10.10.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.