Friday, September21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sereno del Mar, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 7:10PM Friday September 21, 2018 8:54 AM PDT (15:54 UTC) Moonrise 4:47PMMoonset 2:35AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Point Arena To Point Reyes To 10 Nm- 242 Am Pdt Fri Sep 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am pdt this morning through Saturday afternoon...
Today..NW winds 10 to 20 kt...with gust to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 4 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft.
PZZ500 242 Am Pdt Fri Sep 21 2018
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... A high pressure ridge over the eastern pacific will extend over far northern california today and tonight. A strong high pressure system south of the aleutian islands will advance eastward and become stationary off the pacific northwest by early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sereno del Mar, CA
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location: 38.4, -123.09     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 211535
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
835 am pdt Fri sep 21 2018

Synopsis Cooler temperatures are expected near the coast and
in some valleys today, but most inland areas will remain very
warm and dry. Cooling is expected region-wide over the weekend as
onshore flow increases, but temperatures are forecast to remain
near or slightly above seasonal averages. A renewed warming trend
is then likely during the first half of next week as high pressure
builds near the west coast and offshore flow potentially
develops.

Discussion As of 08:28 am pdt Friday... Short term weather
concerns impacts are focused on the southerly surge racing
northward along the coast. The surge is moving northward a decent
clip - 15 kts per satellite imagery. Did a quick update to the
official forecast this morning to better reflect reality with the
surge and cloud cover. Given the latest satellite trends clouds
will be approaching the golden gate pt reyes by early this
afternoon. The surge will also bring some patchy fog to the
immediate coast, especially along the leading edge of the cloud
deck. The other impact to the region will be cooler temperatures
along the coast. As typical with southerly surges, santa cruz will
be cooler and struggle to see sunshine where monterey will be
warmer and see more sunshine. Will monitor temps closely, but
current forecast does reflect this scenario.

No other updates expected at this time. Conditions moderate
through the weekend then focus turns toward warm up next week.

Prev discussion As of 3:00 am pdt Friday... Another clear night
across the district, although coastal stratus is starting to
progress northward and has rounded point conception. Temperatures
are warmer than they were 24 hours ago, while dew points are
lower. Thus, rh values are 10-20% lower than last night, but
fortunately, winds are light.

Models continue to indicate a southerly stratus surge today. As
low clouds can be seen on satellite moving up the coast, arrival
to the monterey bay isn't expected until mid or late morning. If
it reaches santa cruz, high temps there could be 20 degrees cooler
than Thursday's high of 92. Some coastal valleys will also
experience cooling today, however, the inland valleys and hills
will remain very warm and dry on Friday.

An upper trough is forecast to move inland across the pacific
northwest and far northern california during the weekend. This
will result in some modest cooling across our entire region on
Saturday and Sunday as onshore flow increases. Locally gusty
westerly winds are forecast to develop, especially by Sunday
afternoon.

High pressure is forecast to rebuild over the west early next
week. This is expected to bring another robust warming trend to
the area beginning on Monday. Offshore flow could develop as early
as Sunday night and Monday morning with gusty winds possible in
the higher terrain. Temperatures are expected to level off and
continue warm through the remainder of the week as high pressure
remains over the west.

Aviation As of 4:31 am pdt Friday... It'sVFR at all terminals
except khaf has been reporting an occasional mainly thin lifr cig.

The marine inversion is compressed to 300 to 400 feet at the point
sur and fort ord profilers, and down to sea level at bodega bay.

With exception of a patch or two of lifr on the coastline this
morning,VFR should continue at the terminals today, near high
confidence. Clear skies, decent radiative cooling, SE lower level
winds above the marine inversion are combining to enhance a land
breeze best established presently over the salinas valley; recent
ksns observations has shown a SE wind up to 10 to 11 knots.

Recent model output indicating a southerly pressure gradient (2.6
mb) has developed with a light southerly surge edging northward
along the monterey county coastline; 12 meter elevation wind report
at point sur station had a north wind til midnight and it has since
been light e-se. Difficult to say how far north stratus and fog
will advance in this pattern, the southerly pressure gradient may
peak this morning with generally onshore winds developing all areas
in the afternoon. Statistical guidance indicates ifr in low clouds
and fog kmry and ksns mid-late evening into Saturday morning; low
confidence thus will indicate few-sct coverage for now. The bay area
tafs have a much better chance of stayingVFR for the period.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR. Light wind, becoming westerly near 15 knots
in the afternoon. Wind becoming light tonight.

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals... .Vfr. Light SE wind except in the salinas
valley SE wind near 10 knots this morning with ideal conditions for
a land breeze; winds all locations becoming onshore in the afternoon.

Low confidence on sky cover tonight, for now tafs indicateVFR.

Fire weather As of 3:00 am pdt Friday... A warm and very dry
airmass will remain over inland areas today and relative humidity
recoveries in the hills this morning are expected to be very poor
once again. However, winds are forecast to remain light through
the day.

Gradual inland cooling is forecast over the weekend as onshore
flow increases. Locally gusty westerly winds are expected by
Sunday afternoon. A renewed warming trend is then likely during
the first half of next week with inland temperatures forecast to
warm back into the 90s by Tuesday and Wednesday. Models indicate
the potential for moderate northerly (offshore) winds in the hills
on Sunday night and Monday morning and then light offshore flow
from Monday afternoon through midweek. Will need to monitor the
forecast for early next week closely for the potential for
stronger offshore winds.

Marine As of 2:42 am pdt Friday... A high pressure ridge over
the eastern pacific will extend over far northern california today
and tonight. A strong high pressure system south of the aleutian
islands will advance eastward and become stationary off the pacific
northwest by early next week.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pt arena to pt reyes 0-10 nm
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm
public forecast: mm sims
aviation: canepa
marine: canepa
fire weather: dykema sims
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 16 mi35 min E 5.8 G 7.8 51°F1013.9 hPa
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 29 mi37 min 55°F1013.9 hPa
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 37 mi25 min 52°F7 ft
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 47 mi35 min S 3.9 G 5.8 55°F 55°F1014.9 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 48 mi43 min 51°F 50°F1014.6 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 49 mi38 min Calm 67°F 1014 hPa
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 49 mi55 min 58°F4 ft
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 49 mi37 min 64°F

Wind History for Point Reyes, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA17 mi2 hrsN 310.00 miFair47°F39°F77%1012.3 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW4NW4Calm3S6S9
G14
S10SW8SW7W6SE4SE5SE4CalmNW3CalmNW3NW3N3CalmCalmW4N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW335S6S11S8S7S7S4SE3CalmCalmW3N4W3N4NW5NW5W4W5
2 days agoNE3CalmCalm54SW3S7S7S10S8SE12S10S5S3CalmS3CalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Bodega Harbor entrance, California
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.