Sunrise 5:55 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 9:39 AM   Moonset 12:12 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1036 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Rest of today - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Vsby 1 nm or less. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Fri - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of tstms. Showers likely through the night.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Am Edt Mon May 13 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
high pressure will push south of the waters today before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Additional waves of low pressure and quick moving fronts will pass through the region Friday into the weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Tuesday through Friday.

FXUS61 KLWX 131354 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 954 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will briefly settle over the region today bringing dry conditions and seasonable temperatures. High pressure will push off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight allowing a slow moving low pressure system to move in from the mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
Increased shower and thunderstorm chances will accompany this low pressure system along with below normal temperatures. Drier weather returns Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Morning low stratus clouds have mostly dissipated along I-95 in MD, with the last bits dissipating in Cecil County over the next hour. After that, ample sunshine and warm temperatures in the 70s to near 80 degrees is expected today. High cirrus clouds move in from the west through the day.

The next low pressure system will be in the mid Mississippi Valley tonight, with a lead shortwave and arm of isentropic lift approaching the mid Atlantic. Clouds will gradually increase, and showers will become possible in southwestern portions of the area toward dawn. Temperatures will be milder in the mid 50s to near 60.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Rain returns Tuesday into Wednesday as the broad upper trough and surface low slowly plod eastward across the area. Showers will be more occasional in nature, although there could be a few periods of steadier rain. Instability appears to be rather limited Tuesday, with the best chance of any thunderstorms west of the Blue Ridge. If anything, there may be a better opportunity for some elevated rumbles of thunder Tuesday night.
On Wednesday, the greatest instability will be across the southwestern half of the area, where there may be a better chance for some breaks of sun. The chance of rain will decrease Wednesday night as the low pulls offshore, although there is some uncertainty in how quickly that revolves around a potential closed low aloft.

There may be a few opportunities for locally heavier rain: (1)
with southeasterly upslope flow into the central Virginia Blue Ridge on Tuesday, (2) north of the surface low track Tuesday night, and (3) within the higher instability airmass Wednesday when flow will be light under the upper trough. Any risk of flooding appears to be marginal and dependent on multiple or prolonged periods of heavier rain. Forecast totals range from 0.50-1 inch for much of the area, with 1-2 inches possible toward central Virginia. The threat for severe thunderstorms appears to be low through the period.

The clouds and rain will mute the diurnal temperature ranges, with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Low pressure and the resultant upper level trough will pivot off the Mid-Atlantic coast Thursday while brief mid-level ridging settles in from the central Appalachians region. This will allow for a brief reprieve in shower and thunderstorm activity before things ramp up again later in the workweek.

Unfortunately the calmer weather conditions will be short-lived with the next upper level trough and low pressure system set to approach from the Ohio River Valley/Great Lakes region Friday into Saturday.
With that said, model guidance continues to show subtle discrepancies in regards to to the timing of this system and placement of it's associated surface fronts across the region. Most of the recent 00z guidance suggests an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon and night as a warm front lifts through the area. A slow moving cold front will immediately follow this boundary Saturday into Saturday night bringing with it additional showers and thunderstorms. Severe weather does not appear to be a concern at this point although one or two strong thunderstorms cannot be ruled out if CAPE and shear are maximized.
Localized flooding could be the bigger concern given repetitive rounds of rain throughout the week and rich moisture flooding in along the slow moving warm front Friday into Friday night.

Upper level ridging tries to build back into the area Sunday bringing slightly drier conditions. Another front will follow with renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday next week. Temperatures throughout the extended forecast period will remain at or slightly below normal for the middle of May.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR conditions have returned to all terminals after some early morning status/mist. Southerly winds increase during the afternoon, with gusts of 15-20 knots. Ceilings decrease tonight ahead of the next system but likely remain VFR. Showers may reach CHO by dawn Tuesday.

Occasional showers return Tuesday and Wednesday as a slow moving area of low pressure crosses the region. MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected, with LIFR possible Tuesday night. Cloud bases may attempt to lift for a time Wednesday. Thunderstorm coverage will be isolated for most of the period, with a higher chance Wednesday afternoon near CHO.

Sub-MVFR cigs and vsbys remain possible with any spotty shower or thunderstorm activity that looks to linger Thursday. Mid-level ridging should promote drier conditions during the late afternoon and evening as low pressure pushes further offshore. Sub-VFR conditions return Friday into Saturday as another upper level trough and series of fronts traverse the region. Shower and thunderstorm activity will increase across the terminals especially Friday and Saturday afternoons. Slightly drier conditions and VFR return Sunday into Monday next week.

MARINE
South-southeast winds increase through the day as high pressure moves offshore. Small Craft Advisories go into effect late this afternoon into tonight as stronger winds spread north and channel. Winds are forecast to gradually scale back toward dawn Tuesday and there may be a relative lull in the winds through the morning

Unsettled weather returns to the area as a slow moving area of low pressure crosses the region. Winds will increase again Tuesday into Tuesday night as the low pressure passes to the south and east, with additional advisories likely. Strongest winds may occur Tuesday evening, although there is some uncertainty on the strength of the low and how much wind will mix to the surface.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible late Tuesday through Wednesday, but they may not become too strong. Wind forecast for Wednesday into Wednesday night has trended downward, but additional advisories could be needed depending on the offshore low.

SCA conditions are likely Thursday into Friday as low pressure pushes offshore and weak high pressure builds in. SCA conditions will linger into the weekend as a series of fronts traverse the region. This will be the case Friday with a warm front and Saturday with a cold front set to cross the waters. Shower and thunderstorm activity will also increase especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Increasing southerly winds through today is likely to produce additional periods of coastal flooding at sensitive locations through Tuesday. These locations include, but are not limited to Otter Point, Annapolis, DC Waterfront, Straits Point, and Baltimore. The highest confidence for minor flooding today into Tuesday appears to be at Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC Waterfront. Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed for these locations in the upcoming forecast issuance.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ530-538.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ531-539>541.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ532>534-537-543.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EDT tonight for ANZ542.

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Mathias Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 02:31 AM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:34 AM EDT     1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:24 PM EDT     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:21 PM EDT     1.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mathias Point, Virginia, Tide feet

Dahlgren
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:12 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:29 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:46 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:39 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:11 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     1.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Dahlgren, Upper Machodoc Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

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