Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 2:43 AM   Moonset 1:59 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until midnight edt tonight - ..small craft advisory in effect from Saturday evening through late Saturday night - .
Rest of tonight - E winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms late this evening, then showers likely with a slight chance of tstms. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain with areas of drizzle. Sat night - E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1036 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a boundary will remain to the south and west of the waters through Saturday night before returning as a warm front Sunday into Monday. Another cold front will stall near the waters for the middle and latter portions of next week. Small craft advisories may be needed Sunday and Sunday night.

FXUS61 KLWX 040118 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 918 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front will sink south of the area tonight. The boundary will return north as a warm front Sunday into Monday before secondary cold front approaches and stalls near the area for the middle and latter portions of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
A backdoor cold front is expected to stall this evening before it pushes farther to the southwest overnight into early Saturday. A southerly flow aloft will allow for additional moisture to move in overtop of the boundary, adding fuel to the fire of any showers and thunderstorms into the overnight hours.
These showers and thunderstorms have been developing and slowly moving erratically during the past couple of hours from the Appalachians to the Shenandoah Valley. This activity will continue to push eastward overnight with additional shower development anticipated during the day on Saturday. As a matter of fact, cooler conditions and some cloud cover may prohibit strong thunderstorm development with the boundary still to our south on Saturday. Drizzle and areas of light rain may become the flavor during the day Saturday. Lows tonight will be in the 50s for most areas, with upper 40s in portions of northern Maryland. Highs on Saturday may only be 7 to 10 milder than our overnight lows as cloud cover, shower activity and some drizzle will mostly likely be the influence for such cool daytime temperatures.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Previous discussion...
The backdoor boundary will remain to the south and west through Saturday night while high pressure remains centered near the New England Coast. An onshore flow will continue during this time while warm and moist air overruns the marine layer in response to an upper-level trough pushing into the Midwest. This will result in plenty of clouds along with periods of rainfall and unseasonably cool conditions. There may be some breaks in the rain, but for most of the time near and west of Interstate 95, there will be some rain around. Perhaps there will be some more breaks east of Interstate 95 where the overrunning moisture may not be quite as deep.

The overrunning moisture will deepen Saturday night into Sunday morning as the boundary begins to push north as a warm front, and the low-level flow develops a fetch from the Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, more rain is expected.

The warm front will move into the area Sunday while a weak upper-level trough axis passes through. More unsettled conditions are expected with showers and perhaps even a couple thunderstorms. Sunday afternoon will turn out a bit warmer and more humid as well, but temps still near and below climo. Highs will range from the 60s north of the boundary in northern MD into the metro areas/eastern WV/northern VA to the 70s south of the boundary. The upper-level trough axis will move off to the east Sunday night while the surface boundary remains nearby.
While a few showers are possible, coverage of precipitation should wane behind the departing trough axis. There may be areas of dense fog overnight with plenty of low-level moisture and light winds.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
The unsettled weather pattern is likely to continue across the region for virtually all of next week. Nearly zonal flow aloft favors numerous passing shortwaves that bring enhancements to the daily afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Even at night, isolated showers/storms are possible given the increased moisture and lingering elevated instability.

At the surface, a stalled frontal boundary is likely to be just north of the area Monday, slide south to around I-70 Monday night, then be pushed back north of the area through mid week. However, any change in the position of the stalled front could result in higher or lower rain chances than currently forecast for some areas. A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, possibly bringing some heavier rainfall and stronger storms to the area.

Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday and Tuesday warm to the mid 80s Wednesday and Thursday. Very mild overnight lows in the 60s each night due to increased dew points and cloud cover.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Low clouds will develop due to an onshore flow with MVFR conditions developing most likely between 2Z and 5Z and IFR conditions developing overnight. In the meantime, CHO is encountering MVFR ceilings with rain and thunder in the area and could linger for another hour or so. Showers are likely to develop overnight at MRB, IAD and DCA, and a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out between 5z and 9z due to elevated instability.

IFR/subIFR conditions are expected most of the time Saturday through Saturday night along with periods of rain and drizzle.
There may be a few breaks of MVFR conditions Saturday afternoon.
More unsettled conditions are expected Sunday morning with IFR/subIFR cigs/vsbys. Cigs/vsbys should improve some Sunday afternoon, but areas of low clouds and dense fog may cause more subIFR conditions Sunday night. Showers are likely Sunday with perhaps a few thunderstorms. Precipitation coverage should wane Sunday night, but a few showers are possible.

Unsettled weather looks to continue for the start of next week.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are likely each afternoon, with more isolated activity during the overnight and mostly dry in the morning. A heavy shower/storm moving over a terminal could result in brief sub-VFR conditions. Outside of shower/storm activity, VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE
A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Saturday and into Saturday night. The Upper Potomac and Upper Chesapeake Bay may be relieved from the SCA but as for the central and southern Bay and Potomac the SCA may continue due to onshore winds ahead of an approaching warm front.

The warm front will move into the area Sunday into Sunday night.
More SCA conditions are possible during this time.

West to southwest winds around 5-10 knots at the start of next week as the unsettled weather pattern continues. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely each afternoon. Any stronger storm could produce wind gusts to 35 knots and lightning strikes. A weak frontal boundary dips south into the northern Chesapeake Bay Monday night, then lifts north of the area Tuesday. Otherwise, winds are forecast to remain below SCA conditions.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will persist through early next week. This will raise water levels and keep them elevated during this time, causing minor tidal flooding for many locations. Moderate tidal flooding is possible around Annapolis and St. Mary's County with the high tide cycle late Saturday night, and again late Sunday night into Monday morning.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for MDZ017.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534- 537>543.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ535-536.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ536.

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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:17 AM EDT     1.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:50 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:09 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

Clifton Beach, Potomac River, Maryland, Tide feet

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