Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fairview Beach, VA
May 18, 2024 12:47 PM EDT (16:47 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 2:43 PM Moonset 2:25 AM |
ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1034 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Rest of today - E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers late this morning, then numerous showers with isolated tstms this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night - E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon - NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1033 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this weekend.
low pressure will progress offshore this weekend. High pressure will build over the waters on Monday and Tuesday, before a strong cold front approaches during the middle of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters this weekend.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 181404 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1004 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through the weekend.
High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-MORNING UPDATE...
With the system being much more progressive, the forecast has been challenging this morning. SPC mesoanalyses show the 300mb jet further east than anticipated, the more favorable ascent already moving over eastern Maryland. Consequently, rainfall totals are looking to fall below forecast and isolated flooding is becoming less of a concern, and the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire.
Behind the main swath of moderate rain, scattered showers linger. Ceilings and visibility have quickly rebounded behind the exiting rain shield, but there is uncertainty on if MVFR or lower conditions return with any scattered rain moving in. Some guidance continues to tank conditions through the afternoon and into the overnight, though CAMs (which currently have a better handle on things, though still not as progressive) aren't nearly as pessimistic. Some thinning of the cloud cover is evident on satellite this morning, with even a few breaks developing along the Allegheny Ridge. Currently expect this clearing to expand slightly further east as we head into the afternoon, but likely not as far east as the Blue Ridge. High temperatures in these areas may rise a few degrees than previously forecast.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
Surface observations across the Mid-Atlantic region show light east to southeasterly flow with early morning temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the south, a frontal zone sits along the North Carolina/South Carolina border, while arcing back into the Great Smoky Mountains. The 06Z RAP objective analysis shows a well established 925-850 mb theta-e boundary near the Virginia/North Carolina line. Southwesterly isentropic lift over this boundary continues to drive a shield of light to moderate rain showers over portions of the area.
Based on the latest radar trends, the more focused area of locally heavy showers have been maintained over areas of Mineral County back into Grant County in West Virginia. This is largely due to a series of mid-level impulses as seen on multi-channel water vapor imagery. The shield of more intense shower activity is expected to push into the Flood Watch area which spans the Central Virginia Piedmont back into the Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands. This watch remains in effect until 10 AM this morning. Total rainfall amounts within this watch area could push into the 1 to 3 inch range, locally up to 4 inches depending on any convective elements.
Overall lightning activity has been non-existent at this point owing to a very limited reservoir of instability. The latest analysis shows under 100 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE, mainly along and west of the Allegheny Front. As the mentioned impulses aloft track eastward, expect a band of light to moderate rainfall to overspread the remainder of the area today. Outside of the watch area, total forecast amounts should range from 0.50 to 1.00 inches, locally down to a 0.10 to 0.25 inches for those northeast of D.C. Any thunderstorm threat should be limited and dependent on breaks in the clouds. By this evening, a bulk of the remaining showers are likely to focus over southern Maryland with perhaps a light mist or drizzle in the wake. Given the continued onshore flow, low clouds and patchy fog linger into the night.
Forecast temperatures remain fairly steady state thanks to the persistent onshore flow, extensive cloud cover, and threat for showers. The overall diurnal range should be on the low side as the high/low temperature spread may be around 4 to 7 degrees.
Today's highs are mainly confined to the low 60s although some mid/upper 60s are possible toward the Shenandoah Valley back into the Allegheny mountain valleys. This is where shower activity comes to an end earlier. Nighttime low temperatures stay in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A thick area of low cloud cover is expected to start off the day with winds gradually shifting from east to northeasterly. Aside from patchy fog and areas of drizzle, it should be a dry start to the day for most. There should also be more breaks in the clouds across the area, with even some afternoon clearing for the Shenandoah Valley and points westward. With the increase in sunshine, this will also introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any threat should wane by dusk given the loss of heating. Much warmer weather is expected on Sunday as high temperatures rise into the low/mid 70s, with mid/upper 60s across the higher terrain. Overnight low temperatures drop into the low/mid 50s.
Given low pressure exiting the Carolinas and high pressure off the northeastern U.S. coast, the net gradient will favor further easterly onshore flow on Monday. Despite this flow regime, mostly sunny skies are expected as heights build aloft in response to an eastern U.S. ridge. Forecast highs rise back into the upper 70s to low 80s which is close to average for mid/late May standards. Expect a shift to light southerly winds overnight with mainly clear skies. Nighttime temperatures stay fairly close to the past couple of nights.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridging both at the surface and aloft is expected to persist through Tuesday. This should lead to fair and dry weather with warming temperatures compared to previous days.
As the high at the surface moves offshore and ridging aloft breaks down, heat and instability will build as a trough and cold front slowly approach from the Midwest. The building instability offers enough potential energy for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms, with the approaching front acting as a trigger to act on that energy.
Shear sufficient enough to organize storms resulting in a more widespread threat remains in question, and may ultimately lag behind the strongest instability. Predictability is low this far out, but it's a period to monitor with at least limited convective potential.
The cold front is expected to move offshore Thursday into Friday.
This will knock down humidity levels with slightly cooler temperatures as winds turn northwesterly.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A lengthy period of restrictions are expected today given showers and low ceilings. Any instance of thunderstorms should be limited and highly dependent on breaks in the thick low clouds. The highest confidence is around KCHO, mainly in the mid-afternoon to early evening timeframe. Elsewhere, confidence is too low to introduce into the TAF. Winds remain out of the east to southeast throughout the day, accompanied by IFR ceilings. Guidance continues to hint at LIFR ceilings by tonight which is currently reflected in the KIAD, KCHO, and KMRB TAFs. This seems reasonable given the degree of low-level moisture, onshore flow, and saturated grounds.
Expect an eventual improvement to MVFR ceilings by midday Sunday. This would include more breaks in the clouds as rainfall ends the previous night. Winds become mainly northeasterly on Sunday before shifting to east-southeasterly on Monday. VFR conditions are likely on Monday with mostly sunny skies.
Mainly VFR Tue-Wed. SHRA/TSRA chc increases Wed. Winds S/SE 5-15 kts.
MARINE
Some passing showers continue to push wind gusts up to around 15 knots. However, winds largely stay in the 5 to 10 knot range outside of such brief bursts. Onshore flow persists throughout the weekend with some uptick in wind fields by this afternoon and evening. Near 20 knot gusts are possible over the lower waters. Expect near Small Craft Advisory gusts across these waters through tonight and into much of Sunday. As such, advisories may be hoisted for this area. Onshore gradients slowly weaken into Monday which brings gusts below advisory thresholds.
Winds will turn south to southeasterly Tuesday into Wednesday. Given generally weak gradients and warmer air over relatively cooler water, most of the time should feature sub-SCA level winds, though brief channeling effects from bay/river breezes could increase gusts locally during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms may also approach the waters by late Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 10 AM this morning given the threat for flash flooding. This currently covers the Central Virginia Piedmont across much of the Shenandoah Valley into the Potomac Highlands. Total forecast amounts within this watch area are between 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches where convective and/or terrain enhancements take place. Overall, 1-hour rainfall amounts have largely been capped around 1 inch.
However, 3-hour amounts continue to push to around 2 inches which would support flash flooding where more vulnerable in nature.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent onshore flow (albeit light) is expected to persist into early next week. Repeated rounds of flooding are possible, especially along vulnerable shoreline. Given the light nature of the flow, flooding should stay in the minor realm.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1004 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024
SYNOPSIS
Low pressure will drift off the Carolina Coast through the weekend.
High pressure will build overhead Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will approach from the Midwest Wednesday, then cross by Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
MID-MORNING UPDATE...
With the system being much more progressive, the forecast has been challenging this morning. SPC mesoanalyses show the 300mb jet further east than anticipated, the more favorable ascent already moving over eastern Maryland. Consequently, rainfall totals are looking to fall below forecast and isolated flooding is becoming less of a concern, and the Flood Watch has been allowed to expire.
Behind the main swath of moderate rain, scattered showers linger. Ceilings and visibility have quickly rebounded behind the exiting rain shield, but there is uncertainty on if MVFR or lower conditions return with any scattered rain moving in. Some guidance continues to tank conditions through the afternoon and into the overnight, though CAMs (which currently have a better handle on things, though still not as progressive) aren't nearly as pessimistic. Some thinning of the cloud cover is evident on satellite this morning, with even a few breaks developing along the Allegheny Ridge. Currently expect this clearing to expand slightly further east as we head into the afternoon, but likely not as far east as the Blue Ridge. High temperatures in these areas may rise a few degrees than previously forecast.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
Surface observations across the Mid-Atlantic region show light east to southeasterly flow with early morning temperatures mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s. To the south, a frontal zone sits along the North Carolina/South Carolina border, while arcing back into the Great Smoky Mountains. The 06Z RAP objective analysis shows a well established 925-850 mb theta-e boundary near the Virginia/North Carolina line. Southwesterly isentropic lift over this boundary continues to drive a shield of light to moderate rain showers over portions of the area.
Based on the latest radar trends, the more focused area of locally heavy showers have been maintained over areas of Mineral County back into Grant County in West Virginia. This is largely due to a series of mid-level impulses as seen on multi-channel water vapor imagery. The shield of more intense shower activity is expected to push into the Flood Watch area which spans the Central Virginia Piedmont back into the Shenandoah Valley and Potomac Highlands. This watch remains in effect until 10 AM this morning. Total rainfall amounts within this watch area could push into the 1 to 3 inch range, locally up to 4 inches depending on any convective elements.
Overall lightning activity has been non-existent at this point owing to a very limited reservoir of instability. The latest analysis shows under 100 J/kg of most-unstable CAPE, mainly along and west of the Allegheny Front. As the mentioned impulses aloft track eastward, expect a band of light to moderate rainfall to overspread the remainder of the area today. Outside of the watch area, total forecast amounts should range from 0.50 to 1.00 inches, locally down to a 0.10 to 0.25 inches for those northeast of D.C. Any thunderstorm threat should be limited and dependent on breaks in the clouds. By this evening, a bulk of the remaining showers are likely to focus over southern Maryland with perhaps a light mist or drizzle in the wake. Given the continued onshore flow, low clouds and patchy fog linger into the night.
Forecast temperatures remain fairly steady state thanks to the persistent onshore flow, extensive cloud cover, and threat for showers. The overall diurnal range should be on the low side as the high/low temperature spread may be around 4 to 7 degrees.
Today's highs are mainly confined to the low 60s although some mid/upper 60s are possible toward the Shenandoah Valley back into the Allegheny mountain valleys. This is where shower activity comes to an end earlier. Nighttime low temperatures stay in the 50s.
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A thick area of low cloud cover is expected to start off the day with winds gradually shifting from east to northeasterly. Aside from patchy fog and areas of drizzle, it should be a dry start to the day for most. There should also be more breaks in the clouds across the area, with even some afternoon clearing for the Shenandoah Valley and points westward. With the increase in sunshine, this will also introduce a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms. Any threat should wane by dusk given the loss of heating. Much warmer weather is expected on Sunday as high temperatures rise into the low/mid 70s, with mid/upper 60s across the higher terrain. Overnight low temperatures drop into the low/mid 50s.
Given low pressure exiting the Carolinas and high pressure off the northeastern U.S. coast, the net gradient will favor further easterly onshore flow on Monday. Despite this flow regime, mostly sunny skies are expected as heights build aloft in response to an eastern U.S. ridge. Forecast highs rise back into the upper 70s to low 80s which is close to average for mid/late May standards. Expect a shift to light southerly winds overnight with mainly clear skies. Nighttime temperatures stay fairly close to the past couple of nights.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Ridging both at the surface and aloft is expected to persist through Tuesday. This should lead to fair and dry weather with warming temperatures compared to previous days.
As the high at the surface moves offshore and ridging aloft breaks down, heat and instability will build as a trough and cold front slowly approach from the Midwest. The building instability offers enough potential energy for strong to perhaps severe thunderstorms, with the approaching front acting as a trigger to act on that energy.
Shear sufficient enough to organize storms resulting in a more widespread threat remains in question, and may ultimately lag behind the strongest instability. Predictability is low this far out, but it's a period to monitor with at least limited convective potential.
The cold front is expected to move offshore Thursday into Friday.
This will knock down humidity levels with slightly cooler temperatures as winds turn northwesterly.
AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A lengthy period of restrictions are expected today given showers and low ceilings. Any instance of thunderstorms should be limited and highly dependent on breaks in the thick low clouds. The highest confidence is around KCHO, mainly in the mid-afternoon to early evening timeframe. Elsewhere, confidence is too low to introduce into the TAF. Winds remain out of the east to southeast throughout the day, accompanied by IFR ceilings. Guidance continues to hint at LIFR ceilings by tonight which is currently reflected in the KIAD, KCHO, and KMRB TAFs. This seems reasonable given the degree of low-level moisture, onshore flow, and saturated grounds.
Expect an eventual improvement to MVFR ceilings by midday Sunday. This would include more breaks in the clouds as rainfall ends the previous night. Winds become mainly northeasterly on Sunday before shifting to east-southeasterly on Monday. VFR conditions are likely on Monday with mostly sunny skies.
Mainly VFR Tue-Wed. SHRA/TSRA chc increases Wed. Winds S/SE 5-15 kts.
MARINE
Some passing showers continue to push wind gusts up to around 15 knots. However, winds largely stay in the 5 to 10 knot range outside of such brief bursts. Onshore flow persists throughout the weekend with some uptick in wind fields by this afternoon and evening. Near 20 knot gusts are possible over the lower waters. Expect near Small Craft Advisory gusts across these waters through tonight and into much of Sunday. As such, advisories may be hoisted for this area. Onshore gradients slowly weaken into Monday which brings gusts below advisory thresholds.
Winds will turn south to southeasterly Tuesday into Wednesday. Given generally weak gradients and warmer air over relatively cooler water, most of the time should feature sub-SCA level winds, though brief channeling effects from bay/river breezes could increase gusts locally during the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms may also approach the waters by late Wednesday.
HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch remains in effect until 10 AM this morning given the threat for flash flooding. This currently covers the Central Virginia Piedmont across much of the Shenandoah Valley into the Potomac Highlands. Total forecast amounts within this watch area are between 1 to 3 inches, locally up to 4 inches where convective and/or terrain enhancements take place. Overall, 1-hour rainfall amounts have largely been capped around 1 inch.
However, 3-hour amounts continue to push to around 2 inches which would support flash flooding where more vulnerable in nature.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Persistent onshore flow (albeit light) is expected to persist into early next week. Repeated rounds of flooding are possible, especially along vulnerable shoreline. Given the light nature of the flow, flooding should stay in the minor realm.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ534-537-543.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NCDV2 | 14 mi | 48 min | E 7G | 62°F | 67°F | 29.95 | ||
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 34 mi | 48 min | S 1.9G | 63°F | 68°F | 29.98 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 39 mi | 78 min | SSE 2.9 | 63°F | 29.98 | 59°F | ||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 44 mi | 48 min | SSE 9.9G | |||||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 44 mi | 48 min | ESE 5.1G | 62°F | 66°F | 29.97 | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 46 mi | 36 min | ESE 7.8G | 60°F | 64°F | 1 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 47 mi | 48 min | ESE 5.1G | 62°F | 29.98 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 6 sm | 7 min | calm | 1/4 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain Mist | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.99 |
| KRMN STAFFORD RGNL,VA | 10 sm | 12 min | SE 05 | 2 sm | Overcast | Drizzle | 63°F | 59°F | 88% | 29.98 |
| KEZF SHANNON,VA | 14 sm | 12 min | E 04 | 10 sm | Overcast | Drizzle | 61°F | 61°F | 100% | 29.96 |
| KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA | 21 sm | 52 min | ESE 03 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | Lt Rain | 63°F | 61°F | 94% | 29.96 |
Clifton Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT 1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:13 AM EDT 1.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 09:21 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:35 PM EDT 1.18 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:43 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Clifton Beach, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.8 |
| 1 am |
| 1.1 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.2 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 0.8 |
| 7 am |
| 0.6 |
| 8 am |
| 0.4 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:01 AM EDT 1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:25 AM EDT Moonset
Sat -- 05:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Sat -- 08:23 AM EDT 0.27 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:23 PM EDT 1.13 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:42 PM EDT Moonrise
Sat -- 08:16 PM EDT Sunset
Sat -- 08:28 PM EDT 0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Maryland Point Light, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 1.2 |
| 3 am |
| 1.2 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.4 |
| 8 am |
| 0.3 |
| 9 am |
| 0.3 |
| 10 am |
| 0.4 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.4 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Sterling, VA,
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