Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquia Harbour, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 8:26PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:27 PM EDT (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 6:46AMMoonset 9:30PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1258 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
This afternoon..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Numerous showers and tstms.
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered showers.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1258 Pm Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move off the mid-atlantic coast today while a warm front lifts into the area. The front will stall out near the waters through Sunday before a cold front moves into the area Monday. The boundary will stall south of the waters for Tuesday and Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquia Harbour, VA
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location: 38.42, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 271434
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1034 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Weak low pressure will move across the area late this afternoon
into the evening which will push a weak front south of the area
late tonight. A stronger cold front will move through the area
Monday. High pressure will return to the area mid next week.

Near term through tonight
Remnant showers shifting east across the balt-wash metro area
through the midday. Weak low pressure (1011mb) is centered over
oh and will slowly shift east across the area late this
afternoon into the evening. A warm front will set up across the
southern half of the fcst area. 12z hrrr continues to prog mid
to late afternoon thunderstorms developing over the central
shenandoah county and shifting east across charlottesville. Low
end severe threat there with damaging winds and large hail as
the main threats. 0-6km flow around 30kt should keep storms
moving with flash flooding risk low despite saturated soils and
potential training convection. The low and associated front
will push south of the area later tonight with showers ending.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Sunday will likely start out quiet, but with plenty of low
clouds. Low pressure will be tracking from the mid-ms valley to
southwest ontario by late Sunday night. A sfc trof will
establish across the area during the afternoon with pwats
increasing over 1.5 inches. Widespread convection appears likely
sun afternoon and evening with potential for flash flooding
especially west of the blue ridge given saturated soils.

Convection begins to weaken and shift east late Sun night due to
loss heating and sfc trof shifting east. Convection could
redevelop east of the blue ridge Mon afternoon with actual
frontal passage.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Upper level low pressure will be slowly moving across ontario and
quebec during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame. While overall
flow will be from the SW to W aloft, there will still be
opportunities for shortwave troughs to dive through the area. It
does appear there will be two additional boundaries following
Monday's front that will drop southeast through the middle of the
week. The second (likely late Wednesday or Thursday looks to be the
stronger of the two in terms of airmass change. While this pattern
is a little unsettled, rain chances should be scattered and
instability for thunderstorms limited.

Ensemble spread increases toward the end of the weak regarding the
upper air pattern and evolution of the closed low. However, there
should be a dry period at some point as surface high pressure builds
into the area behind the cold front.

Above normal temperatures on Tuesday will decrease through the
remainder of the week behind the frontal passages. Highs will settle
into the 70s with lows in the 50s, which is near normal.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions become MVFR in late morning midday showers for
dc metros and north. Kcho is most vulnerable to t-storms today
with brief MVFR ifr conditions possible. Widespread convection
sun evening with flying restrictions likely.

Overall Tuesday and Wednesday should beVFR, but there could be some
scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm as weak fronts move
through the area.

Marine
Light and variable flow this morning becoming south as weak low
pressure approaches through the day. The weak low crosses the
va part of the chesapeake bay this evening with more variable
flow becoming nely overnight.

Flow becomes southerly Sunday with a weak cold front moving
through the waters Monday memorial day. Thunderstorms possible
this evening particularly over southern md waters then again
Sunday night into Monday memorial day as a cold front
approaches.

Winds are forecast to remain below SCA criteria Tuesday and
Wednesday, although a cold front on Wednesday could lead to slightly
higher winds.

Tides coastal flooding
Elevated water levels continue from recent onshore flow. The
immediate dc area is under and advisory until 1pm.

Weak low pressure crosses the chesapeake bay this evening with
light southerly flow this afternoon and again Sunday.

Elevated water levels persist through the rest of the holiday
weekend with straits point in st. Marys county being the most
susceptible to minor flooding, particularly on the preferred
high tide.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Baj lfr
near term... Baj lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Ads
aviation... Baj ads lfr
marine... Baj ads lfr
tides coastal flooding... Baj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 18 mi39 min SE 8 G 8 71°F 73°F1011.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 36 mi39 min S 1 G 2.9 73°F 68°F1011.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 42 mi117 min NNW 1.9 71°F 1013 hPa56°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi39 min SSE 8 G 8.9
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 48 mi39 min ESE 11 G 12 71°F 68°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA6 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast71°F63°F77%1013.5 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA7 mi31 minN 010.00 miOvercast72°F60°F66%1012.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi32 minSSE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F62°F63%1011.8 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA22 mi32 minN 010.00 miOvercast73°F58°F60%1012.2 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA23 mi31 minE 310.00 miOvercast72°F59°F64%1013.7 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA23 mi29 minE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F58°F61%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW7
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NW6W3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E4CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4S5CalmNW3CalmNW14CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3CalmSW4SW4CalmSW3SW3W4W6W5W7W8
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2 days agoE7SE4E6E10
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Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:37 AM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:43 AM EDT     1.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:29 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.1-0.10.20.61.11.41.61.71.51.10.80.50.1-0.1-0.10.10.50.811.11.10.80.6

Tide / Current Tables for Quantico Creek, Virginia
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Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:26 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:48 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:45 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:39 AM EDT     1.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:21 PM EDT     1.65 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.10.30.71.31.71.91.91.71.30.90.50.2-0-00.30.71.21.51.61.61.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.