Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aquia Harbour, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 4:58PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:55 PM EST (20:55 UTC) Moonrise 1:13PMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 337 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of this afternoon..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 337 Pm Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure developing along the carolina coast today will strengthen into a gale, then move towards long island tonight. High pressure will build in from the ohio valley for the weekend. Gale warnings may be required Friday, and small craft advisories may be needed through early Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aquia Harbour, VA
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location: 38.42, -77.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 152002
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
302 pm est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure along the carolina coast will move north toward
long island by tonight. High pressure will build in from the
ohio valley over the weekend. A cold front will likely approach
from the great lakes early next week.

Near term through tonight
Surface low pressure center is over eastern north carolina this
afternoon with high pressure off the coast of maine, wedged down
the eastern side of the appalachians. A closed upper level is
near evansville in. Best frontogenetical forcing lifting north
of the area, with precipitation rates lessening. Seeing freezing
line lifting north through dc and baltimore areas, but still
firmly below near pa and west of blue ridge. Thermals aloft are
verifying lower, thus warning criteria is being met for snow in
northern counties, and have had to make some adjustments through
the day. Also, a few reports of significant icing above 1500 ft
elevation have been received from central virginia. As low to
the south lifts north this evening, should continue to see
warming aloft, which along with lesser precipitation rates, will
result in a gradual changeover to sleet and freezing rain (rain
where above freezing) though some northwestern areas may remain
mostly snow. Dry slot is also working in from the west, which
may result in mostly drizzle freezing drizzle by evening.

Adjustments to advisories warnings are likely depending on where
the freezing line resides.

With heavier precipitation moving out, we will also be
canceling the flood watch early.

The upper level system will approach tonight and will combine
with some wraparound moisture to bring a last burst of rain
overnight, which could even change back to snow as temperatures
aloft cool. Some additional accumulations to an inch or so will
be possible over mainly the mountains, but can't rule out some
across areas north west of dc and baltimore as well.

Temperatures will largely be steady overnight, though some
cooling may occur late in the west.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Low pressure pushes quickly northeast away from us on Friday,
with weak high pressure dominating late Friday through Saturday
night. Breezy conditions will persist on Friday, with some
upslope snow showers possible with only light accumulations.

Drying and warming will the the predominate theme elsewhere,
with highs rebounding back towards 50 and lows near freezing.

Some high elevation freezing drizzle can't be ruled out Friday
night thanks to a bit of low level moisture being lifted on the
ridges, but otherwise, do not expect any significant precip.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Cloudy but dry conditions are forecast for Sunday, with temperatures
reaching into the upper 40s to around 50. A cold front will progress
through the area on Monday as a vigorous shortwave trough
traverses the great lakes region. With the main forcing for
ascent associated with the trough displaced well to our north
and limited moisture ahead of the cold front, any precipitation
is expected to be light and mainly confined to upslope favored
areas to the west of the blue ridge. High pressure will move
back in for Tuesday, resulting in quiet weather conditions and
below normal temperatures with highs in the 40s.

Beyond Tuesday, model guidance begins to diverge. The GFS has a mid-
level shortwave moving through during the day Wednesday, along with
an associated reinforcing cold front at the surface. This solution
has very little precipitation associated with the front. The euro on
the other hand maintains high pressure overhead, with quiet weather
conditions across the area.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Transition to rain is occurring in the metro areas, with
moderate snow still likely at mrb for several more hours.

Precipitation will likely transition to light rain drizzle
(freezing conditions most likely at mrb) this evening. Cigs
will be ifr and some ifr vis (although periods of lifr will be
possible), and winds will be gusty from the northeast before
transitioning to northwest later tonight. One last chance of
rain snow showers may cross the area overnight before ending.

Precip should end by late tonight withVFR dominating Friday
through Saturday night.

Vfr conditions are expected through the long term period.

Marine
Gusty NE winds between strong high pressure to the north and
developing coastal low moving up the east coast from the
carolinas. Gale conditions are near the mid bay and will likely
expand northward. There will be a lull as the low passes
overhead this evening, but are expected to increase again as the
low passes late tonight. Expanded the gale warning north a zone,
and this may need to be examined further. Gales may need to be
extended into Friday morning, although at the moment it looks
like winds will subside a bit by daybreak. Solid SCA on NW flow
behind departing low expected all day before diminishing in the
evening.

Lighter winds expected Saturday as high pressure builds
overhead from the ohio valley.

Light winds expected on Sunday through Monday morning. Some
stronger wind gusts are possible Monday afternoon, but not
expected to reach SCA criteria at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
Tidal anomalies will continue to increase today in onshore ne
flow, with perhaps near minor flooding possible during this
evening's tide cycle. Straits point and dc SW waterfront appear
most susceptible to reaching minor flood. NW winds will cause
levels to lower Friday into the weekend.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 13th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.17 inches (1886)
5. 57.54 inches (1948)
6. 57.38 inches (2018)
7. 54.29 inches (1937)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 62.66 inches (2003)
2. 62.35 inches (1889)
3. 61.68 inches (2018)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.05 inches (1972)
3. 58.09 inches (1996)
4. 57.65 inches (2018)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Flood watch until midnight est tonight for dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for mdz003>006-
501>503-505.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz011-504-506>508.

Flood watch until midnight est tonight for mdz011-013-014-
016>018-504-506-508.

Va... Winter storm warning until 1 am est Friday for vaz025-503-504-
508.

Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for vaz026>031-
505>507.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz038>040-050>053-501-502.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for vaz036-
037.

Flood watch until midnight est tonight for vaz052>057.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 4 am est Friday for wvz050>053-055-
501>506.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am to 6 pm est Friday for
anz531>534-537-539>543.

Gale warning until 6 am est Friday for anz532>534-537-540>543.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Friday for anz530-535-536-
538.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am est Friday for
anz531-539.

Synopsis... Ads rcm
near term... Ads
short term... Ads
long term... Kjp
aviation... Ads kjp
marine... Ads kjp
tides coastal flooding... Ads
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 18 mi44 min NE 4.1 G 7 40°F 48°F1014.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 36 mi38 min NE 5.1 G 13 35°F 48°F1017.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 42 mi146 min NNE 5.1 35°F 1021 hPa34°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi44 min ENE 9.9 G 12
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 48 mi38 min NNE 13 G 19 42°F 53°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA6 mi61 minN 7 G 141.25 miLight Rain36°F35°F100%1017.6 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA7 mi60 minNE 18 G 241.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist and Breezy38°F37°F100%1016.7 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA12 mi81 minNNE 131.75 miRain37°F37°F100%1015.9 hPa
Warrenton-Fauquier Airport, VA22 mi81 minN 71.25 miHeavy Rain34°F31°F91%1016.9 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA23 mi60 minN 111.75 miFog/Mist34°F33°F97%1018.8 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA23 mi60 minNNE 10 G 152.75 miRain Fog/Mist35°F34°F99%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from RMN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN8N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3NE5NE7NE7NE6NE6NE4NE3NE6NE10
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1 day agoN8N8N8N7N8N6N7N9NW3CalmN10N6N4N7N7N4N5NW7N10NW8N6NW7NW8N5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N6N3N8N6NW9N10NW8NW7NW7NW8NW10NW9NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Aquia Creek, Virginia (2)
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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:44 AM EST     0.16 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 12:00 PM EST     1.12 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:43 PM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.811.11.110.80.60.30.20.20.20.50.711.1

Tide / Current Tables for Liverpool Point, Maryland
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Liverpool Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:37 AM EST     0.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:54 AM EST     First Quarter
Thu -- 11:39 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:56 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:52 PM EST     1.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.210.70.50.30.20.20.30.60.91.11.21.21.10.80.50.30.20.20.30.50.91.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.