Sunrise 5:57 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 10:44 AM   Moonset 12:49 AM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 938 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Rest of tonight - SE winds 10 kt - .becoming E late. Waves 1 ft. Showers. Patchy fog late this evening. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm - . Decreasing to 1 nm or less. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and scattered tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less. Wed night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Thu night - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Fri - NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Fri night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely through the night. A chance of showers after midnight. Sun - NE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 Synopsis For Flagler Beach To Jupiter Inlet Out To 60 Nm 1009 Pm Edt Tue May 14 2024
Synopsis - A warm front north of the waters this evening will keep winds moderate to fresh from the south-southeast through tonight. Low pressure will meander from the ohio valley to the carolina coast over the next couple days, dragging a weakening cold front toward the local waters by Wednesday night. Scattered showers and lightning storms will continue to be possible through midweek. The cold front will become stationary before dissipating over south florida late this week.
Gulf stream hazards - South to southeast winds 15 to 20 knots.
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream based on the real time ocean forecast system as of Tuesday, may 14th.
41 nautical miles east of ponce inlet. 29 nautical miles east of port canaveral. 24 nautical miles east of sebastian inlet. 17 nautical miles east of fort pierce inlet. 10 nautical miles east of saint lucie inlet.

FXUS61 KLWX 150117 AAA AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 917 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024

SYNOPSIS
Slow moving low pressure will gradually push across the Mid-Atlantic region through Wednesday. Drier conditions return briefly Thursday before another storm system brings the threat for showers and storms Friday into the weekend. Weak high pressure tries to build back over the area Monday with additional shower and thunderstorm chances heading into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Batch of light to moderate rain on the north side of low pressure center near Greensboro, NC will continue to push northeast tonight remaining generally east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. A mid-level dry slot is trying to work into the Appalachians, but unsure how far east it would get. While steady rain is likely to end by 12Z Wed, areas of light rain or drizzle will likely persist through mid afternoon Wed, especially for areas north and east of the Potomac River.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
The low pressure off the Carolinas will gradually move further offshore, with the incoming low from the west building into the area. QPF amounts will be higher in the northeast where the main precip axis will have moved towards. Given the stabilizing atmosphere tomorrow, expect light to moderate rain to move through rather than convective, heavier elements. Temperatures likely remain in the 60s for most of the area. Rain should gradually wind down Wednesday night as the upper level trough axis passes, although low clouds likely stick around.

Thursday and Thursday night should feature a relative break in the action as a narrow upper ridge moves overhead and surface high pressure wedges in from the north. However, the now-stacked low off the coast won't be too far away, and it's possible clouds and a few showers continue to rotate westward into the area. A few showers could also form along the Alleghenies due to upslope flow. High temperatures will likely rebound into the 70s, but this will be contingent on cloud cover.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
A broad mid-level trough over the Central Plains Friday moves across the TN Valley toward the Southeast/Carolina coast over the weekend. There's some model discrepancies regarding the exact intensity and placement of the mid-level trough, and its associated surface low. Most of the guidance tracks these features just south of the area, but exactly how far is going to determine whether higher rain chances are realized over parts of the area this weekend.

Friday looks to start off dry as weak mid-level ridging overhead moves east into the Atlantic. A surface high over New England will cause keeps winds southeast to east through the weekend, though where the surface low tracks will also impact how wind direction changes over the area. By Sunday winds turn more northeast, then north to northwest as a weak cold front crosses the area.

As the forecast stands, the highest rain chances look to be late Friday night through Saturday evening as the higher PWATs and forcing aloft are maximized over the area, and mostly along and east of the Blue Ridge. Coverage of showers Sunday looks to be less as the surface low moves into the Atlantic and backing winds bring in drier air from the north. High pressure builds in Monday, possibly bringing another day or two of mostly dry conditions.

High temperatures Friday reach their seasonal values, in the mid to upper 70s, then drop to the upper 60s to low 70s Saturday due to extensive cloud cover and precip. Temperatures rebound through the start of next week, eventually reaching the low 80s. Overnight lows settle in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

IFR cigs are expected overnight in light rain, possibly improving late Wed or early Wed evening.

Easterly winds will build in Wednesday with low ceilings continuing.
Some light ceiling improvements may happen later in the day on Wednesday but showers will continue through Wednesday evening before tapering off.

There may be a break in activity on Thursday, but a few showers and low clouds may stick around with low pressure remaining stationary off the coast.

VFR and dry conditions to start Friday, then showers and possibly some thunderstorms move into the area during the afternoon to evening. Sub-VFR conditions are likely at some point Friday night into Saturday night. At least scattered showers look to continue for much of the day Saturday. However, there is still a lot of model discrepancy regarding the location of a surface low to our south. If it remains close to the area, that will bring us more rain and longer period of sub-VFR conditions.

MARINE
SCA winds are expected overnight, but should start to decrease by Wed afternoon as low pressure center passes over the middle Chesapeake Bay.

Sub-SCA conditions could prevail for much of the day Friday into Saturday. During this time winds are primarily east to southeast at 5-10 knots. An area of low pressure approaches from the west late Friday into the weekend, bringing another round of widespread showers and some thunderstorms. Depending on how close the low pressure gets to the local waters, there could be a brief period of SCA winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This is most likely to occur in the open waters of the Chesapeake Bay south of North Beach. Still, there is a lot of uncertainty regarding exactly where the surface low will track.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Minor coastal flooding remains possible at high tide at sensitive locations through at least Wednesday morning as south to southeast winds continue. While Rain showers are continuing to overspread the area this afternoon for the terminals. MVFR to IFR ceilings will be popular cross the terminals this afternoon through Wednesday with the shield of precipitation moving in. An isolated thunderstorm is possible at CHO and MRB this afternoon into tonight, but not a high enough chance to include in the TAF. South to southeast winds 5-10 kt expected through tonight.tide levels have remained steady, or even dropped slightly over the past 12-18 hours there is still enough of an anomaly for Annapolis, Straits Point, and DC Waterfront to approach or just reach minor flood stage. The increase in southerly winds for tonight is likely to result in more abundant coastal flooding, with Coastal Flood Advisories needed for several locations. Coastal flood concerns diminish Wednesday night into Thursday as northerly winds push water down the bay.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ530>532- 539-540.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ533-534- 537-541-543.

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Aquia Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:37 AM EDT     1.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:44 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:22 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Aquia Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

Quantico Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:34 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:16 AM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:43 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:45 PM EDT     1.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:04 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Quantico Creek, Virginia, Tide feet

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