Sunday, April22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:54PM Sunday April 22, 2018 2:57 AM EDT (06:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 12:53AM Illumination 44% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 132 Am Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
Overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain.
Wed..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers likely through the night. A chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Sun Apr 22 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. An expansive area of high pressure will build eastward from the great lakes region through the weekend before moving off the new england coast Monday. An area of low pressure over the deep south will approach the region mid week. Small craft advisories may be needed late Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 220109
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
909 pm edt Sat apr 21 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes will slowly move east into
the northeast u.S. By Sunday night. This high will move offshore
Monday. A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to
the region Monday night through the middle of the week.

Near term through Sunday
The primary center of a sprawling high pressure is centered
over the great lakes this evening, with a second center off the
virginia coast. This high will dominate our weather into
Monday, providing mostly dry and slightly cooler than average
conditions, though temperatures will be slowly moderating
towards normal.

Tonight, while the high will be overhead, a mid and upper level
wind speed MAX will be centered just north of the area. Mid and
high level clouds will continue to stream over the area and
could become thicker at times through the night. These clouds
will likely be enough to prevent temps from getting too close to
freezing in the growing season region. Thus, no frost or freeze
headlines. Temps will get chilly, with colder spots in the 30s,
but along and east of i-81 it should generally be no lower than
the upper 30s.

Clouds will remain through much of Sunday, and in fact lower a
bit. As the axis of a shortwave trough passes the region late
in the day, there could even be a stray sprinkle or light
shower. Guidance depicting this potential concentrate it near
the appalachians of eastern west virginia and western virginia,
though one or two models do show a little light precip near
southern md. For the time being have the forecast dry since odds
remain low, but if this trend continues, may have to introduce
an isolated shower sprinkle into the forecast. While clouds will
dominate on Sunday, there should be enough insolation, coupled
with the higher starting point, to bring temps back to the 60s
for mores spots once again.

Short term Sunday night through Monday night
Odds of precip diminish Sunday night as a weak ridge moves
overhead. Clouds should also diminish, but there will likely
still be enough, combined with the continued moderation of the
air mass, to keep temps above frost freeze thresholds, and in
fact, it should mostly stay in the 40s.

The ridge aloft pushes northeast past us on Monday as the closed
low moves across the lower mississippi valley. At the surface,
the high will move off the coast. This will allow clouds to
return, and in fact guidance is now edging precip into west-
central va by day's end. However, there will still be enough
insolation to boost temps into the 60s for most of the region.

As the low slowly pushes northeastward toward us Monday night,
the chance of precip will continue to increase from southwest
to northeast as the night progresses. Temps should be warm
enough for plain rain even at the higher elevations, though some
spots could edge into the upper 30s. Otherwise, temps will
mostly stay in the 40s with the clouds preventing any
radiational cooling.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
Early on Tuesday, we will be dealing with a couple different
features that will act together to bring precipitation to the
region. First, the surface low moving out of the southeast and
developing off the north carolina coast. The second is a cut-off
upper low that will move out of the southeast into the southern
ohio valley. Recent model runs are relatively consistent with
one another, and begin to merge this cut-off upper low with the
main axis of the jet stream. As this occurs, the resulting
shortwave moves into our area from the west Tuesday evening. The
combination of lift provided by the shortwave and the surface
low moving up the eastern seaboard should bring a period of
moderate rainfall Tuesday night, and continuing into Wednesday
as light to moderate rainfall. Temperatures on Tuesday and
Wednesday will remain slightly below average thanks to this
unsettled pattern.

Things should taper off to lingering showers on Wednesday
evening, as the low pressure system lifts to the north. However,
unsettled weather will continue in the form of light showers on
Thursday, as a relatively strong shortwave moves south of the
area. A weak surface low begins to form off the nc va coastline,
in association with this shortwave, late Thursday. This low
should quickly be taken to sea and have little effect on the
area. Temperatures on Thursday will be very similar to Tuesday
and Wednesday. With so many disturbances moving through the
area, it is going to be hard to get really warm.

A few lingering showers very early on Friday should taper off,
and skies should clear early in the day. A more potent low
pressure system will be moving along the us canada border
through the day Friday, but the cold front associated with this
system will affect us sometime during the day on Friday. Model
spread is great with exactly when the front will pass through at
this time, but a period of precipitation is possible as this
moves through. The timing of this front will be a big
determining factor when it comes to temperatures on Friday
afternoon, but for now the latest thinking is that the front
will move through early to mid-afternoon, allowing for
temperatures to at least get closer to average for this time of
year.

The development of this low pressure system beyond Friday
introduces great uncertainty to the forecast. The GFS brings
precipitation to our northern areas as the low pressure system
strengthens in the northeast, while the euro brings practically
nothing to the area on Saturday. Some ensembles do support the
possibility for some rain on Saturday, but the key is that it
does look to be light at this point if we do see any.

Temperatures look to return to below average.

Aviation 01z Sunday through Thursday
Vfr thru Monday all terminals as high pressure dominates. Winds
mostly light and variable, though becoming easterly Monday. Cigs
and vis may diminish in rain later Monday night, especially at
cho. Least likely terminal to be impacted through Monday night
is bwi.

A very unsettled pattern will develop on Tuesday, and last
through Thursday, as several systems move across the region. Low
clouds will certainly be on the table throughout the long-term
period, so expect sub-vfr conditions throughout much of this
period.

Marine
Winds light through Monday morning, generally 5-10 knots on the
waters. Southeasterly flow increases Monday as high pressure
slides off the coast and low pressure approaches from the
southwest. SCA level gusts may begin late Monday or Monday night
as the system approaches.

The primary concern in the long term will be out ahead of a
developing surface low on Tuesday along the nc coast, which will
move north into the area. Windy conditions can be expected on
the waters, bringing about the possibility for sca. Wind should
be calmer by Wednesday.

Tides coastal flooding
Persistent onshore flow will develop Monday and continue Tuesday
with an approaching storm system. This will likely result in
increased tidal anomalies, and possibly some coastal flooding,
by the middle part of the upcoming work week.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Ads rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Rcm cjl
marine... Rcm cjl
tides coastal flooding... Rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi39 min S 2.9 G 4.1 1028.2 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi39 min S 2.9 G 2.9 1028.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi147 min S 4.1 50°F 1029 hPa40°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 53°F1028.8 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi39 min SSW 6 G 7
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi27 min S 7.8 G 12 51°F 1029.3 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi39 min SSW 7 G 8.9 49°F 1029.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi39 min SW 6 G 7 49°F 54°F1029.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi57 min S 4.1 G 5.1 50°F 51°F1029.7 hPa (+0.0)40°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi61 minSSE 510.00 miFair51°F41°F69%1029.6 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi62 minN 07.00 miFair49°F36°F62%1030.1 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi2 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast47°F33°F59%1029.4 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi62 minSE 410.00 miFair51°F37°F62%1028.8 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE13E11E7E6CalmNW6CalmCalmSE4S6SE4S6SE5E4E3CalmCalmNE6CalmCalmS5S4S5S5
1 day agoCalmNE4N7NW7NW5NW7NW11NW15
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2 days agoCalmN4N11NE8W6NW5NW5S4S6W4NW12NW21
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Tide / Current Tables for Goose Bay, Port Tobacco River, Potomac River, Maryland
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Goose Bay
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:35 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:32 AM EDT     1.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:07 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 04:32 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:26 PM EDT     1.64 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.70.40.20.20.40.81.21.61.81.81.61.20.90.60.30.20.20.40.81.21.51.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Potomac River, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 04:58 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:40 AM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:08 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:46 PM EDT     First Quarter
Sun -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:34 PM EDT     1.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.80.60.40.20.20.20.50.81.21.31.31.210.70.50.30.20.10.20.50.81.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.