Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Port Tobacco Village, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 6:30PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 3:08 PM EDT (19:08 UTC) Moonrise 1:19PMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 47% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening...
This afternoon..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the night.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
ANZ500 136 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build over the waters through tonight while a weak wave of low pressure passes by to the south. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday and high pressure will build overhead for Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will pass through the waters Saturday. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for Thursday, and again Friday afternoon through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Port Tobacco Village, MD
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location: 38.44, -77.11     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 161816
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
216 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
A wave of low pressure will pass by to the south tonight before
a cold front passes through the area Wednesday. High pressure
will build eastward from the ohio valley into the mid- atlantic
Thursday before moving offshore Friday. Another cold front will
pass through Saturday and high pressure will build overhead for
early next week.

Near term through tonight
A boundary will remain to the south through tonight while
upper-level high remains over the southeastern CONUS and an
upper-level trough digs through the great lakes. A southwest
flow aloft associated with the jetstream in between these
systems has caused high and mid-level clouds this afternoon.

There have been some breaks of sunshine as well, allowing for
high temps to reach upper 50s and lower 60s for most locations.

An upper-level disturbance (potent jetmax) will pass through the
area tonight in the southwest flow aloft. There will be enough
shortwave energy combined with lift associated with the right
entrance of the upper-level jet to our north for weak surface
low to develop on the nearly stationary boundary to the south.

As the low passes by to the south, thicker clouds will
overspread the area tonight and there may even be a period of
rain across central virginia into southern maryland. Latest
guidance continues to show that the low should be far enough to
the south for the washington dc, baltimore and points north and
west to be dry though. The disturbance will move off to our east
by daybreak and clouds will thin out toward morning. Seasonably
chilly conditions are expected tonight with min temps in the 30s
along the allegheny front to the 40s across most other
locations, to near 50 lower 50s in downtown
washington baltimore as well as the va piedmont and southern
maryland.

Short term Wednesday through Thursday night
The wave of low pressure will continue to move off to the east
Wednesday while the upper-level trough over the great lakes
shifts east into new england. The cold front associated with
this system will pass through the area during the morning and
midday hours. A wind shift to the west and northwest is expected
behind the boundary, and it will become windy during this time.

Frequent gusts around 30 to 40 mph are likely over much of the
area, with even higher gusts around 45 mph over the mountains.

The downsloping west to northwest flow combined with sunshine
will actually allow for temps to reach well into the 60s for
most areas despite cold advection.

However, the cold advection will take over Wednesday night as
canadian high pressure builds toward the area behind the
boundary. It will turn out quite chilly, with min temps dipping
into the 20s in the mountains and mid to upper 30s for most
other locations. Do feel that there will be enough wind to
prevent widespread frost for most areas, but some frost is
possible toward morning in sheltered valleys as well.

High pressure will continue to build overhead for Thursday
through Thursday night, brining dry and chilly conditions. Light
winds, mainly clear skies and dry air will provide a great setup
for radiational cooling Thursday night. Lows will drop into the
lower to middle 30s for many areas, and more widespread frost is
possible during this time as well as possible freezing
conditions.

Long term Friday through Tuesday
To start out on Friday, high pressure will be centered overhead.

The morning will be a cool one, as temperatures rise up from
what will likely be the coolest temperatures of the fall season
to date. With ample sunshine through the morning and early
afternoon, temperatures will rebound to near 60 degrees. A few
high clouds will be possible during the afternoon, but the vast
majority of the day should stay sunny.

At mid-upper levels, a potent trough will slide down from central
canada in northwesterly flow and move over the great lakes region
Friday into Friday night. As the trough progresses
southeastward, it will also act to absorb and ultimately shear
out an upper level low currently located over the desert
southwest. Differential cyclonic vorticity advection ahead of
the lead shearing out trough will provide dynamic forcing for
ascent over the region Friday night, leading to chances for rain
across the area. By Saturday morning, the surface cold front
associated with the system will have passed through, whisking
most of the low-level moisture out of the area. On Saturday,
we'll be embedded in northwesterly flow in the wake of the cold
front. Downslope flow in the lee of the appalachians should keep
locations east of the blue ridge predominantly dry, but upslope
northwesterly flow should lead to some showers over higher
elevations along and west of the blue ridge. By Saturday night,
much cooler air will work into the area, with 850 hpa
temperatures dropping well below 0c. This may allow any leftover
upslope showers to mix with snow over the higher elevations to
the west of the blue ridge. Any leftover upslope showers over
the higher terrain should dissipate by early Sunday morning as
high pressure starts to build into the ohio valley.

The aforementioned area of high pressure will move overhead for
Sunday afternoon through Monday, providing a quiet stretch of fall
weather. Temperatures will run around ten degrees below average on
Sunday and Monday, with high temperatures in the 50s and low
temperatures in the 30s to near 40.

Aviation 17z Tuesday through Saturday
Vfr conditions and dry conditions will continue through this
afternoon. A weak wave of low pressure will pass by to the south
tonight. A period of MVFR CIGS are possible late this evening
into the overnight as the low passes by to the south.VFR
conditions will return by Wednesday morning.

Gusty west and northwest winds are expected behind a cold front
late Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Gusts around
30 knots are possible, but wind speeds should be a bit lighter
at kcho. Winds will diminish later Wednesday evening as high
pressure builds overhead. The high will remain overhead through
Thursday night.

Vfr conditions are expected on Friday, with mostly sunny skies
in the morning giving away to a few mid-high level clouds
during the afternoon. Sub-vfr conditions could be possible
Friday night in association with some showers.VFR conditions
should return Saturday afternoon through Monday, with mostly dry
conditions and gusty northwesterly winds in the wake of the
cold front.

Marine
A wave of low pressure will pass by to the south tonight. The
gradient should be light enough for winds to remain below sca
criteria. A cold front will pass through the waters Wednesday.

Gusty west and northwest winds are expected behind the cold
front. A small craft advisory is in effect for the waters
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, and for the bay and
lower tidal potomac river Wednesday night. Gusts around 30 knots
are likely Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening. There are
stronger winds around 35 to 40 knots at the top of the mixing
layer. It is not out of the question that these winds could mix
down to the surface, but guidance shows that winds are not quite
perfectly aligned directionally with height... So there is a
better chance that not all of those winds will mix down.

Therefore, kept the SCA instead of a gale warning, but it will
be close.

High pressure will build overhead for Thursday through Thursday
night.

Sca levels winds appear possible Friday through Friday night in
southerly flow ahead of an approaching system, and then again on
Saturday through much of the weekend in northwesterly flow
behind the departing system.

Tides coastal flooding
The northwest flow has weakened and a light flow is expected
tonight. This will cause water that has piled up in the southern
bay to move back north tonight into early Wednesday. Therefore,
anomalies will rise sharply to around a quarter to three
quarters of a foot above normal (based on whats going on
upstream). Latest thinking is that water levels will remain
below minor flooding thresholds since the lunar cycle is less
favorable. A strong offshore flow will return for later
Wednesday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 11 am Wednesday to 6 am edt Thursday
for anz530>534-537>543.

Small craft advisory from 11 am to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
anz535-536.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Bjl
short term... Bjl
long term... Kjp
aviation... Bjl kjp
marine... Bjl kjp
tides coastal flooding... Bjl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NCDV2 9 mi39 min SW 1.9 G 2.9
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 30 mi39 min WNW 7 G 12 60°F 66°F1021 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi99 min N 1.9 58°F 1022 hPa41°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi39 min NW 5.1 G 8 57°F 71°F1021.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi45 min NNW 7 G 8
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 38 mi39 min NNW 1.9 G 5.8 58°F 1021.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 39 mi39 min N 5.1 G 9.9 57°F 1022 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi39 min NNW 4.1 G 6
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 48 mi69 min NNE 4.1 G 6 56°F 68°F1022.2 hPa (-2.2)43°F

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA11 mi73 minNNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy53°F44°F72%1022.4 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair56°F46°F70%1023.4 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA20 mi73 minWNW 810.00 miFair61°F44°F54%1022 hPa
Fredericksburg, Shannon Airport, VA22 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair56°F43°F65%1022 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS4S5SW3CalmCalmCalmW4W5W4W3NW3W3SW3SW4SW5W3SW7SW7SW8SW7SW9SW8
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2 days agoNW18
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N10N6N5N4NW4N7N10NW5NW7NW7N93N3NW4NW6NW4NW7NW5NW3NW4W4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Upper Cedar Point Light, Maryland
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Upper Cedar Point Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:21 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:24 AM EDT     1.15 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:09 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:38 PM EDT     1.24 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.50.30.20.30.40.70.91.11.11.10.90.70.50.30.20.30.40.711.11.21.2

Tide / Current Tables for Maryland Point Light, Maryland
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Maryland Point Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:20 AM EDT     1.10 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:34 PM EDT     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.90.70.50.30.20.20.40.60.911.11.10.90.70.40.30.20.20.40.60.91.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.