Monday, June25, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Taylors Island, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:34PM Monday June 25, 2018 3:43 AM EDT (07:43 UTC) Moonrise 5:20PMMoonset 3:01AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 131 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning. A chance of showers through the night.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 131 Am Edt Mon Jun 25 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross our region tonight. High pressure will build over us Monday into Tuesday. A low pressure system moving across the great lakes will bring a warm front Wednesday followed by a cold front Thursday. High pressure will build behind the front by the end of the week and into the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Taylors Island, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 250633
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
233 am edt Mon jun 25 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will drop south of the area this morning. High
pressure will build from the great lakes Monday, toward the
southern new england coast Tuesday, and offshore by Wednesday.

Meanwhile, low pressure tracks across the carolinas Monday night
into Tuesday, and then off the outer banks by Wednesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
As of 1015 pm edt Sunday...

convection slowly waning this evening across NE nc counties.

Scattered to numerous covective cells developed late this
afternoon into the evening from central va into maryland
counties... Which then pushed SE toward the hampton
roads tidewater region this evening. Despite weakening lapse
rates, just enough wind aloft for several strong to severe
storms this evening. Have adjusted pops to ramp down a bit
faster overnight as cool front drops across the area and
drier air arrives from the nw, along with decreasing clouds.

Some more patchy fog toward morning over the piedmont. Still
warm tonight with lows ranging from the upper 60s NW to the mid
70s se.

Short term 6 am this morning through Wednesday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

24 12z ECMWF nam cmc have taken a more pessimistic turn from
Monday night through Wednesday for SRN va NE nc, while the
24 12z GFS still brings drier air trough the region Monday night
into Tuesday. High pressure is progged to build from the great
lakes Monday toward the SRN new england coast Tuesday, then
offshore Wednesday. Meanwhile, and upper low is progged to
trundle across the carolinas Monday night and Tuesday and off
the outer banks Wednesday. This could result is some bands of
showers and embedded tstms in low-level easterly flow. 20-30%
pops have been introduced for the far SRN tier of the area along
with increased cloud cover. Farther n, drier and partly cloudy
to mostly clear conditions are expected to prevail. Highs Monday
through Wednesday will mainly be in the 80s, with lows
primarily in the 60s, with low 70s across the se.

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday
As of 400 pm edt Sunday...

an approaching mid and upper-level trough with an attendant
shortwave will result in a chance for showers and thunderstorms
Thursday morning through the early afternoon. Showers may linger
across the south into Friday morning, but there is enough model
disagreement on this that chance pops could be removed in later
updates.

High pressure builds in later on Friday and through the remainder of
the weekend, per the 12z global models, keeping much of the area
rain-free. However, would like to see better run-to-run consistency
before completely pulling slight chance pops out of the forecast.

Considering that it is summertime and dew points are expected to be
in the 70s with southerly flow, would hesitate to completely rule
out an isolated shower storm across the area fri, sat, and sun
afternoon.

Expect high temperatures in the low to mid 90s thu-sun with lows in
the low to mid 70s. Glancing at the beginning of july, GFS and euro
ensembles both suggest that warmer temperatures will sign up for an
extended stay over the mid-atlantic and northeastern u.S.

Aviation 07z Monday through Friday
As of 215 am edt Monday...

showers and tstms were moving off the NE nc coast early this
morning, withVFR conditions prevailing at the TAF sites. A cold
front will push south of the region this morning, with winds
becoming northerly and starting to usher a drier airmass into
the cwa.

High pressure will build fm the great lakes region ese to off
the SRN new england coast tonight into Tue night, as a wave of
low pressure moves acrs the carolinas to the coast. Still
expectingVFR conditions at the TAF sites today into tue
morning, but with more clouds coming back into ric and ecg
tonight into Tue morning. A sml chc or slgt chc of showers will
move back into ecg, orf, and possibly phf later Tue morning into
tue night, due to the wave of low pressure. Low pressure
lingers off the outer banks into wed, as another area of low
pressure moves into the great lakes. A weak front crosses the
area thu.

Marine
As of 230 am edt Monday...

a cold front moves south of the waters this morning then stalls
across nc later today. Winds shift into the N today, NE tonite, then
e on Tue as high pressure tracks north of the region. No flags in
the short term as wind remain below 20 kt into Tue due to the lack
of any significant advection. Seas 2-4 ft, waves 1-2 ft.

Models then diverge on how strong the ese fetch becomes late tue
into Wed as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of low pressure
that develops on the bndry across the carolinas. Wna suggests seas
build to arnd 5 ft across the SRN coastal waters along with sse
winds 15-20 kts. Given a low confidence forecast, bumped up wind
speeds and seas a bit, but kept them at or just below minimal sca
levels for now. Later shifts can raise SCA headlines as needed.

Hydrology
Continued a flood warning for the mattaponi river at bowling
green based off the latest gauge readings.

Allowed flood warning along the north anna NW of doswell to
drop, but did continue from doswell southeast to include the
upper pamunkey river near hanover. Ongoing flooding is due to
the combination of the heavy rainfall and increased dam releases
at lake anna. The increased dam releases have been terminated,
but it will still take some time for the water to flow through
the basin.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz mam
short term... Ajz tmg
long term... Bms
aviation... Tmg
marine... Mpr
hydrology... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 9 mi43 min WNW 8.9 G 12 76°F 1013.2 hPa (-0.4)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 11 mi33 min WNW 7.8 G 12 76°F 1013.2 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 12 mi43 min 73°F 81°F1013.7 hPa (-0.3)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 15 mi43 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 74°F 79°F1012.6 hPa (-0.4)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi43 min WNW 4.1 G 6 76°F 81°F1013.2 hPa (-0.6)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 28 mi55 min NW 8.9 G 9.9
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi43 min W 7 G 7 73°F 75°F1013.6 hPa (+0.0)72°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 32 mi133 min W 1 63°F 1013 hPa62°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 35 mi43 min W 2.9 G 4.1 73°F 80°F1013 hPa (-0.7)
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi33 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 1013 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi43 min 74°F 74°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi49 min 73°F 1012.4 hPa
NCDV2 43 mi43 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 73°F 80°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 49 mi43 min W 2.9 G 2.9 73°F 76°F1013.4 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD13 mi58 minN 010.00 miFair72°F69°F94%1012.9 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD15 mi1.9 hrsW 510.00 miFair75°F69°F82%1012.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi66 minN 07.00 miFair68°F68°F100%1013.5 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD24 mi50 minN 0 miFair74°F73°F97%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4CalmCalmCalmW4W6NW4W6W6
G12
W8N7W55
G11
S7W3S7S4SW3CalmSW6CalmCalmW3Calm
1 day agoNE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalm34SW74S5CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoE5E4E84E6E11E9
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Tide / Current Tables for Smithville Road Bridge, Beaverdam Creek, Maryland
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Smithville Road Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:03 AM EDT     1.46 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:58 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:03 PM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.21.41.51.41.310.80.50.40.50.70.911.21.21.110.70.50.20.10.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:09 AM EDT     0.81 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:01 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 04:59 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:43 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:15 AM EDT     -0.72 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 11:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:57 PM EDT     0.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:39 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:53 PM EDT     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:23 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.80.80.60.3-0-0.3-0.6-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.20.10.20.30.20.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.