Friday, February23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:56PM Friday February 23, 2018 3:39 PM EST (20:39 UTC) Moonrise 11:30AMMoonset 12:54AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1239 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy drizzle with a slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with patchy drizzle. Patchy fog.
Sun..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
ANZ500 1239 Pm Est Fri Feb 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A front will remain stalled to the south of the area this afternoon, before gradually returning north as a warm front tonight and into this weekend. A cold front will move through the area on Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Beach, MD
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location: 38.47, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 231900
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
200 pm est Fri feb 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will gradually push north across the region
tonight through Sunday morning. A cold front will then cross the
region Sunday night. High pressure will return early next week.

Near term through Saturday
Latest surface analysis places low pressure near lake superior,
hig pressure near nova scotia, and another high pressure betwen
the carolinas and bermuda. A warm front extends between the two
high pressures, westward across north carolina, then northward
along the appalachians to the vicinity of pittsburgh. There it
turns west and meets the cold front extending southward from the
low in the great lakes. The cold front then continues southwest
toward memphis and finally approaches houston.

Tonight through Saturday, the low pressure will head eastward to
our north. Southerly flow will encourage the warm front to push
northward as well, but the odds it reaches very far into our cwa
are not high. The more pessimistic but often more realistic (in
these situations, at least) NAM shows the warm front reaching
portions of the west virginia eastern panhandle and the
shenandoah valley, but struggling to reach any portion of the
cwa east of the blue ridge. There may be an attempt at a little
clearing this evening as this all tries to occur, but otherwise,
clouds and drizzle with patchy mist fog will likely continue.

With the main forcing staying to our north, significant rainfall
is not expected across our region, but a few showers could skim
the region, particularly western maryland. Temperatures will be
fairly steady, perhaps even rising a bit, but large changes are
not expected in most of the region.

On Saturday, the front may actually sink back south a bit as the
passage of the low to our north causes the flow to shift a bit
more northerly. Thus, the morning should be more of the
same... Damp and dreary, but not a washout. Later in the morning
and in the afternoon, low pressure developing to the west over
the plains will bring increased warm advection aloft and fgen
across western zones, spreading eastward late in the day. This
will increase the risk of steadier rain. Given ample moisture
available, some locally heavy rain could occur in the western
portions of the forecast area, but confidence is low regarding
any flooding risk, so have not issued any flood watches yet.

Highs on Saturday will be a bit warmer than today as the warm
front once again attempts to lift north, with 50s and 60s
becoming more common. However, if the front ends up further
south than currently expected, it could stay cooler.

Short term Saturday night through Sunday night
Warm front makes more progress northward on Saturday night and
Sunday as low pressure wave pushes northeastward to our
northwest. This should allow temperatures to warm more
significantly after the rain Saturday night, with 70s looking
more likely on Sunday. An interval of relatively pleasant
weather may occur late morning into early afternoon, with more
sunshine, but then the cold front will approach from the
northwest. Still some uncertainty on any severe threat, but
certainly with the available moisture and warmth, some
instability will be present, so allowed slight chance of
thunder into the forecast Sunday afternoon. The front will slide
southeast across the region Sunday night, so a drying, cooling
trend will develop. However, the front will slow down overnight
as yet another wave of low pressure develops to our southwest,
so rain chances will not completely end in southern parts of the
region.

Long term Monday through Friday
With exception to a couple of lingering rain showers near
southern maryland and parts of the central chesapeake bay Monday
morning, conditions will dry out as a ridge of high pressure
builds in from the west. The high will persist through Tuesday
night before moving offshore early Wednesday.

Interaction between the high pressure and a developing low
pressure system over the central great plains will provide a
southerly return flow into our region. Expect milder and more
moist air to return Wednesday and Wednesday night. There could
be a couple of rain showers develop over the appalachians and in
parts of the central shenandoah valley later in the day
Wednesday.

A developing warm front over southwest virginia and western
north carolina will work its way north across our region
Wednesday night. Ahead of and along this warm front, additional
rain showers will develop and spread northeastward across our
region Wednesday night. Even more warmer and moist air is
expected to follow the warm front northward Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Showers, some moderate at times, should persist into Thursday
morning as the warm front moves to the mason-dixon region just
ahead of an approaching cold front that should pass through our
area Thursday night. Some drier and cooler air will work in
behind the passing cold front; however, models are trying to
push a cut-off low pressure system over the great lakes region
eastward. This cut-off low, it's upper level energy support, and
a little daytime heating could spawn additional rain showers
later Thursday night and during the day Friday. Northwesterly
winds could become quite gusty as well in the wake of the
passing surface cold front and ahead of the cut- off low
pressure system.

Overall, temperatures throughout next week will be mild with
highs approaching 60 degrees or higher in any warm sector.

Friday may be the exception and could be cooler, but for now we
will keep temperatures near normal.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Changeable conditions expected through the next 48-60 hours as a
warm front remains stalled to our south much of the time,
resulting periods of low clouds, fog, mist and drizzle. Guidance
suggests a break in the low clouds could develop late this
afternoon and this evening, but given the cold air damning wedge
over the region, this does not seem likely, so have kept all the
tafs at least MVFR through the TAF period. If conditions do
relax, it won't be for long, as we will likely see fog or low
clouds redevelop quickly overnight. The warm front will probably
stay south of all the terminals, save perhaps cho, during the
day Saturday, resulting in more of the same. Steadier rain may
overspread the region, especially the northern terminals, by
Saturday night. Conditions look more likely to improve from dc
on south and west on Sunday as a warm front lifts northward, but
bwi mtn may have trouble breaking out of the low clouds and fog
as the front may struggle to pass that area. Cold front then
finally drops southeast across the region, bringing showers and
perhaps a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon, but likely resulting
conditions finally going back toVFR with drier air filtering
south Sunday night.

Vfr conditions expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
northwest 5 knots or less Monday and Monday night. Winds
becoming southwest around 5 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Marine
With weak gradient and a front to the south, expect winds to
stay below small craft advisory strength through Saturday
evening across all waters. Late Saturday night, warm front
approaching from the south may finally lift north of the middle
bay, allowing the strong southerly flow to reach the surface and
bring gusts up to SCA levels, but for now am waiting to issue a
headline. SCA looks likely across at least the southern waters
we cover, perhaps reaching up to the northern bay as well, as
the warm front lifts north and gusty south winds develop in the
warm sector. As with the recent round on Tuesday and Wednesday,
this will be primarily near-shore gusts, with weaker winds over
the open waters due to the chilly water temperatures limiting
mixing. Cold front will push southeast across the waters Sunday
night, but at this time SCA does not appear likely with this
frontal passage.

No marine hazards expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
northwest 5 to 10 knots Monday and Monday night. Winds becoming
southwest 5 to 10 knots Tuesday and Tuesday night.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Rcm klw
marine... Rcm klw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 7 mi40 min Calm G 1.9 42°F 42°F1035.4 hPa (+1.4)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 7 mi52 min Calm G 1.9 41°F 1030.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 10 mi52 min ESE 4.1 G 4.1 42°F 43°F1029.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi52 min 45°F 48°F1030.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 23 mi52 min W 1.9 G 2.9
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 25 mi130 min Calm 41°F 1032 hPa40°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 29 mi52 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 46°F 48°F1030.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi40 min Calm G 0 41°F 42°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 31 mi40 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 43°F 43°F1031.2 hPa (-1.9)
NCDV2 32 mi52 min ESE 6 G 7 44°F 48°F1028.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 33 mi52 min E 1.9 G 1.9 44°F 49°F1030.1 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi52 min 44°F 1029.2 hPa
CPVM2 37 mi52 min 42°F 42°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 40 mi52 min S 5.1 G 6 45°F 47°F1029.8 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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N15
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD12 mi63 minN 03.00 miOvercast43°F42°F100%1030.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD13 mi48 minE 32.00 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist44°F44°F100%1029.6 hPa
St. Inigoes, Webster Field, Naval Electronic Systems Engineering Activity, MD23 mi47 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1029.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD24 mi65 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist46°F44°F93%1030.5 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE3NE10
G15
NE5E7NE5NE3NE4NE4NE3E3NE3NE4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW7
G15
S7S5SW8SW6SW6SW5SW7SW6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmNE3E5E5E5E4CalmN3
2 days agoS7S6S5S6S5S4SW5SW6SW8SW6SW7SW9SW7SW8SW9SW9SW8SW10SW10
G17
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G22
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G19
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G15

Tide / Current Tables for Long Beach, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Long Beach
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:44 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:34 AM EST     1.05 feet High Tide
Fri -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:33 PM EST     0.07 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:47 PM EST     0.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0-0.1-0.2-0.10.10.40.60.9110.90.70.50.30.20.10.10.20.30.50.60.70.60.4

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Fri -- 12:54 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 02:14 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:09 AM EST     First Quarter
Fri -- 05:44 AM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:46 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:37 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:30 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:47 PM EST     -0.45 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 04:28 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:53 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:26 PM EST     0.16 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:57 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.4-0.2-0.10.20.30.50.50.40.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.4-0.2-0.10.10.20.20.1-0-0.2-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.