Monday, May22, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Vienna, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:14PM Monday May 22, 2017 1:37 PM EDT (17:37 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 3:35PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ543 Tangier Sound And The Inland Waters Surrounding Bloodsworth Island- 1032 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
.small craft advisory in effect Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers late this morning, then showers with a slight chance of tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely .
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft... Subsiding to 1 ft after midnight. A chance of showers in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Am Edt Mon May 22 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A cold front will cross the area by this evening. High pressure may briefly build in tonight into early Tuesday before a low pressure system moves up near the delmarva coast Tuesday night. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into Tuesday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Vienna, MD
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location: 38.48, -75.82     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 221420
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1020 am edt Mon may 22 2017

A frontal boundary over the carolinas will lift north as a warm
front this morning as an area of low pressure tracks across the
mid atlantic. This front will drop back into the carolinas
tonight, before lifting back north into the region once again Tuesday
and Tuesday night as a potent low pressure system tracks along
the boundary. Unsettled conditions continue Wednesday and Thursday
as an upper level trough approaches from the west.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Current surface observations, radar imagery, and satellite
imagery depict a compact low tracking newd from n-central nc
into s-central va. Areas of showers are primarily ahead of the
low extending from s-central va to the NRN delmarva. Periods of
moderate to briefly heavy rain are possible from the piedmont
through the md ERN shore late this morning through midday due
to the combination of decent forcing and pw values of +1-2 st
dev. QPF of 0.5-0.75" is possible through this aftn. The
primary forcing pushes offshore by late aftn, with some
lingering showers/tstms possible with pops diminishing to
20-40%. Instability is limited (500-1000 j/kg of 0-1km mlcape)
and 0-6km bulk shear is generally less than 25kt, so any threat
of severe tstms is very minimal. Temperatures this morning are
mainly in the low/mid 60s where pcpn is occurring, with low/mid
70s across SE va/ne nc. Temperatures across the NW will rise
once pcpn ends with highs today in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday/
The front drops back into the carolinas this evening/tonight with
some drying aloft from the N as the shortwave aloft and surface
low push offshore. Pops drop below 15% across the N with some
partial clearing possible (briefly), while mainly cloudy
conditions continue s, with a 20-40% chc of showers. Lows range
from the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The flow aloft remains SW Tuesday, with another wave lifting
newd across the carolinas during the morning and the mid-
atlantic during the aftn and evening, with deep layer moisture
returning. Categorical pops overspread the entire area Tuesday
after 12z for much of the area (and after 15-18z across the ne).

22/00z nam/gfs/gefs/ecmwf continue to show some differences in
timing and location and strength of this wave of low pressure,
but the general theme is for a potent system with deep anomalous
moisture transport per strong h925-h700 southerly flow and pw
values climbing to ~1.75" collocated with the favorable rrq of a
potent 120kt jet over the northeast conus. Will have "heavy
rain" wording in the gridded forecast and will continue the
mention of potential for heavy rain/possible flooding in the
hwo. The current storm total QPF averages 2.00"-3.00" (bulk of
this coming on tue), and overall the 22/00z models are into
decent agreement with these amounts, though higher amounts are
possible and areas of northeast nc near the coast could receive
less overall with the main axis of best forcing a little to the
nw of this region. The high temperature forecast for Tue shows
generally low/mid 70s SE to the upper 60s/around 70 f central
and mid 60s far nw.

This shortwave/surface low push offshore Tuesday night, with
latest models showing more significant drying aloft Tue night
into midday Wed so have lowered pops during this period (though
low levels remain saturated so it should stay mainly cloudy).

Yet another wave approaching from the SW Wednesday aftn and will
ramps pops back up to 60-70% W and 40% E after 18z. Mostly
cloudy to overcast with lows Tuesday night in the upper 50s to
mid 60s, followed by highs Wednesday ranging through the 70s.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
The deep upper trough across the eastern u.S. Will continue to
affect the middle atlantic into Thursday as there are some
indications that the trough may slow down and even become negatively
tilted as it moves off the east coast Thursday into Friday. This
should keep precipitable water values well above normal with an
upper jet axis nearby. As such, have raised pops to likely across
much of the area Wed night and maintained high chance pops on
Thursday before the upper trough axis moves east Thu night.

With weak high pressure building across the southeast and middle
atlantic for Friday and Friday night, will maintain a dry and
seasonable forecast with temperatures in the upper 70s/lower
80s. The upper trough finally moves northeast by Saturday,
leaving more zonal flow across the region with building heights.

The GFS and the canadian suggest a weak upper disturbance
moving through the area in w-nw flow later Saturday into
Saturday night, but the ECMWF keeps this further north as it
builds heights across the area faster than the gfs/canadian.

With that being said, will slight chance of showers/storms
Saturday afternoon for much of the area with the exception of se
va and NE nc. Better chances for showers and storms Sunday with
better agreement from the models of another upper disturbance
moving overhead.

In general, temperatures will stay seasonable for this time of year
with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows in the upper 50s
to mid 60s. No major warmth is expected through at least next

Aviation /14z Monday through Friday/
Numerous showers W and scattered showers east early this
morning, with conditions ifr/lifr at ric and genly MVFR at
phf/orf/ecg/sby through this morning. Showers are expected to
slowly track east through the region, becoming more widespread
to the coast this aftn. MVFR conditions will become predominant
with brief periods of ifr in heavier showers possible through
later aftn. Tstms most likely for southeast va and northeast nc
from about 18z-22z.

Outlook... Precipitation will move out this evening as deeper
moisture moves offshore, but potential for some ifr conditions
mainly at sby in patchy fog and low clouds. Rain redevelops from
sw to NE Tuesday morning and overspreads all sites by 15-18z
with ifr/MVFR conditions likely. Degraded aviation conditions
will be likely into Tue evening. Rain may become spotty for
awhile Tue night through midday wed, though the potential for
lingering low clouds will still be present. Another slug of
deeper moisture and showers/tstms possible Wed night along with
a breezy S to SE flow. Dry weather not expected to return until
late thu/fri.

Sfc high pressure off new england will continue to retreat to the ne
today. Meanwhile, a cold front approaches from the west during the
day and washes out over the local waters Tuesday morning. Potent low
pressure rides NE along this boundary during Tuesday, crossing
near/over the waters Tuesday aftn/eve. The low then pushes NE and
away from the area Tuesday night. Southeast winds 10-15 kt early
this morning will become sse at similar speeds later this morning
into the afternoon. A complicated wind pattern develops tonight and
tues with the frontal boundary washing out over the marine area.

Winds will eventually turn to the nne around 10 kt all waters
tonight, except remaining southerly off the northern obx thru
daybreak tues. Ene winds increase on tues to 15-20 kt, but may
become s-sw tues aftn across the southern waters depending on the
eventual track of the sfc low. Winds the turn to the SW and diminish
to 10-15 kt all waters as the sfc low head ne. The wind forecast
remains tricky on tues as there are still some timing differences in
the models. Scas appear to be likely for a portion of the marine
area but confidence is still low at this time to issue. Quieter
marine weather expected for the end of the week as the flow becomes
offshore behind the low.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Lkb
near term... Ajz/lkb
short term... Ajz/lkb
long term... Mrd
aviation... Lkb/lsa
marine... Jdm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 15 mi62 min 63°F 69°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi62 min Calm G 1 65°F 68°F1017.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi62 min Calm G 1 62°F 1017.5 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 32 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 3.9 63°F 1017.5 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 35 mi62 min Calm G 0 63°F 67°F
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 40 mi62 min SW 6 G 7 63°F 62°F1017.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 41 mi48 min NNE 1.9 G 3.9 64°F 1015.9 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 43 mi62 min S 6 G 8 67°F 61°F1016.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 44 mi38 min WSW 1.9 G 1.9 61°F 66°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 45 mi62 min Calm G 1
44063 - Annapolis 47 mi48 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 62°F 1017 hPa
CPVM2 47 mi62 min 62°F 62°F
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 48 mi62 min NE 2.9 G 4.1 65°F 69°F1016.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 49 mi62 min 63°F 1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi48 minN 06.00 miFog/Mist63°F62°F100%1016.9 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi44 minS 74.00 miFog/Mist71°F69°F94%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE9SE7E10E9E9E9E7E6E7E8E4E3CalmCalmN5NE5NE3N3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoE16E10NE12
2 days ago6NW8

Tide / Current Tables for Vienna, Nanticoke River, Chesapeake Bay, Maryland
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Mon -- 01:54 AM EDT     2.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:22 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Salisbury, Maryland (2 miles below) Current
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Mon -- 01:05 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:09 AM EDT     -0.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:06 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 12:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:17 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:35 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:33 PM EDT     0.78 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.