Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 3:42 AM   Moonset 4:32 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 1035 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely. A slight chance of tstms this afternoon. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon - SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Mon night - SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt - .becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 1035 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week. Small craft advisories may need to be extended into tonight for portions of the waters. Additional small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters by the middle of the week.

FXUS61 KLWX 051414 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 1014 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
An active pattern will continue through mid-week as multiple disturbances pass through the area. A cold front will move through toward the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A cold-air wedge remains in place to the east of the Appalachians. Warm/moist advection riding over this wedge is allowing for precipitation over most of our CWA During the past hour, precipitation over Northeast MD and the northern Chesapeake Bay has been diminishing, while the precipitation over central MD and eastern WV has been holding its own as it moves toward central PA. There has been additional development of heavier showers over north-central and central West Virginia during this same time stamp as this is the area of better instability. As time goes on into the afternoon, we expect north to northeast winds to become southeasterly at light to modest speeds. Also, our temperatures should climb into the middle to upper 60s by late afternoon depending on how much clearing. To the west of the Blue Ridge, temperatures should climb into the lower to middle 70s. Should we get some clearing and additional low level warmth and moisture this afternoon, then we could see additional showers and perhaps a couple of thunderstorms east of the Blue Ridge. The greatest chance for a thunderstorm during the mid- late afternoon hours looks to be between the Allegheny Front and I- 81.

Conditions should dry out overnight, but skies should remain mostly cloudy. If any breaks in the cloud cover are able to develop, fog may develop overnight, given weak low-level flow and ample moisture in place at low-levels following ongoing rainfall. Temperatures will remain mild overnight, with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Previous discussion...
A largely convectively generated disturbance (by ongoing storms across the Southern Plains) will drift through the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys toward the area on Monday. The day should start out dry, but mostly cloudy for most. As the disturbance drifts toward the area, low-level moisture will be drawn northward into the area in southerly flow as greater mid-upper level moisture simultaneously advects into the area aloft.
Daytime heating will allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s, which when coupled with the increasing moisture will lead to the development of some surface based instability. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible Monday afternoon, with the greatest coverage expected to be across the Central Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia, where low- level convergence is expected to be maximized. Model soundings show around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE, along with relatively moist profiles and weak flow through the lower half of the troposphere. Such an environment could lead to slow moving, heavy rainfall producing storms, especially from the Shenandoah Valley into Central Virginia. 00z CAMs show isolated areas of 2-5 inches of rainfall across those locations Monday afternoon, which potentially raises concerns for flash flooding. With the disturbance forcing the precipitation being largely convectively generated, that makes predictability a bit lower than normal at this time range, so things could potentially change. However, we'll continue to keep an eye on the potential for heavy rainfall Monday afternoon.

Additional showers and thunderstorms appear possible again on Tuesday as a disturbance tracks into the Great Lakes. Much like Monday, high temperatures are expected to reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Soundings again show relatively saturated profiles along with some surface based instability, so storms may once again be heavy rainfall producers.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Rain and thunderstorm chances will continue by Wednesday, with an approaching cold front from the west. The precip chances will increase from west to east later in the day on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 80s for the lower elevations and 70s for the mountains. Winds out of the west will be gusting to 15 to 20 knots throughout the afternoon. Precipitation chances increase overnight Wednesday and through the day on Thursday as the front continues to approach the area. Given the increasing instability ahead of the front, a few isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible with the frontal passage on Thursday. Additionally, some isolated instances of flooding will be possible with the continuous prolonged batches of precipitation over just a few days. Still a lot of uncertainty pertaining to timing, intensity and antecedent conditions. Highs on Thursday will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s for most areas.

Behind the front on Friday, precipitation will likely linger around with highs in the 70s for the lower elevations and 60s in the mountains. Northwest winds will remain elevated with gusts getting into the 15 to 25 knots range, with the higher amounts along the higher elevations. Lingering light showers may persist into the weekend with highs in the mid to upper 60s for most areas with 50s in the mountains.

AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
IFR to LIFR conditions with rain showers at the terminals this morning with more rain showers filling in during this afternoon.
Thunderstorms could develop across western MD and the eastern WV Panhandle this afternoon, potentially impacting MRB. IFR ceiling are expected to persist through much if not all of the day, although some locations could go MVFR for a few hours this afternoon. Winds this afternoon will steer away from a north to northeast direction to a southeast direction. IFR ceilings and fog look to build back in tonight.

Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected on Monday. An afternoon or evening shower or thunderstorm may be possible at any of the terminals, with CHO standing the greatest chance to see impacts. Winds will be light and somewhat variable Monday.
Prevailing VFR conditions continue into Tuesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible once again. Winds will turn southerly on Tuesday, but remain relatively light.

Mainly VFR conditions for the terminals on Wednesday with increasing chances of sub-VFR ceilings by Wednesday night into Thursday as precipitation begins to track across the area. Winds out of the west will continue to gust out of the west.

MARINE
Winds will remain northeasterly in the northern Bay waters, while staying southeasterly in the central and southern Bay water through the rest of this morning. Expect winds in all waters to turn southeasterly by mid to late afternoon. SCAs remain in effect for the wider waters this afternoon. SCAs may potentially need to be extended a bit into the overnight hours in channeled southerly flow. Thereafter, sub-SCA magnitude is expected on both Monday and Tuesday. Thunderstorms will be possible both Monday and Tuesday. Any storms that move over the waters could lead to the issuance of SMWs.

SCA conditions are possible Wednesday and Thursday with increasing pressure gradient over the waters. Additionally, an SMW may be needed for any stronger thunderstorms that cross the waters Thursday afternoon and evening.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Onshore flow will continue to usher in minor to moderate tidal flooding at the more sensitive locations along the Chesapeake Bay through Monday morning. Winds will begin to turn more out of the southwest on Monday with slow improvements in coastal flooding through midweek. Additional periods of coastal flooding are possible into Wednesday.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ017.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ531- 532-538>540-542.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ533- 534-537-543.

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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:36 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:54 PM EDT     3.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

Massaponax
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:07 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:16 AM EDT     3.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:52 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:26 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:45 PM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia, Tide feet

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