Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Shenandoah, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 5:02PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:51 PM EST (23:51 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 636 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Tonight..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
ANZ500 636 Pm Est Sat Nov 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will remain overhead through tonight before shifting offshore on Sunday. SEveral waves of low pressure and their associated fronts will move near the waters through the middle of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Shenandoah, VA
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location: 38.48, -78.64     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 171945
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
245 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure over the ohio valley will remain overhead through
tonight before moving offshore on Sunday. Several waves of low
pressure will then pass near the region, the first on Sunday
night, and the second on Monday night. A stronger cold front
will then approach the region from the northwest Wednesday.

Near term through tonight
High pressure will continue building overhead through tonight.

Much of the stratocumulus clouds from earlier have dissipated,
and mostly sunny skies can be expected for the remainder of the
daylight hours. Highs will range from the mid 40s to low 50s.

As low pressure moves northeastward through the mississippi
valley tonight, warm air advection will begin aloft. This will
lead to the increase of some mid high clouds during the evening
hours. In addition, some lower strato-cumulus clouds are
expected to develop after midnight, and especially towards
morning, mainly north west of the i-95 corridor. Some hi-res
model guidance is indicating the possibility of some light
drizzle freezing drizzle, but the low level moisture is likely
overdone, so leaving a dry forecast. Some patchy fog is also
possible. Lows will range from 30-37f.

Short term Sunday through Monday night
Southerly flow will develop on Sunday as the weak area of low
pressure moves into the ohio valley. Mostly cloudy skies are
expected, but conditions should remain dry for just about
everywhere. Highs from the mid 40s to low 50s.

The wave of low pressure will pass by near or just to the north
Sunday night. Some light showers are possible overnight, mainly
near the pa border and across eastern WV and western md.

Forecast temperature profiles suggest any precipitation should
be in the form of rain. Lows in the mid 30s to near 40f.

The first area of low pressure will pass eastward on Monday,
while a second low is progged to develop near or west of the
area by Monday afternoon along a frontal boundary. Thus, chances
for rain showers will be on the upward trend Monday, although
at this point, highest probabilities appear west of i-95 and the
metros during the day. The low will move near the region Monday
night and offshore Tuesday morning with the highest chances of
precipitation during this time. Most locations likely to see
rain showers, but a change to snow showers over the higher
terrain appears likely as cold air advection occurs behind the
system Monday night into early Tuesday. A light accumulation of
snow is possible. Highs Monday in the upper 40s to mid 50s with
lows Monday night in the 30s to around 40f.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
On Tuesday, expecting high pressure to return to the region behind a
passing cold front, bringing dry weather for most of the
region. However, some upslope snow showers are possible along
the allegany front throughout the day, but not expecting much,
if anything, east of there. Cooler air following the frontal
passage will bring continued below average temperatures to the
region, with highs only expected to reach the mid to upper 40s.

On Wednesday, high pressure builds into the region, with dry
conditions expected across the entire area. Temperatures will again
be below average, with temps in the mid 40s. Another cold front will
drop through the region on Wednesday night or early Thursday
morning. This front does not have much moisture or upper forcing to
support precipitation. However, it will bring in much colder air.

High temperatures may struggle to reach 40 on Thursday. With high
pressure building in though, expect it to be a dry day at least.

High pressure continues to build into the region on Friday, bringing
continued dry conditions. Temperatures may rebound slightly, but
remain below average.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
Vfr expected for the remainder of today and this evening. Low
level stratus clouds are expected to form late tonight and
especially Sunday morning, and MVFR is likely for mrb and cho,
and possible at iad. Lesser chances for MVFR exist eastward to
bwi mtn. Its also not out of the realm of possibilities that
some patchy fog drizzle occur at mrb cho.

Potential for MVFR stratus continues Sunday night into Monday,
with the highest chances continuing at mrb.

Vfr is expected through the long term period. Main issues will
just be periods of gusty winds with passing cold fronts, which
look mostly dry at this point.

Marine
As high pressure builds into the region through Sunday, winds
will trend lighter and sub SCA conditions are expected through
the weekend. Gradient will also remain weak over the waters
Monday and Monday night as weak low pressure approaches from the
west with sub-sca conditions forecast.

Sca conditions will be possible Tuesday as a cold front departs the
region. Winds probably diminish Wednesday.

Climate
Here are the current rankings for wettest year on record
(through november 15th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.09 inches (1878)
4. 58.58 inches (2018)
5. 58.17 inches (1886)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 63.18 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
3. 62.35 inches (1889)
4. 58.98 inches (1979)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 59.17 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
4. 58.09 inches (1996)
5. 55.43 inches (1979)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm
short term... Mm
long term... Cjl
aviation... Mm cjl
marine... Mm cjl
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 90 mi33 min Calm G 1.9 46°F 46°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Staunton / Shenandoah, VA18 mi76 minN 010.00 miFair41°F34°F78%1024.4 hPa

Wind History from W45 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5S3CalmS6S4S6N8NW16
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CalmN6N3NE3N3CalmN5N8
1 day agoN3Calm----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmE4CalmCalmCalmS4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6CalmCalm
2 days agoNW8N6N7
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S4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4NW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Fredericksburg, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Fredericksburg
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:08 AM EST     2.68 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:44 PM EST     2.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:17 PM EST     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.22.52.72.62.21.61.10.60.40.30.51.11.82.32.62.72.41.91.40.80.50.40.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Massaponax, Rappahannock River, Virginia
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Massaponax
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:53 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 01:59 AM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:10 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:14 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:35 PM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:33 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.92.22.32.21.91.410.60.40.20.40.91.522.32.32.11.71.20.80.50.30.30.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.