Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Madison, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 3:24 AM EST (08:24 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1236 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Overnight..NW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt... Becoming se late. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 1236 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will gradually build in from the southwest and persist through Thursday. A large area of low pressure will approach the waters late Friday into Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions will be possible Friday afternoon and likely Friday night into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Madison, MD
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location: 38.49, -76.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 120531
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1231 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over the area tonight through Thursday.

Low pressure approaches from the southwest Friday and crosses
the area Saturday.

Near term through today
As of 840 pm est Tuesday...

mainly skc overnight. Light SW wind may keep temps from falling
as far as they can, but still expect readings from 20 NW to near
30 se. Some teens psbl if winds decouple across the w. Sps alrdy
issued for ptchy "black ice".

Short term tonight through Friday night
As of 355 pm est Tuesday...

Wednesday Thursday...

high pressure moves offshore on Wednesday. A weak trough clips
the NRN mid-atlantic Thursday, with high pressure building
across new england in the wake of this system. Temperatures will
be slow to moderate through midweek given snow cover. Remaining
dry through the period as high pressure prevails under a partly
to mostly sunny clear sky.

Low temperatures tonight range from the low 20s in the piedmont, to
the upper 20s around 30f toward the coast. Highs Wednesday range
from the low mid 40s inland to the mid upper 40s at the coast. Highs
Thursday range from the low 40s NW to the low 50s se, after morning
lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

Friday Friday night...

after a quiet mid-week, the pattern will become more active on
Friday into the first half of the weekend. Good model agreement
continues that a strong southern stream shortwave will carve
out a broad upper trough over the southern plains on Thursday,
with that feature eventually closing off and pushing across the
southeast on Friday into Saturday. The associated surface low
will then develop over the texarkana region late Thursday,
lifting across the mid-south Thursday night, before approaching
our area Friday into Saturday, as the surface high slips farther
offshore Thursday night and Friday.

Overall, model timing is a bit faster with the 12z Tue suite of
models. ECMWF nam and fv3 all depict overrunning moisture
pushing across the western half of the region Friday morning,
reaching the remainder of the CWA by late Friday afternoon. Rain
then continues across the area Friday evening with the steadiest
rainfall highest likelihood of pops coming Friday night into
Saturday morning. Rain may be moderate to heavy at times. Rain
chances continue into the Saturday afternoon, especially across
the ne. At this time, left any thunder message just south of our
area where models currently indicate better instability. Ahead
of this system, a deep southerly flow will transport abundant
moisture into the region allowing for pwat values to climb in
excess of 1.5" Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Model
output shows anywhere from 1 to 2 inches of QPF over the local
area with this system, with ECMWF once again a bit wetter than
the remaining guidance. High QPF values in addition to the
melted snowfall from the previous winter storm will set the
stage for potential flooding issues. Cursory look at mmefs shows
at least 50-60% probability for minor to moderate river flood
event across each of our river forecast points. A flood watch
will certainly be worth consideration with later forecast
packages if current setup remains in place in modeled data, and
will make a mention in hwo, given pops already in likely to low
end categorical range for Friday afternoon and night.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 355 pm est Tuesday...

Saturday's low pressure system departs offshore by Sunday morning
with residual showers possible across far southern va and northeast
nc as the upper level low swings across the region. Still some
disagreement between the models on this feature, decided to go
closer to the ecm fv3. Ecm is still consistent with showing low
pressure redevelop off the nc coast Sunday night into Monday.

This would allow for rain showers to linger across the east into
Monday morning. The operational GFS is more progressive with
the upper level low, thus has dry weather by Sunday afternoon.

Introduced chance pops across the south and southeast Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning to take into account both model
solutions. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
builds back across the region. Temperatures moderate by this
weekend with southerly flow ahead of the next low pressure
system, currently have highs in the lower 50s NW to the low mid
60s across the SE for Saturday. Sunday will feature highs in the
low to mid 50s across the region. Temperatures trend cooler
early next week as cool high pressure builds across the area.

Aviation 06z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 1230 am est Wednesday...

high pressure is centered over the deep south early this
morning, and it will gradually slide across the southeast coast
today and move offshore tonight. Clear early this morning, with
some high clouds arriving later this aftn into tonight. A light
wsw wind early will become nw, and then become sse (locally ene
at orf) as high pressure slides off the coast later this aftn.

High pressure continues to prevail Thursday into Thursday night.

Low pressure approaches from the SW Friday and moves across the
area Friday night into Saturday bringing rain and degraded
flight conditions. An upper level trough lingers over the area
into Sunday.

Marine
As of 345 pm est Tuesday...

conditions across the marine area continue to improve today as the
secondary area of low pressure off the carolina coast pulls away
from the region. Winds have been decreasing from north to south
today with 10-15 knots prevalent across the northern bay and ocean
zones and 15-25 knots from CAPE henry and points to the south. A
weak shortwave trough aloft and surface reflection will clip
northern zones late tonight and Wednesday morning bringing a short
lived stint of renewed cold advection and increased winds. Guidance
differs in the magnitude of cold advection wind with the wrf
guidance showing the potential for a brief period of SCA conditions
for our northern bay and ocean zones (north of CAPE charles). The
3km NAM is less robust with winds staying below SCA thresholds.

Given the lack of agreement and marginal wind magnitude will hold
off on introducing new headlines for the bay with this package.

Waves are slowly decreasing as well with generally 1-2 feet in the
bay, slightly higher at 2-3 near the mouth of the bay. Offshore is a
different story, seas 5-6 feet across the northern zones and 6-8
feet south of CAPE charles. Guidance has trended slower regarding
the reduction in wave amplitude offshore with 5 foot seas indicated
across all ocean zones through Wednesday morning. Therefore, will
extend scas for all ocean zones through 15z tomorrow.

Tranquil marine conditions are in store for the mid week period as
high pressure builds into the area from the west. Longer term model
guidance shows a closed low aloft and surface low pressure
approaching for the end of the week. However, the timing, placement,
and magnitude of depicted low pressure vary substantially among the
gfs ECMWF gem. Will show increasing winds seas beginning Friday with
the potential for SCA conditions across the bay and offshore zones
through Sunday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz650-
652-654-656-658.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz mpr
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi42 min 38°F 40°F1018.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 11 mi36 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 1019.6 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 17 mi36 min NNW 6 G 8 42°F 42°F1018.9 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi36 min N 6 G 8.9 34°F 38°F1019.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi24 min SW 5.1 G 6 38°F 41°F1019.6 hPa (+0.5)24°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 30 mi42 min N 11 G 12
44042 - Potomac, MD 32 mi34 min N 12 G 16 41°F 1018 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 33 mi114 min Calm 29°F 1018 hPa28°F
CPVM2 36 mi42 min 38°F 25°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi36 min 35°F 1018.2 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 37 mi42 min W 5.1 G 7 33°F 38°F1019 hPa
NCDV2 45 mi42 min NNW 1.9 G 2.9 26°F 41°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi44 minN 010.00 miOvercast32°F26°F80%1019 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD17 mi92 minN 1010.00 miFair41°F21°F45%1018.5 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD21 mi41 minNNW 510.00 miFair39°F21°F48%1019.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD23 mi27 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F26°F74%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5CalmN4N6N4N4CalmCalmNW6NW8
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N9N8N4CalmN5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5
2 days agoCalmCalmN5N5N6NE65
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
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Wed -- 01:48 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:55 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.20.30.50.80.90.90.80.50.30.1-0-00.10.40.81.21.51.51.51.310.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Wed -- 12:27 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:22 AM EST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.40.40.30.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.200.30.50.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.