Friday, March24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:22PM Friday March 24, 2017 12:19 AM EDT (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:58AMMoonset 2:47PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1031 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely... Mainly in the morning.
Tue..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 1031 Pm Edt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will slide offshore tonight, allowing a warm front to lift through the area on Friday. A low pressure system will then approach the area Sunday, and move through Sunday night into Monday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Friday night and again Sunday and Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 240222
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1022 pm edt Thu mar 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure slides offshore overnight and shifts farther
eastward on Friday. A gradual warming trend then begins Friday
through the upcoming weekend. A more active weather pattern is
anticipated Sunday night into the first half of next week.

Near term /until 6 am Friday morning/
Sfc high pressure slides offshore overnight with continued
clear skies. One last night of chilly readings with lows below
freezing inland areas/md lower eastern shore (25-30f) and in
the 30s far SE va/ne nc coastal areas.

Short term /6 am Friday morning through Sunday/
Dry with a gradual warming trend Fri through Sat as canadian
high pressure continues to push ewd/offshore. A warm front lifts
nw of the area overnight... Allowing warm air advection to
commence on Fri with winds becoming more s-sw. Temperatures are
expected to rebound to readings at to slightly above normal due
to breezy SW winds gusting to around 20-25 mph inland va/ne nc
and up to 25-30 mph md/va eastern shore. Expect highs in the
mid 60s most inland areas (mid 50s to lower 60s beaches and
md/va eastern shore). Overall conditions will be dry as
mid-upper level ridging and decent subsidence aloft dominates
(i.E. Best shower chances are along/north of the mason-dixon
line INVOF the warm front). Otherwise, mid-high clouds should
stream across the region (especially north) within relatively
flat, upper level flow through Fri night. Lows around 50f.

Meanwhile, low pressure exits the intermountain west Fri and
tracks into the WRN midwest Fri night. As the low struggles to
cross the mid-mississippi valley sat/sat night, a secondary warm
front extending from the low is expected to lift north through
the area Sat aftn. This will allow for additional warming in
continued SW sfc winds and a noticeable influx of moisture as
dewpoints increase to around 50f. Although clouds should clear
out briefly across the SE half of the area during the day (as is
typical with a warm frontal passage), aftn cumulus development
and increasing cirrus from the west will keep partly sunny
wording in the forecast... Mostly cloudy far NRN counties invof
the warm front. Maintained highs for Sat in the in the mid 70s
inland (upper 60s to lower 70s beaches). Continued warm sat
night with lows running about 10-15 degrees above normal. Lows
in the lower 50s most areas (upper 40s possible atlantic beaches
of md/va eastern shore).

Weakening sfc low in the great lakes finally gets kicked ene by
another low pressure system exiting the intermountain west on
sun. Negative tilting of the mid-upper lows will slow the
advancing (and weakening) sfc cold front associated with the
great lakes low. This will also slow the arrival of incoming
precip into the eastern piedmont until late Sun aftn (or even
possibly not arriving until early evening). High temps expected
to reach the lower 70s most inland areas (60s beaches). A
combination of instability parameters are not lining up for
favorable/widespread thunderstorm development Sun aftn/early
evening. Best factors to overcome the meager instability will be
the presence of weak seabreeze boundaries with se-s sfc winds,
and a veering wind profile with height (albeit weak 0-6km shear
of roughly 30kt). Taking this into consideration and knowing
that the region will be well within a warm sector, cannot
completely rule out diurnally-driven thunderstorms in the aftn.

Have therefore added a slight chance for thunder into the
forecast.

Long term /Sunday night through Thursday/
Medium range period features a mild period, courtesy of surface
high pressure oriented just off the mid-atlantic/southeast
coast. Main weather features of note a couple of mid/upper level
lows, which will bring scattered light precipitation late in the
weekend and again by Tuesday. The first of these disturbances
traverses across the central/southern plains on Saturday,
dampening as it crosses e- NE into the ohio valley and eastern
great lakes on Sunday and into the northeast on Monday. This
feature will allow for some isolated to scattered showers Sunday
night into early on Monday. QPF will be limited with this
feature. Despite increasing pw values, minimal instability and
steadily weakening dynamics/forcing remain maximized well off
to our n-nw. Therefore, high end chc to likely pop is in place
for Sunday night over our western/nw tier of the area for
sct/numerous showers. Region remains mild in the warm sector
with southerly flow bringing highs in the upper 50s to 60s
northern neck and md lower eastern shore... With upper 60s to
low 70s inland for early next week.

For the middle of next week... Attention turns to a second
southern stream disturbance, which is expected to track
east/northeastward from the ca coast... Across the plains and
mid-south late sat-early Monday. There remains some significant
disagreement with the gfs/ecmwf, with the ECMWF and its member
ensembles remaining more progressive and flatter. Will lean in
the ECMWF direction with the GFS parallel and GEFS seemingly
trending in this quicker direction as well. Still, this system
will be a bit stronger than the weekend system but it too will
weaken as it pushes across the eastern third of the CONUS Monday
through early Tuesday. So while would translate to another
period of showers late Monday night into Tuesday afternoon,
system will again be progressive. Given the timing, will mention
slight chance of thunder Tuesday afternoon west of the bay.

Remaining mild, with highs in the 60s to near 70 eastern
shore... Mid 70s to near 80 south central va/interior NE nc.

Shortwave ridging rebuilds behind this system for Wednesday.

Highs remain mild through the period, with 50s and 60s over the
northern neck of va into md, with highs well into the 60s to mid
70s inland. Early morning lows mainly in the 40s to low 50s
southern sections.

Aviation /02z Friday through Tuesday/
High pressure on the virginia coast will move to the east overnight.

Low pressure over the central plains will move northeast toward the
great lakes and weaken. A stationary front will be over northern
portions of the mid atlantic states Sunday.

Light and variable winds will become south and southwest Friday and
will gust to around 20 to 25 knots in the afternoon. High clouds
will increase overhead on Friday.

Outlook... Dry weather continues into Sunday morning. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon and night.

Unsettled conditions are forecast to continue Monday and
Tuesday.

Marine
Latest obs reflect northerly flow across the waters this
afternoon, with surface high pressure in place over the region.

Sca headlines have been dropped for all waters except for anz658
south of the va/nc border to currituck beach light through
23z/7pm edt. Seas have fallen off to 2-3 ft north, 3-4 ft
central waters, and 4-5 ft across the far southern coastal
waters.

Sfc high pres slides off the coast tonight through Friday...

with winds becoming SW Fri and lingering through sat. Pressure
gradient tightens tomorrow afternoon, with developing low
pressure over the plains. Southerly flow increasing to ~15 knots
by Friday afternoon. While nearshore winds will be elevated and
gusty tomorrow and Sat afternoons, given still cool water
temps... Will undercut guidance slightly and keep waters below
any SCA thresholds for now. The next front crosses the waters
early next week... W/ relatively benign marine conditions
expected over the weekend in ssw winds mainly AOB 15 kt. Seas
averaging 2-3 ft... Waves 1-2 ft.

Akq watches/warnings/advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Bmd
near term... Bmd/jdm
short term... Bmd
long term... Mam
aviation... Lsa
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi50 min ESE 5.1 G 6 34°F 44°F1034.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 12 39°F 1035.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi30 min S 14 G 16 41°F 1035.3 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi50 min S 8 G 8.9 38°F 45°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi50 min SSE 9.9 G 11 41°F 45°F1036 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi80 min S 16 G 17 41°F 43°F24°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi50 min S 11 G 13
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi30 min S 14 G 18 41°F 1034.9 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi110 min SSE 4.1 37°F 1035 hPa22°F
CPVM2 36 mi50 min 41°F 26°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi50 min 41°F 1034.4 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi50 min S 7 G 8 37°F 47°F1035.5 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi50 min SSE 5.1 G 7 38°F 47°F1034.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi50 min S 2.9 G 5.1 37°F 44°F1035.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi40 minSE 510.00 miOvercast28°F21°F74%1035.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi28 minS 710.00 miFair36°F19°F50%1035.1 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi20 minSSE 410.00 miFair33°F18°F55%1036.2 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair32°F17°F55%1035.6 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE7N8N5NE4
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NE6N66N5N4
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N11NW4CalmSE5SE3SE4CalmCalmSE5
1 day agoCalmW3NW7NW10
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2 days agoCalmCalmS3SE3CalmE3CalmE5CalmN54N5N8NW6N7N84CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:57 AM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:35 PM EDT     1.56 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:47 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:42 PM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.21.31.210.80.50.30.20.10.30.611.31.51.51.41.210.70.50.40.30.50.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:48 AM EDT     0.38 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:58 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     -0.42 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:44 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:53 PM EDT     0.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:48 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:25 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:50 PM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 10:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.4-0.20.10.40.50.60.50.30.1-0.1-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.30

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.