Thursday, May25, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:42AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday May 25, 2017 2:07 PM EDT (18:07 UTC) Moonrise 4:53AMMoonset 7:11PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 132 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers.
Mon..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Thu May 25 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure and its associated cold front will move through the area this evening. High pressure will build overhead Friday through Friday night before moving off the mid-atlantic coast Saturday. A warm front will stall out near the waters later Saturday and Sunday before a stronger cold front moves through Monday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 251440
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1040 am edt Thu may 25 2017

Unsettled conditions will continue this afternoon as an upper
level trough crosses the local area from the west. Conditions
improve on Friday. Warmer temperatures and chance for showers
and thunderstorms will return over the weekend. A cold front
will approach from the west on memorial day.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Complex lo pres was found over the ERN conus... One center invof
oh... The other just off the delmarva. A dry slot has surged ne
into the fa this morning... Resulting in at least partial
clearing and diminished pops. Upper level low will be tracking
by just N of the local area... W a trough crossing the region
this afternoon evening... Which will steepen lapse rates and lead
to development of isold-sct convection. Fa remains under
marginal risk svr from spc... Main threats from any stms will be
gusty winds hail. Otherwise... Vrb clouds partly sunny... And
warmer W SW winds 10-20 mph. Highs in the m70s W of i-95 to
the u70s to around 80f across eastern portions of the fa.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday
The upper low continues to lift NE across ERN pa ny new england
late tonight into fri. Drier conditions finally arrive as deep
layered wnw flow develops over the region. Some lingering mid-
level energy could result in sct-bkn CU mid afternoon fri.

Otherwise... Drier and breezy with highs in the upr 70s to low
80s, after morning lows in the mid 50s W to low 60s at the

Weak ridge aloft nudges into the region from the wsw Fri night
into sat. Differing potential timing in arrival of weak S w
tracking into the fa by Sat afternoon. Combination of daytime
heating and that S W in wnw flow aloft may result in at least
sct convective development. Otherwise... Partly cloudy fri
night-sat morning... Then becoming mostly cloudy Sat afternoon.

Lows from the upr 50s NW to the low 60s se. Highs Sat from the
mid upr 70s-around 80f on the eastern shore to the mid 80s

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
Long term period starts off Sat night into Sun with a warm front in
the vicinity and plenty of energy passing through the wnw flow
aloft. This will lead to a chance of shras tstms everywhere, with
low temps in the 60s Sat night and high temps in the low mid 80s
sun. Continued chance of rain into Mon with a weak cold front
passing through the area. Highs again in the low mid 80s. Drier
weather into Tue and Wed behind the front, but still cannot rule out
the chance of a shra or TSTM with continued cyclonic flow aloft.

High temps in the upr 70s to mid 80s both days.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Showers ahead of a cold front will continue to lift NE and exit
eastern locales including ksby by 12-13z. Conditions will
improve toVFR once the front passes. Additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon as an
upper trough moves overhead. Reduced flight conditions are

DrierVFR wx returns by Fri as weak high pressure builds over
the region. Unsettled conditions return for the weekend when
another frontal boundary affects the mid atlantic states.

Latest msas has the frontal boundary stalled just south of the
albemarle sound westward to a cold front crossing the mts. The
boundary is still progged to lift north as a warm front this morning
before the cold front crosses the waters this afternoon and evening.

Once again, a challenging forecast as the models continue to show
different solutions with respect to the frontal movements. Thus,
will basically keep the current forecast going with some minor
changes made to the grids and headlines.

Consensus suggests several bouts of SCA level winds over the next 24-
36 hours. Thus, elected to keep just one headline through Friday to
cover the winds but tweaked directions a bit based off the
frontal movements. SW winds 15-20 kts through this evening
become west at the same speeds late tonight and Friday as the
cold front moves offshore. Went ahead and added SCA to the
currituck sound. Data also supports 15-20 kts today across the
lower james river so added a SCA headline there. Current sea obs
in line with wna forecast in keeping 4-5 ft seas through Friday
across the coastal waters (highest out near 20 nm).

Weak high pres builds in for late Fri leading to improving marine
conditions. Sub-sca conditions expected Fri night into the weekend.

Tides coastal flooding
The continued onshore flow combined with high astro tides will
result in elevated water levels through Friday. The sse winds
continue to pile up the water across the middle ches bay so
based off the latest data, went ahead and extended the coastal
flood advisory for the bay side of the lower md eastern shore
for the next high tide cycle. Also issued coastal flood statements
for the va northern neck and atlantic coastal waters from oxb-cape
charles for levels approaching minor flood levels. See cfwakq
for more details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Friday for anz630>634.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz638.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Friday for anz650-652-654.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Friday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Alb jdm
near term... Alb jdm
short term... Alb jdm
long term... Mas
aviation... Jdm
marine... Mpr
tides coastal flooding...

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi50 min 76°F 67°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi50 min W 11 G 14 72°F 999.8 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi38 min W 9.7 G 12 70°F 999.9 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi50 min WSW 5.1 G 7 73°F 66°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi50 min SSW 9.9 G 13 70°F 67°F999.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi68 min WSW 6 G 6 67°F 64°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi50 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi38 min W 5.8 G 7.8 72°F 998.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi158 min WSW 7 62°F 999 hPa58°F
44063 - Annapolis 35 mi38 min W 5.8 G 9.7 68°F 998.7 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi50 min 69°F 65°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi50 min 71°F 998.5 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi50 min W 8 G 9.9 73°F 66°F999 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 47 mi38 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 67°F 999.7 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi50 min WSW 6 G 8.9 71°F 67°F998.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi50 min W 5.1 G 6 66°F 64°F999.4 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi18 minSSW 7 G 1510.00 miFair75°F62°F65%999 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi16 minWSW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F64°F69%998.8 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi70 minWSW 9 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F62°F65%1000.3 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi15 minSW 8 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F59°F61%999.3 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE7SE8E8E8E9
1 day agoE10E8E7E5NE5NE4--NE4NE7NE5
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmN3NW4CalmN6N6N7----CalmN5N4N4NE4E5

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Thu -- 03:24 AM EDT     2.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:04 AM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:44 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 08:10 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:57 PM EDT     0.22 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Thu -- 02:34 AM EDT     0.92 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:39 AM EDT     -0.81 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 01:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     0.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:46 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 06:00 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:11 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 08:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:51 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.