Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:49PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:10 PM EST (19:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:43AMMoonset 5:22PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 147 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...except around 3 ft near the mouth of the choptank.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 3 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW winds 25 to 30 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ500 147 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move across the waters late tonight into early Sunday morning and high pressure will build to our south later Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 181735
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1235 pm est Sat nov 18 2017

A strong cold front moves across the area Sunday morning. High
pressure builds into the area later Sunday through Monday, then
moves off the coast Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Current forecast on track with only minor adjustments made to
the grids erly this afternoon. Pcpn associated with the warm
front is north of the fa and is progged to stay north of the
area this afternoon. Echoes just west of the fa mainly virga
as lwr levels remain dry. Partly sunny to mstly cldy seasonable.

Gusty south winds 15-25 mph. Highs upr 50s-mid 60s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
Surface low will lift across the eastern great lakes toward
southern quebec tonight into Sunday morning. Trailing cold front
will push across the area after midnight tonight, reaching the
coast around just after dawn Sunday morning. Ahead of the front,
expect quick dewpoint surge as the warm front lifts across the
area Sat aftn night. Low level s-sw flow quickly increasing pw
values into the 1"-1.25" range after 00z sun.

Still anticipate a quick-moving band of showers along and ahead
of the cold front just after midnight out in the piedmont,
reaching the coast by Sunday morning. Aforementioned increasing
pw, along with a narrow axis of low-level convergence forcing,
will lead to a broken line of scattered to numerous showers
through the overnight period. Accordingly, have pushed pop into
high end likely categorical range, highest over western
sections. CAPE is nearly nil through this period, some have
again held thunder wording out.

Breezy conditions persist through the night. H92-850 winds
increase to 40-50 kt as gradient tightens just ahead of the
front. Expect strongest winds to be within a few hours of
frontal passage as subsidence behind the departing boundary
mixes down some of that wind. A wind advisory was considered but
has not been issued with this package, with winds likely to be
just below criteria. That said, expect a small window of windy
conditions Sunday morning (especially north), with blustery and
chilly conditions continuing through Sunday. Temperatures
remain mild tonight before dropping off late tonight.

Temperatures struggle to rise Sunday morning, aided in small
measure by clear sky and sunshine, but remain steady drop off
Sunday afternoon. Winds diminish late afternoon as the gradient
slackens. Cooler with highs in the 50s... To near 60 SE coast.

One last surge of wind possible with another passing
disturbance Sunday night. Blustery conditions ease through the
night as cool sfc high pressure centered over the tn valley
expands east into the mid-atlantic late Sunday and Monday. We
can expect a clear sky and below normal temperatures. Lows
Sunday night in the mid upr 20s piedmont to the mid upr 30s
coast. Highs Monday in the upr 40s to low 50s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
High pressure moves offshore of the region during the day on Tuesday
allowing for a warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will climb into the
upper 50s to lower 60s and lows fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
inland (mid to upper 40s at the coast). Temperatures remain near
normal during the day on Wednesday before a mainly dry cold front
crosses the area Wednesday late afternoon evening. Introduced a
slight chance of pops with the passage of the front, but moisture
appears fairly limited at this time. A cooler airmass moves into the
region for thanksgiving and the end of the work week behind the
front. Temperatures are expected to be below normal for thanksgiving
day with highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows dropping into
the lower 30s away from the coast. An offshore trough develops on
Friday which will bring a chance of rain for coastal areas.

Aviation 18z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions o start the forecast period with only high mid
level clouds overspreading the region through 04z. South winds
become gusty btwn 15-25 kts. Main concern this forecast will be
one of wind shear tonight with models showing 35-50kt at 2k ft
agl. Added ws to all TAF sites ahead of the cold front tonight.

The cold front crosses the area btwn 08z-13z Sun with a band of
showers. Tsctns show some short-lived MVFR ceilings with the
showers along and just ahead of the fropa. Winds quickly swing
around to the w-nw post-frontal and will be highest within a few
hours of frontal passage, but will remain gusty through Sunday.

West winds avg 15-25 kt with gustsy 30-35 kts.

Outlook: high pressure builds over the area later Sunday through
Monday then tracks off the sern coast Tuesday.VFR conditons
expected during this time frame.

High pressure slides off the carolina coasts today as a strong
cold front approaches the area from the west today. Winds a tad
slower to increase through this morning. By this aftn, SW winds
will increase to 15-20kt as the pressure gradient tightens
significantly with the high offshore and the cold front passing
through the ohio valley. 00z model guidance shows impressive
pressure falls of 6-9mb occurring this aftn into this evening
ahead of the front. Expect SW winds to increase to 20-30kt with
gusts ranging from 25-35kt. The pressure gradient tightens up
more after midnight tonight with gusts increasing to 40kt all
coastal waters... Mainly due to a strong temperature gradient
associated with this low pressure system. In addition, gusts
could reach up to 35kt over currituck sound between 200 am to
900 am. Will need to monitor gale gust potential here and
possibly the mouth of ches bay. Seas build to 3-5ft north 3-4ft
south this aftn... Then build to 5-8ft north 5-6ft south after
midnight tonight. Waves build to 3-4ft this aftn... Then build to
4-5ft late this evening.

Cold front crosses the waters around sunrise Sunday morning.

Strong cold air advection, a very persistent tight pressure
gradient, and rapid pressure rises (5-9mb) behind the front will
all contribute to a continuation of strong NW winds 20-30kt with
gusts of 25-40kt through Sunday. Windy conditions will be common
everywhere on Sunday (including over land areas) and generally
uniform with slightly stronger winds occurring over the warmer
waters. Winds should remain generally unchanged Sunday night
with NW winds averaging 15-25kt with gusts averaging 30kt. A
secondary surge in NW winds may be possible Sunday night as
coldest part of airmass swings across the area. However,
relaxing pressure gradient with high pressure building over the
southeast states may prevent a surge from happening. High
pressure continues to build over the southeast states into the
srn mid atlantic region Mon mon night... Sliding offshore on
Tuesday. Adverse boating conditions to subside during Monday
with more benign quiet sub- SCA conditions anticipated through

Gale warnings now in effect for all coastal waters from this
evening through early Monday morning. SCA flags begin on ches
bay by mid morning today through mid morning Monday morning.

River sound begin this aftn and persist through roughly sunrise
Monday morning. For specific details, please visit

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi71 min S 23 G 24 53°F 54°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi41 min SSW 9.9 58°F 1005 hPa38°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi86 minS 13 G 2010.00 miFair55°F41°F59%1008.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi79 minS 810.00 miMostly Cloudy59°F39°F48%1007.3 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi79 minS 15 G 2110.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F37°F48%1008.1 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi85 minSSW 7 G 1710.00 miFair57°F37°F48%1007.8 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8
1 day agoW106
2 days ago--------------------------------------W9W6W6SW46

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Sat -- 02:39 AM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:09 AM EST     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:28 PM EST     1.98 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:49 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:22 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:48 PM EST     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sat -- 12:00 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:24 AM EST     0.38 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:18 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:27 AM EST     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:57 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:20 PM EST     0.79 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:00 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:24 PM EST     -0.75 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.