Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 11:03 AM EST (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:08AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 936 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Rest of today..NW winds 10 kt...becoming S late. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming nw. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely through the day, then a chance of showers through the night.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 936 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Surface high pressure will reside over new england through Thursday as a weak boundary lingers just south of the waters. Low pressure over the deep south will approach the waters from the southwest late Friday into Saturday, with unsettled weather potentially persisting into Sunday. High pressure will build over the waters early next week. Small craft advisory conditions likely Friday night and into Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 121200
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
700 am est Wed dec 12 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will prevail over the mid-atlantic through
Thursday. Low pressure approaches from the southwest Thursday
night into Friday, and tracks across the region Friday afternoon
through early Saturday. An upper level trough will remain over
the area through Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 400 am est Wednesday...

current GOES wv data shows an upper trough pushing off the new
england and mid-atlantic coasts, ahead of a ridge over ohio
valley. A NRN stream trough is digging across the midwest, with
a SRN stream trough lagging back over the NRN baja peninsula and
desert sw. At the surface, 1027mb high pressure is centered
over the NRN gulf coast, with low pressure E of CAPE cod. There
was some light mixing earlier in wsw flow, but most locations
away from the coast are now decoupling, and temperatures are
dropping into the low 20s where snow cover is present under a
clear sky. Closer to the coast, temperatures are holding in the
low mid 30s.

High pressure gradually slides off the southeast coast today.

Sunny this morning with some high clouds arriving this aftn.

High temperatures today range from the low mid 40s inland, to
the mid upper 40s toward the coast, with a light W or NW wind
this morning becoming SE in the aftn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
As of 400 am est Wednesday...

a weak trough (the one over the midwest early this
morning) clips the NRN mid-atlantic Thursday, with high pressure
building across new england in the wake of this system. Temperatures
will be slow to moderate Thursday, although dewpoints rising into
the low mid 30s should hasten snow melt. Remaining dry tonight to
Thursday with lows in the upper 20s low 30s Thursday morning,
followed by highs in the mid 40s inland, to the low mid 50s in se
va NE nc.

The aforementioned SRN stream trough will reach ERN tx la by late
Thursday night, with a moist frontal band emerging from the gulf
into the deep south ahead of the low. Continued dry Thursday night
with lows in the low 30s inland to the upper 30s low 40s at the
coast.

The upper level system traverses the deep south Friday into Friday
night, as the moist frontal band pushes toward the mid-atlantic
Friday aftn into Friday night. 12 00z models remain in good
agreement with a warm and wet pattern prevailing Friday aftn into
Friday night. Storm total QPF of 0.75-1.5" is expected, with up to
2.0" possible through 12z Saturday. This combined saturated ground
from snowmelt will bring potential flooding. A flood watch will
certainly be worth consideration with later forecast packages if
current setup remains in place in modeled data, and will continue to
make a mention in hwo, given pops in the 70-90% range. Mmefs still
depicts minor river flooding with moderate flooding possible.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
As of 355 pm est Tuesday...

Saturday's low pressure system departs offshore by Sunday morning
with residual showers possible across far southern va and northeast
nc as the upper level low swings across the region. Still some
disagreement between the models on this feature, decided to go
closer to the ecm fv3. Ecm is still consistent with showing low
pressure redevelop off the nc coast Sunday night into Monday.

This would allow for rain showers to linger across the east into
Monday morning. The operational GFS is more progressive with
the upper level low, thus has dry weather by Sunday afternoon.

Introduced chance pops across the south and southeast Sunday
afternoon into Monday morning to take into account both model
solutions. Dry weather Monday and Tuesday as high pressure
builds back across the region. Temperatures moderate by this
weekend with southerly flow ahead of the next low pressure
system, currently have highs in the lower 50s NW to the low mid
60s across the SE for Saturday. Sunday will feature highs in the
low to mid 50s across the region. Temperatures trend cooler
early next week as cool high pressure builds across the area.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 700 am est Wednesday...

high pressure is centered over the deep south early this
morning, and it will gradually slide across the southeast coast
today and move offshore tonight. Localized bkn-ovc CIGS at sby
of 5-6kft should persist through about 14z. Otherwise, expect
mainly high clouds today. A light wsw wind early will become
nw, and then become sse (locally ene at orf) as high pressure
slides off the coast later this aftn.

High pressure continues to prevail Thursday into Thursday night.

Low pressure approaches from the SW Friday and moves across the
area Friday night into Saturday bringing rain and degraded
flight conditions. An upper level trough lingers over the area
into Sunday.

Marine
As of 630 am est Wednesday...

update: went ahead and cancelled the scas south of CAPE charles
as buoy obs continue to show diminishing seas.

Previous discussion:
latest sfc analysis indicates low pressure well offshore of the
mid-atlantic northeast coast, with weak sfc troughing over wrn
va. Winds are out of the NW nnw at 10-15 kt over the bay 15-20
kt over the ocean. Since buoy 44009 is reporting ~4 ft seas ~20
nm offshore of the md de border (w only 3.3 ft seas at the
wallops buoy), opted to cancel all scas north of CAPE charles. A
weak shortwave trough aloft will be passing just to our NE from
now through around mid-morning. This will bring weak cold
advection to the region (mainly north), but wind gusts will
likely stay just below SCA thresholds over the bay and ocean
zones. Cannot rule out a few gusts to SCA thresholds in elevated
areas (mainly N of parramore island), but these will be
infrequent short-lived.

Tranquil marine conditions are in store from this afternoon
through Thursday night as high pressure will dominate our local
weather. Longer term model guidance shows low pressure (sfc-
aloft) approaching the area on Friday. The latest 00z 12
gfs ECMWF gem are in relative agreement that sfc low pressure
develops near or just south of the region late fri- Sat as an
upper low slowly moves eastward across the deep south. This
first area of sfc low pressure likely moves offshore by late in
the day on sat. The upper low may approach the region late this
weekend as a secondary area of low pressure deepens offshore.

However, the timing placement of the upper low vary
substantially among the latest gfs ECMWF gem. Will continue to
show increasing winds seas beginning Friday with the potential
for SCA conditions (most likely across offshore zones) through
Sunday.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Ajz
near term... Ajz
short term... Ajz mam
long term... Ajb
aviation... Ajz
marine... Eri


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi52 min 40°F 39°F1023.6 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi46 min N 8.9 G 11 40°F 1024.1 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi46 min NNW 5.1 G 7 40°F 42°F1023.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi46 min NNE 2.9 G 5.1 42°F 38°F1023.8 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi64 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 41°F1024.5 hPa (+2.1)24°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi52 min NW 6 G 7
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi34 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 41°F 1023.1 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi154 min Calm 29°F 1023 hPa28°F
CPVM2 36 mi46 min 41°F 25°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi46 min 40°F 1023.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi52 min W 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 39°F1023.7 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi52 min Calm G 1 37°F 42°F1023.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi46 min WSW 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 40°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi84 minN 010.00 miFair41°F28°F61%1023.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi72 minNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy44°F26°F49%1023.5 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi76 minWNW 510.00 miClear43°F26°F53%1024.7 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair39°F24°F56%1024 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW6NW8
G14
NW7NW7CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5
G11
CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6
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G12
N9N8N4CalmN5N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N5CalmN4N6N4N4Calm
2 days agoN7NE9N7N6NE8N7N9N11N9N7
G13
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G16
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G17

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
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Wed -- 01:48 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:25 AM EST     0.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:29 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:55 PM EST     1.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.20.30.50.80.90.90.80.50.30.1-0-00.10.40.81.21.51.51.51.310.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:27 AM EST     -0.68 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 03:51 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:22 AM EST     0.39 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:34 PM EST     -0.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 02:47 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:01 PM EST     0.55 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 09:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.7-0.7-0.5-0.200.30.40.40.30.1-0-0.2-0.3-0.3-0.200.30.50.60.50.30.1-0.2-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.