Wednesday, September26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 6:55PM Wednesday September 26, 2018 6:19 AM EDT (10:19 UTC) Moonrise 7:09PMMoonset 7:13AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 437 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from this evening through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of the overnight..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Scattered showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming N late. Gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Numerous showers and scattered tstms. Patchy fog.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming se. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 437 Am Edt Wed Sep 26 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong cold front will approach the waters from the ohio valley today, cross the waters tonight, and stall south of the waters Thursday. A wave of low pressure will ride northeast along the front Thursday night. High pressure will build over the waters during the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 260749
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
349 am edt Wed sep 26 2018

Low pressure off the north carolina this morning, will move
northeast then east and back out to sea this afternoon and
evening. A cold front moves into the region tonight, then
stalls across the area Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

a rather active weather map for late sept. First, the semi-tropical
low is located about 100 miles ssw of hat. This feature is not
expected to develop any further today as it is progged to get caught
up in the westerlies and scoot north then NE across the vacapes this
aftrn and eve. Will keep low chc pops in the grids along the coast
for any shwrs assctd with the coastal low this morning, but the
majority of the pcpn is expected to remain offshore. The main
forecast issue this morning will be the fog with most areas
away from the water reporting reduced vsbys. Already have an
sps out for this, but may have to upgrade to an dense fog advsry
in some areas if vsbys get lower than 1 2sm.

This all ahead of an approaching cold front not progged into the
area until tonight. Thus, most of the morning and erly afternoon hrs
should remain dry after the morning crud burns off. Partly to mstly
sunny skies allows temps to quickly rise into the 80s with readings
topping out in the mid-upr 80s before any pcpn arrives. No records
expected as the record highs for today are in the mid 90s.

Models continue to slow and somewhat narrow the ribbon of moisture
ahead of the boundary so have cut back pops with pcpn overspreading
the area nw-se after 18z and may very well be after 21z over the
east. SPC keeps the severe threat north of the local area but could
not rule any storm producing gusty winds locally hvy rainfall.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

the front slowly sags south across the area tonight, now progged to
slip into northern nc by 12z thurs. Models show abundant moisture
riding north of the boundary to keep likely pops going thru the
night as the pcpn becomes more ana-frontal. Any thunder will be
limited to SRN zones this evening. Cad develops after midnight with
lows from near 60 NW to nr 70 se.

The front becomes parallel with the flow and stalls across nc
Thursday. Another wave of energy keeps the deep moisture across the
area with yet another in-situ wedge occurring. This will be much
like earlier this week with low clouds periodic rain and fog
Thursday and Thursday night across the piedmont. Thus, changed pcpn
mode to more stratiformed over most of the fa Thursday and Thursday
night but kept it more convective along the coastal areas as the
boundary may snake its way up the coast a bit. Temps tricky with
very little rise in readings across the piedmont. Highs from the lwr
60s NW to near 80 along the albemarle sound. Lows Thursday night
from the upr 50s NW to near 70 se.

Fridays forecast remains a bit of a challenge given the amount of
lingering low level moisture. The low departs to the ene Friday
morning with chc to low end likely pops. Winds become rather light
and vrbl along with plenty of moisture noted in tsctns. Airmass
modifies a bit allowing the pcpn to become more convective in
nature again. Kept chc pops Friday aftrn with highs recovering
into the mid 70s NW to lwr 80s se.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 305 pm edt Tuesday...

forecast period starts with a cold front pushing through the
area on Friday, as broad high pressure builds to the north of
the area Friday night into Saturday. GFS remains a bit quicker
to bring cooler and drier air through post-frontal during the
day on Friday, and 25 12z trends are slightly slower with the
frontal timing, so did maintain a low pop slightly Friday
evening, as well as a slight chance mention for us-58 corridor
into nc into Saturday. Second half of the upcoming weekend into
early next week looking a bit cooler and drier, or at least
relatively speaking. However, markedly cooler air aloft remains
off to the north of the region, with temperatures locally only
to fall back toward climo normal. Highs generally range from the
upper 70s to lower 80s Friday through Sunday with dewpoints
dropping off slightly each day Saturday through Monday. Lows
generally upper 50s to low 60s inland and upper 60s to low 70s
at the coast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 145 am edt Wednesday...

fog developing across the area mainly west of the ches bay
early this morning. Fog will likely continue to reduce vsbys
thru 12z in areas away from the water. Thus, have hit the fog
hard in the 06z forecast period with ric already down to the
deck and may bounce back and forth btwn lifr ifr this morning.

Looks like sby phf may follow as the night wears on. Kept vcsh
at ecg for a few more hrs based on radar trends of a few shwrs
rotating wnw arnd the tropical low off the carolina coast.

Otw, improving conditions expected after sunrise with sct-bkn
cu btwn 4-5k ft this aftrn ahead of the apprchg cold front.

Pcpn along and ahead of the bndry not expected to make it into
the TAF sites until after 21z or more closer to 00z. Thus, have
held off on any pcpn metion until then. Kept thunder out of
forecast attm, but expect it to be added with future forecasts.

Outlook... The front approaches stalls out just south of the
area Thu into Friday. This keeps the chc for both stratiformed
and convective pcpn thurs and Thu night and psbly into fri.

As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

offshore low pressure is centered about 75 miles sse of cape
hatteras this morning and is slowly drifting ene. Meanwhile, a
second low pressure system is centered over the northern great lakes
with an attendant cold front stretching southwest into the southern
plains. Locally, winds are light from the south early this morning.

As the cold front approaches from the west today S to SW winds are
expected to increase to 10-15 kt by this afternoon. Waves remaining
1-2, except up to 3 ft at the mouth of the bay. Seas 4-6 ft. The
offshore low will continue to track ene and away from the local area
today, eventually getting absorbed into the approaching frontal
boundary tonight. Winds then turn to the NW and N post-frontal
tonight, then ene on Thursday. Latest hi-res models do show a brief
surge of higher winds (15-20 kt W gusts to 25 kt) at least as far
south as new pt comfort early Thursday morning. Therefore, have
opted to hoist an SCA for our northern two bay zones thru 10 am
thurs. Waves building to 2-4 ft overnight on the bay, before
subsiding to 1-3 ft again by midday thurs. Seas will continue to
lower tonight to around 3-4 ft south of CAPE charles and 4-5 ft
north. Should be able to end the SCA for the southern waters
tonight. SCA for the northern waters has been extended through thurs
as seas expected to remain around 5 ft. Sub-sca conditions expected
Friday with N to NW winds AOB 10 kt. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-3 ft.

Potential exists for another round of scas across the southern
waters this weekend due to nne winds building seas to 5 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
As of 330 am edt Wednesday...

tidal anomalies are still running around 1.5 ft above normal which
will keep water levels elevated adjacent the chesapeake bay and the
tidal riverd and tributaries of eastern va and lower md through the
midday and afternoon high tide cycle today. Coastal flood advisories
have been extended in time for the middle peninsula, northern neck
and lower md eastern shore adjacent the chesapeake bay through this
afternoon. Coastal flood statements for water levels nearing minor
flooding thresholds are in place for the va eastern shore, hampton
roads, and portions of SE va adjacent the ches bay, york and james
river for the upcoming late morning high tide cycle.

Expecting anomalies to continue to slowly fall late today with a
decreasing threat for minor flooding as we head into late week. The
best potential for minor coastal flooding to continue into the early
Thursday morning high tide cycle is at bishops head, but will
refrain from extending headlines out at this time due to low

Kdox is offline due to an equipment issue. Parts are on order
and technicians hope to have radar online after parts are
received. However, no return to service time is available at
this time.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... Coastal flood advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for

Nc... None.

Va... Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for

Coastal flood advisory until 2 pm edt this afternoon for

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 10 am edt Thursday for

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz650-652-

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Thursday for anz656-658.

Synopsis... Mpr
near term... Mpr
short term... Mpr
long term... Mam
aviation... Mpr
marine... Jdm
tides coastal flooding... Jdm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi37 min 74°F 74°F1017.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi31 min S 5.1 G 6 75°F 1017.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi29 min WSW 3.9 G 3.9 75°F 1017 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi31 min WSW 5.1 G 6 75°F 76°F1016.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi31 min S 6 G 7 75°F 78°F1017.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi19 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 73°F 72°F1017.1 hPa (-1.9)73°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi37 min SW 7 G 8
44042 - Potomac, MD 33 mi29 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 76°F 1015.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi109 min SSE 1.9 64°F 1017 hPa
CPVM2 36 mi31 min 73°F 73°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi31 min 73°F 1015.9 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi31 min SW 4.1 G 6 75°F 74°F1016.4 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi31 min SSW 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 74°F1015.9 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi31 min SSW 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 72°F1016.6 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi87 minS 37.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F73°F87%1016.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi29 minSSW 35.00 miFog/Mist75°F75°F100%1017.9 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi31 minN 05.00 miOvercast73°F71°F94%1017.3 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW10NW6
1 day ago3W4NW15
2 days agoSE10

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.