Saturday, March17, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:15PM Saturday March 17, 2018 8:25 AM EDT (12:25 UTC) Moonrise 6:31AMMoonset 6:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 732 Am Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely this morning, then rain likely with a chance of sleet this afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain or snow.
Tue..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. Snow through the day. Rain. A chance of snow through the night.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of snow or rain.
ANZ500 732 Am Edt Sat Mar 17 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Weak low pressure will pass by to the south of the waters later this afternoon into this evening. High pressure will return for late tonight through Sunday night. Low pressure will pass through the tennessee valley on Monday, transitioning to a coastal low off the mid-atlantic coast Monday night into Tuesday. Another low may impact the waters Wednesday. A small craft advisory will likely be needed for the waters Monday night through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 170856
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
456 am edt Sat mar 17 2018

Low pressure moves east across the mid atlantic region today,
followed by a secondary low pressure system passing south
through the carolinas tonight. High pressure builds into the
area Sunday, then moves offshore Sunday night. A trio of low
pressure system are expected to impact the region Monday through

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Latest surface analysis shows low pressure near kansas city with
a nearly stationary frontal boundary extending southeastward
from this low to the nc sc border and offshore. Initial
shortwave energy ahead of the advancing sfc low impacts the
local area during Saturday. Hi-res IR imagery showing high
clouds beginning to thicken over western va and these clouds
will eventually lower and become more dense from later this
morning into early afternoon from west to east. Latest 00z suite
of models including hi-res guidance has slowed the progression
of pcpn until late morning lunchtime with some light
overrunning pcpn advancing quickly across the fa this afternoon.

Although there is plenty of moisture noted in the mid-levels
via bufkit soundings, only weak lift is progged with this first
impulse today so QPF amounts will be minimal. Therefore, only
have modest pops 30-40% this afternoon and up to 60% north of
ric over to the lower md eastern shore. Also, with models
slowing onset of pcpn til closer to midday, don't think there
will be any p-type issues other than some reports of rain
mixing with sleet at the onset from louisa fluvanna to the
northern neck. Highs today from the mid 40s eastern shore to the
upr 50s around 60 southside va into interior NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
A second wave of energy associated with the sfc low currently
near kansas city tracks SE tonight and crosses the carolinas
overnight, then moves offshore before daybreak Sunday. Pcpn is
expected to be better organized as it pushes SE across the sw
2 3rds of the fa this evening and overnight. Therefore, have
30-60% pops aligned along south of i-64 tonight with highest
pops from southside va into NE nc. Pcpn probably tapers off
prior to daybreak Sunday morning, except lingering over coastal
ne nc thru 12z. There should be some clearing from n-s early
Sunday morning as well, as the low pushes offshore and high
pressure begins to build in from the north. Lows from the upr
20s to low 30s north where clearing occurs to the mid upr 30s to
nr 40 south where clouds and pcpn hold on the longest.

High pressure builds over the area Sunday then pushes offshore
Sunday night. Dry with a mostly sunny sky Sunday, then
increasing clouds from west to east late Sunday night Monday
morning. H85 temps support high near 60 across the piedmont,
50s along the coast Sunday. Lows Sunday night in the low-mid

High pressure pushes farther offshore Monday and will be quickly
followed by overrunning pcpn leading to a weak or in-situ cad
setup across the region. Meanwhile, a potent shortwave races
eastward from the southern plains in the morning into the tn
valley by late in the day. QPF amounts during Monday are not
expected to be all the much at this time. However, an overcast
sky and onshore flow will lead to a chilly day. Highs from the
mid upr 40s N to the low mid 50s NE nc.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Widespread pcpn in the form of rain is expected Monday night as
the aforementioned shortwave reaches the appalachians by around
12z tue. Meanwhile, sfc low pressure organizes over the
carolinas Monday night before emerging off the mid-atlantic
coast and deepening Tuesday morning. Will carry likely to
categorical pops Monday and Tuesday, although it does appears
that the heaviest pcpn comes Monday night into Tuesday morning
with high pressure briefly returning Tuesday afternoon for just
some lingering clouds and light spotty rain.

Potent shortwave #2 will be on the hills of Monday night's
system as we head into Tuesday night Wednesday morning. Again,
shortwave #2 crosses the carolinas Tuesday night while another
sfc low develops and deepens off the mid-atlantic coast wed
morning. The third piece of the puzzle, this time a northern
stream shortwave dropping south from the ohio valley into the
mid-atlantic region on Wednesday, will bring a shot of colder
air aloft into the area during Wednesday and may cause pcpn to
turn over to snow into northern central va and the lower md
eastern shore. There's a lot of moving parts that will have to
come together perfectly for this scenario to play out, but it's
one that does bear watching as both the GFS and ECMWF show this
potential. The GFS is stronger and more negatively-tilted with
the shortwave Wednesday which would lend to a better chance of
snow as moisture lingers or gets forced westward into the colder
air before the coastal low departs. The ECMWF shoves the
coastal low out to see faster and is a touch slower with the
northern shortwave and hence would have little to snow on
Wednesday. This forecast package took a blend of these two
solutions which allows for the possibility of a rain snow mix
across the western half of the fa Tuesday night Wednesday.

Before that, just expecting p-type to be in the form of rain
Monday night thru Tuesday eve. Lows Tuesday night from the low
30s NW to the low 40s se. Highs Wednesday 35-40, except low-mid
40s far se. Pcpn ends Wednesday night with drier air returning
Thursday Friday. Lows Wednesday night in the upr 20s to mid 30s.

Highs Thursday Friday in the 40s to low 50s.

Aviation 09z Saturday through Wednesday
A pair of low pressure system will impact the local area through
early Sunday morning. The systems will bring mid level clouds
that will overspread the region later this morning into the
afternoon evening and also bring rain to the area by late
morning into early afternoon. Light rain will most likely
affect all the TAF sites from late afternoon into tonight. A
brief period of MVFR ceilings and visibilities may be possible
during the overnight.

Outlook: gradual clearing from north to south, withVFR conditions
Sunday as high pressure briefly returns. Another window of flight
restrictions by mon-wed as a trio of low pressure system impact
the area.

Fairly benign conditions prevail across the marine area today
with weak sfc high pushing off the nc coast this morning,
followed by a weak area of low pressure progged to move across
southern va and NE nc late this aftn into tonight. Nnw winds
~10 kt will become light variable before turning to the E se
later today. Seas to avg 2-3 ft and waves 1-2 ft or less. As
the sfc low moves off the nc coast late tonight early sun
morning, will see a bit of a surge in nne winds to ~15 kt. Very
little in the way of cold air however, so do not anticipate
needing and SCA headlines even though a few hrs worth of gusts
to 20 kt will be possible early Sun morning. Otherwise, winds
diminish to 5-10 kt or less Sun aftn while shifting to the E and
the to the S Sun night.

Conditions become much more unsettled and stormy later mon
through at least midweek as the next low pressure system
approaches from the tn valley, then is progged to re-develop as
a coastal low off the mid-atlc coast on tue. First low pushes
off to the NE Tue aftn evening with yet another low expected to
develop off the SE coast and then rapidly intensify while
pushing ne# off the mid-atlc coast Wed wed night. At least
strong SCA conditions appear likely Mon night through wed, with
a period of gales even a possibility Tue and again Wed wed night
depending on the exact track of these systems.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jdm
near term... Jdm
short term... Jdm
long term... Jdm
aviation... Jdm
marine... Lkb

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 7 mi37 min 37°F 41°F1017.5 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 13 mi37 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 37°F 1017.6 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi25 min N 7.8 G 9.7 38°F 1017.7 hPa (+0.5)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi37 min W 5.1 G 7 37°F 41°F1017.1 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 21 mi37 min N 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 38°F1017.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi25 min WNW 5.1 G 5.1 34°F 40°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi37 min WSW 6 G 8
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi115 min Calm 24°F 1017 hPa23°F
CPVM2 36 mi37 min 35°F 14°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 37 mi37 min 35°F 1016.1 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 38 mi37 min WSW 6 G 8 33°F 42°F1017.8 hPa
NCDV2 48 mi37 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 32°F 43°F1017 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 49 mi37 min NW 8 G 11 35°F 40°F1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi50 minNW 410.00 miFair30°F19°F64%1016.6 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi93 minW 310.00 miFair29°F18°F63%1016.4 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi38 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy34°F17°F51%1017.6 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi48 minWSW 310.00 miFair28°F19°F69%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6NW12
1 day agoSW4SW9SW12
2 days agoW7W12

Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Sat -- 04:00 AM EDT     1.45 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 10:51 AM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:33 PM EDT     1.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:13 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:17 PM EDT     0.12 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sat -- 12:50 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:36 AM EDT     0.55 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:51 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:14 AM EDT     New Moon
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     -0.55 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 12:54 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:49 PM EDT     0.60 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:06 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:27 PM EDT     -0.60 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.