Saturday, June23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Church Creek, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 23, 2018 2:11 PM EDT (18:11 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 132 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
This afternoon..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the day, then showers and tstms likely through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will slowly move northward across the waters today. Meanwhile, low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes. This low will continue moving eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Church Creek, MD
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location: 38.5, -76.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 231427
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
1027 am edt Sat jun 23 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will lift north of the area this morning. A cold
front will approach from the northwest late Sunday, then drop
across the area Sunday evening into Monday morning. High
pressure will build in from the north Monday afternoon into
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1020 am edt Saturday...

a warm front is located from the central va piedmont to the md
ern shore as of 10 am. Some light showers are quickly tracking
ne toward the md ERN shore, but otherwise most of the area is
rain-free. Mostly cloudy to overcast conditions are occurring
across the NRN half of the area, with mostly sunny conditions s.

Temperatures range from the upper 60s low 70s N of the front to
the mid 80s S of the boundary.

The warm front lifts north of the region and winds become ssw
and increase a bit over the entire area by midday. A lee side
trough developing, combined with the approach of shortwave
energy and moderate instability, will then result in more
showers and tstms forming this aftn into this evening. This
activity will move ewrd and offshore late this evening into the
overnight hrs. SPC has portions of cntrl and ERN va, and the
lower md ERN shore in a slight risk for severe tstms this aftn
into this evening. The main threats will be damaging winds and
large hail.

The sky will become partly to mostly sunny today with highs
ranging fm the mid 80s to lower 90s. Heat indices likely reach
around 100f over far SE va and NE nc.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday
As of 430 am edt Saturday...

very warm and still rather humid on sun, as winds will be more
wsw in advance of an actual cold front approaching fm the nw.

Partly to mostly sunny with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Isolated to sctd showers and tstms (20-40% pops) will be
possible fm late Sun aftn into Mon morning, as the front pushes
into and acrs the region. Lows Sun night will range fm the upper
60s to mid 70s. Mon will be dry and slightly less humid, as high
pressure starts to build in fm the north. Highs will mainly be
in the mid to upper 80s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 340 pm edt Friday...

a ridge of high pressure builds in from the north on Tuesday as
a cold front and rain exit well to the south. This will provide
drier and cooler weather with afternoon highs in the low to
middle 80s. Dewpoints in the lower 60s will aid in making
Tuesday even more pleasant... Much different than the upper
70 near 80 degree dewpoints we have been experiencing.

Mid-level troughing arrives as high pressure moves offshore
Wednesday, and the GFS tries to spark showers and thunderstorms over
the northwest corner of our CWA in the afternoon. The euro keeps wet
weather slightly further west. Like most rain events this time of
year, these appear to be diurnally driven, dissipating by late
evening. Highs Wednesday will return to the upper 80s. Models
diverge in solutions regarding timing placement of rain Thursday and
Friday, but expect better chances mid-morning Thursday and again
Friday afternoon.

Temperatures by Thursday will warm into the lower 90s and push the
mid 90s by Friday. With southerly winds in play, expect muggy
conditions and nighttime temperatures in the lower 70s.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 210 am edt Saturday...

early this morning, weak low pressure was over SE va along a
warm front. That low will lift NE thru this morning, pulling the
warm front north of the area. Until the front lifts north of the
region, expect ifr CIGS to continue at ric and sby, and possibly
MVFR ifr CIGS at phf. Then, increasing ssw winds will improve
conditions CIGS toVFR everywhere by late this morning. More
sctd showers tstms will be possible late this aftn into this
evening, as a sfc trough weak cold front pushes into the region
fm the west. An actual cold front will then cross the area sun
evening into Mon morning, with isolated to sctd showers or tstms
possible. Drier conditions arrive early next week.

Marine
As of 300 am edt Saturday...

marie fog developing along the eastern shore beaches as the flow
remain onshore ahead of the warm frontal passage. Thus, went
ahead and hoisted a marine dense fog advisory thru 12z for now.

Latest msas has a frontal boundary nearly stationary across the
james river and southern ches bay. Winds have been just about every
direction possible over the past several hours due to the numerous
rounds of shwrs tstms. The boundary is progged to lift north as a
warm front today allowing winds to become sse most areas as the day
progresses. Speeds remain blo 20 kts, so no SCA for winds expected.

However, seas across the northern coastal waters will avg 4 to 6 ft
(highest out near 20 nm) through tonight so went ahead and extended
the SCA there mainly for seas thru 10z sun. Despite the southerly
wind direction, wna has backed off a bit on seas so held off on
any sca's there due to the lower confidence.

A cold front will move across the waters Sun night, shifting winds
to the north by mon, NE Mon nite then ese tue. No real big push of
cold air seen ATTM so kept winds seas blo SCA levels for now.

Hydrology
The river flood warning for the rivanna at palmyra has been
cancelled as the water level has dropped below flood stage. A
flood warning is also in effect for the north anna and upper
pamunkey rivers due to the combination of heavy rainfall and
increased dam releases at lake anna. The increased dam releases
have been terminated, but it will still take some time for the
water to flow through the basin. Therefore, the warning has been
extended at least through this evening.

Tides coastal flooding
Bishops head and lewisetta peaked with levels just above minor
flooding overnight with several other points reaching action stage.

No issues expected with the early high tide cycle today as it will
be the lower of the two, but bishops head may reach minor flooding
once again with tonights high tide around 03z with several other
points reaching action stage. Levels are progged between 1 to 1.5 ft
above normal.

A moderate rip current risk today along the eastern shore beaches
with low risk at va beach and the northern ob.

Climate
Ric ended up with 7.61 inches of rain Friday. See rerric for details.

This is the second all time daily rainfall record at ric. The all-
time daily rainfall record at ric is 8.79 inches set on august 12,
1955 associated with hurricane connie.

In addition, orf set a new daily rainfall record of 2.28 inches Friday.

See rerorf for details.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz650-652.

Synopsis... Tmg
near term... Ajz tmg
short term... Tmg jao
long term... Bms eri
aviation... Tmg
marine... Mpr
hydrology... Akq
tides coastal flooding... Akq
climate... Akq


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 14 mi32 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 76°F 1010.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 31 mi72 min N 1.9 G 2.9 72°F 74°F1011 hPa (+0.0)71°F
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi102 min Calm 70°F 1010 hPa67°F
44063 - Annapolis 36 mi32 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 72°F 1010 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD8 mi37 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy82°F71°F70%1009.5 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD19 mi80 minSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy83°F73°F74%1009.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD22 mi27 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F71°F74%1010.8 hPa
St Marys County Airport, MD24 mi35 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy79°F69°F74%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE11E10E13
G19
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NE7NE7E8E7
G13
E7NE5CalmNE3CalmE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalm
1 day agoNW8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmS5CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW5NW8NW11NW10
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for Woolford, Church Creek, Little Choptank River, Maryland
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Woolford
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Sat -- 12:39 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:30 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.32.32.21.91.71.310.80.70.81.11.41.61.61.51.210.70.50.40.50.81.21.7

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.60.40.1-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.6-0.4-0.20.10.30.30.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.300.40.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.