Wednesday, June20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hanksville, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:45PM Wednesday June 20, 2018 1:15 PM MDT (19:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:40PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanksville, UT
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location: 38.52, -110.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 201513
afdslc
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
913 am mdt Wed jun 20 2018

Synopsis High pressure will bring a warming and drying trend
through Thursday. A series of weak storm systems will bring
somewhat cooler weather to the forecast area Friday through the
upcoming weekend.

Discussion
Impacts...

* very warm today and tomorrow across southern utah.

* critical fire weather conditions possible Thursday into the
weekend.

Antecedent conditions...

extreme drought is occurring from south of provo south to cedar
city and to the southeast. Severe drought is occurring surrounding
the extreme drought, in areas from ogden southward and duchesne
to the arizona border. Drought conditions scale down to abnormally
dry along the idaho and wyoming border.

Big picture...

during the past 5 days, flow across the pacific has transitioned
from zonal to slightly amplified.

Water vapor satellite shows a ridge centered over baja california,
amplified north into oregon. A disturbance is off the oregon and
northern california coast.

Local observations and trends...

00z kslc RAOB shows a 1.5c subsidence inversion near 640mb with
moderate northwest mid level flow and strong northwest flow aloft.

Precipitable water values range from 0.20"-0.33" mountains to
0.50"-0.75" northern valleys.

A 1021mb surface anticyclone is located across northwest wyoming,
with a 1009mb surface cyclone southwest of nevada. This is
creating a 9mb northeast pressure gradient across the state.

24 hour trends:
* precipitable water 0.10"-0.15" higher south central and
southeast utah.

* temperatures are between 5f cooler and 5f warmer
* dewpoint depression 5-15f lower (moister) except 5f higher
(drier) across the north.

Forecast...

going forecast for tonight is in great shape. Ridging surface and
aloft providing stable conditions. It will continue to warm and
dry today. No significant changes to the forecast.

Previous discussion
Mid level ridging noted in early morning satellite imagery and
objective analysis across the great basin will translate eastward
today, allowing a dry, warm, and stable airmass to overspread the
forecast area. This will allow MAX temps to climb several degrees
over what was observed Tuesday, particularly across the north.

As this ridge axis continues east tonight into Thursday,
increasing southwesterly flow aloft will advect a very warm
airmass into the region, with MAX temperatures expected to run 10
or so degrees above climo.

A shortwave trough which is forecast to brush by the area Thursday
night into early Friday will push a mostly dry cold front through
the region, with the only real threat for showers remaining
minimal, and largely confined to the higher terrain north of i-80.

With the passage of the cold front MAX temperatures should run
close to climo in the north Friday, and a few degrees above in the
south.

Late Friday through Saturday afternoon will largely be a break
between shortwave troughs, with an increase in winds and
temperatures ahead of the next system that is expected to drop in
from the pacific northwest. This next trough looks stronger and a
bit more of a direct hit on northern utah, especially with regards
to low level cold advection and winds associated with the front.

Have increased winds for Saturday afternoon, especially for post-
frontal winds in the northwest desert.

As far as precipitation goes, the best moisture and mid-level
forcing still look to remain northeast of much of the forecast area.

Have maintained some low end pops across the northeast and the
northern central mountains, but in general the best activity should
be across idaho and wyoming.

As the trough digs into colorado on Sunday, continued shower
activity is possible across NE utah and uinta co. Wyoming. Sunday
should also yield a noticeable cool-down virtually area-wide, with a
persistent northwest flow in the lower levels.

Temperatures rebound for the beginning of the work week, as the
trough exits the rockies and ridging builds over much of the
western conus. Models hint that just enough mid-level moisture may
linger under the ridge to allow for mountain convection Tuesday
and Wednesday, so have added some low level pops to typical
locations both afternoons. Otherwise, expect hot and dry weather
to persist through mid-week.

Aviation
Vfr conditions are expected to prevail at kslc through the taf
period. Southerly winds will become calm about 16z with northerly
winds becoming established no later than 17z. The switch back to
southerly winds will happen around 03-04z this evening.

Fire weather
Erc values are running between the 80th and 96th percentile across
eastern and southern utah, and rising above the 50th percentile
across northern and west central utah. Values are steady or rising
except falling along the northern utah border. 100 1000 hour fuel
moisture has risen just above historical lows across most areas.

A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and stable conditions
across the state today. A system will enter oregon today and
progress into the northern rockies tomorrow. This will support a
dry cold front crossing northern and portions of central utah
tomorrow afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will develop with a
haines of 6, much warmer temperatures and single digit rh most
locations. Critical fire weather conditions are possible where
fuels are critical.

This boundary will progress to the arizona border Friday, bringing
a gusty northwest flow. It will be almost as warm, with nearly as
low rh and a haines of 6 across the south tomorrow. Thus,
critical fire weather conditions may persist.

The boundary lifts northward into southern utah Saturday with many
variables being similar to Friday there. A gusty westerly wind may
present a continuation of critical fire conditions across southern
utah Saturday.

The next system dives southeast from washington Saturday morning
across eastern utah Saturday night and Sunday. This will bring
another dry cold front through the region.

Temperatures trend warmer through tomorrow, cooler Friday, warmer
Saturday then much cooler Sunday. Tomorrow will be the driest day
with single digit rh across most of the state, rising a bit
Friday across the north, little changed Saturday and a bit higher
Sunday.

No convection expected today, with isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms primarily across the northern mountains
Thursday through the weekend.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... None.

Wy... None.

Public... 10 seaman schoening
aviation... Jeglum
fire weather... 10
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion
visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 4HV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----------Calm----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
1 day ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
2 days ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm--CalmSW8----N7----Calm------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Junction, CO
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.