Thursday, April26, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Hanksville, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday April 26, 2018 7:28 AM MDT (13:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 3:58AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanksville, UT
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location: 38.52, -110.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 260950
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
350 am mdt Thu apr 26 2018

Synopsis High pressure will bring very warm temperatures to the
area through Friday. A low pressure system over the eastern
pacific will move east into the great basin Sunday, then track
slowly through the region early next week.

Short term (through 12z Sunday)
Antecedent conditions...

extreme drought is occurring from provo south to cedar city and
to the southeast. Severe drought is occurring surrounding the
extreme drought, in areas south of ogden and duchesne to the
arizona border. Drought conditions scale down to abnormally dry
along the idaho and wyoming border.

Big picture...

during the past 5 days, the pattern over the pacific has become
quite amplified, resulting in a cutoff low over the eastern

Water vapor satellite shows a ridge from the southern pacific into
the great basin and pacific northwest. Noticed copious pacific
moisture being drawn in from the combined circulations of the
aforementioned ridge and cutoff low. 400-250 mdcars wind
observations show a cyclonic 125-165kt jet over the northeast
pacific, becoming anticyclonic over western canada. Meanwhile a
cyclonic 75-110kt jet demarks the upper level circulation of the
cutoff low over the eastern pacific.

Local observations and trends...

precipitable water values range from 0.10"-0.15" northern
mountains to most locations to 0.33"-0.45" southern and central

A 1026mb surface anticyclone is centered across north central
wyoming, with a 1009 surface cyclone near las vegas. This results
in a 8mb northerly pressure gradient, supporting gusty winds on
the ridges.

24 hour trends: 10-20f warmer across much of utah. Dewpoint
depressions have increased (dried) 5-15f.


a ridge of high pressure will support warm and sunny conditions
for much of the day. There could be some isolated high-based
showers this afternoon across the higher terrain of southwest
utah, closer to deeper moisture (and some slight destabilization)
and the approaching warm frontal boundary.

On the slow approach of the cutoff low into the west coast
Friday, the warm front will begin to lift north. Expecting an
increase in southerly flow Friday through Saturday responding to
the increasing southeasterly pressure gradient, pressure falls
and the height falls to our west. Warmer conditions are expected,
though mid and high cloud cover could result in temperatures not
reaching forecast highs at some locations during this period.

Overnight lows will be mild due to the combination of gusty winds
and increasing clouds.

The increase in cloud cover is due to the influx of moisture from
a frontal band entering the gulf of mexico. As mid level moisture
increases Friday and Saturday, so will instability and the chance
for seeing isolated to scattered convection. 700-500mb lapse rates
Friday and Saturday are quite steep also supporting convection.

The magnitude of pre-frontal wind gusts is the difficult part of
this forecast. A blend of model guidance yielded light to
moderate wind, compared to met mav mex guidance which was
substantially higher. Went with a compromise between these
solutions (as clouds may in fact impact magnitude of gusts),
resulting in the forecast winds being trended higher.

The cold front associated with the approaching closed low should
enter utah late Saturday afternoon, crossing all of the area
except southeast utah by Sunday morning. The boundary currently
looks dynamic with good to excellent 850-500mb frontogenesis and
fn vector convergence especially 21z Saturday through 06z Sunday.

This may support a frontal band of convection across northwest and
west central utah as saturated equivalent potential vorticity also
shows an environment favorable for banded precipitation.

Long term (after 12z Sunday)
Global models indicate overall unsettled weather Sunday through
Wednesday due to a series of pacific storm systems impacting the
forecast area. Though the main idea is the same, differences
remain with respect to the details.

By Sunday morning, ec GFS both have a cold front through the
northwestern third of utah on the front edge of a broad splitting
pacific low. The GFS pushes that boundary through all but southeast
utah by Monday morning as the main branch of the trough slides
through. In the ec, the main branch of the trough does not arrive
until Tuesday morning, so the front remains hung up over northwest
utah for most of Monday. This means that there is relatively high
confidence there will be a few showers over northern utah on Sunday
on the front edge of the boundary, with coverage increasing Monday
with increasing instability. Due to the differences in frontal
timing, there is a good deal of uncertainty with regard to the
southern extent of the precip threat on Monday. Therefore, have gone
with primarily scattered pops over northern utah with isolated pops
at best over southern utah.

Guidance is in better agreement with regard to the second storm
system. On Monday, they indicate a pacific northwest storm system
sliding south along the pacific coast, closing off over southern
california Tuesday afternoon. This system then slides across
northern arizona Tuesday night into Wednesday, with the system
taking a slightly more northeasterly track in the ec compared to the
gfs. The best precip with this system is expected to stay over
arizona, but some threat of showers exists in association with this
primarily over central and southern utah. However, there is some
indication that it will also light up the existing frontal boundary
stretching southwest to northeast over the state, keeping a threat
of precip over northern utah. Have low confidence in the precise
details of the pattern so have kept pops primarily in the isolated
to widely scattered range for now.

The trough is expected to move out Wednesday night into Thursday,
allowing high pressure to move back in for day seven and beyond.

The slc terminal will seeVFR conditions throughout the
day with clear skies. Light prevailing southeasterly winds are
expected to shift to the northwest between 18z and 20z.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... None.

Wy... None.

Short term... 10
long term aviation... Traphagan
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 4HV (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------Calm----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
1 day ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
2 days ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm--CalmSW8----N7----Calm------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralPlains    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Junction, CO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.