Wednesday, February20, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Hanksville, UT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:58PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 9:25 AM MST (16:25 UTC) Moonrise 7:37PMMoonset 8:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hanksville, UT
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location: 38.52, -110.28     debug

Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT
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Fxus65 kslc 201559
area forecast discussion
national weather service salt lake city ut
859 am mst Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis A potent winter storm will settle into the great basin
today, then remain over the region through late in the week.

Heavy snow associated with this storm will concentrate mainly across
the southern two-thirds of utah late today through early Friday.

Forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments for today's
elements. No changes to going headlines. Will monitor for possible
extension of a couple zones up north beyond noon. Will also watch
utah county for potential snow this afternoon.

Warm advection and height falls will continue to develop southward
across utah today, ahead of the next storm diving from the
pacific northwest down the west coast.

A rare and significant snow storm is expected for the arizona
border area beginning this evening and lasting into Friday

Adjusted hourly t rh curve based on latest observations and model

Previous discussion
The large-scale pattern this morning consists of a weak shortwave
ridge over utah while upstream, a trough centered over the pacnw
is tracking sse. Ahead of said trough, moisture has increased over
northern utah as warm advection strengthened over the area. This
has resulted in an area of snow across northern utah. At the
surface, pressure falls over idaho and nevada has led to a
tightening southeasterly pressure gradient across northwest
through west-central utah. As such, enhanced south southeast winds
are noted across northwest utah.

Accumulating snow across northern utah is expected to continue
impacting area roadways through the morning commute, and as such,
winter weather advisories remain in place for the northern wasatch
front and cache valley and adjacent mountains, as well as the
northwest deserts (areas favored in southwest flow). New with the
morning package was the addition of the ogden valley where
favorable southwest flow should allow that area to also do well in
terms of accumulation. Snow across northern utah should decrease
this afternoon as the warm advection weakens and the upstream trough
dives south.

The trough is progged to end up closing off over nevada tonight.

Snow is expected to begin developing across southern utah this
afternoon as an embedded vort MAX dives into southern nevada and
towards southwest utah while warm advection strengthens in
southwesterly flow aloft. The upper low will remain over nevada into
tomorrow before filling and tracking east on Friday. Until that
time, a moist upslope south to southeast flow will persist for an
extended period of time as a 700mb circulation tracks slowly east
along the utah arizona border. As a result, expect significant
accumulations across southern through east-central utah. Even utah's
dixie is expected to see significant (for that area) accumulations.

Winter weather warnings and advisories are in place for the most
impacted areas. Additional areas may eventually need to be added
later depending on how the storm evolves. For example, the western
uinta basin could potentially see siwill continue to gnificant
accumulations tomorrow afternoon night as moisture wraps around
the low in an easterly upslope flow. West-central utah may also
see significant accumulations particularly along the i-15 corridor
late tomorrow afternoon into Friday with the northerly flow on
the backside of the trough as it starts to exit east. Otherwise,
most of the wasatch front area is expected to see little in the
way of snow tonight through the duration of the storm due to an
easterly downslope flow tonight through tomorrow night.

Besides the snow, another thing to watch will be canyon winds along
the wasatch front due to said easterly flow. An easterly pressure
gradient will set up across the wasatch tonight. However, with weak
flow aloft, these winds will likely remain localized to the canyons
with gusts in the 30-40mph range. The gradient is progged to remain
more or less in place through tomorrow night. However, the latest
models are now indicating stronger 7will continue to 00mb flow
(20-30kt) tomorrow through tomorrow night with cold advection
(though not particularly strong) across the terrain. If this trend
continues, there will be some potential for stronger and more
widespread downslope winds.

The storm will finally exit the area by Friday evening. After that,
the pattern will start to trend more zonal for the weekend. On
Saturday, warm advection across northern utah ahead of a weak, low-
amplitude trough passing by to the north could allow some snow to
develop near the idaho border.

An active pattern will continue with a couple of systems
impacting the forecast area through the middle of next week.

Global models are in general agreement with a broad trough of low
pressure from the pacific northwest through the northern rockies
early in the period, reinforcing cold air over the region. A
glancing upper level disturbance rotating through the base of the
trough could produce some light snow activity over the northern
portions of the forecast area Saturday night and Sunday. The primary
change to this forecast period was to scale back on precipitation
potential for central utah, as bulk of upper level support remains
to the north of the forecast area.

Global models all indicate a strong shortwave will swing through the
northern great basin Sunday night and Monday, though with some
differences. In general, the GFS indicates a compromise between
more shallow solution of ECMWF and deeper canadian solution.

Experimental fv3 GFS favors the canadian solution. With ample
moisture and strong upward lift generated by shortwave and
significant jet energy, boosted chances for precipitation.

Global models all indicate some mid level ridging for Tuesday and
Wednesday, with significant warming of temperatures aloft. Models,
in particular gfs, may be a bit aggressive in generating qpf, though
will hold on to chance wording for northern portions of forecast
area, with precipitation type in valleys looking to be a mix of rain
and snow.

Vfr conditions will continue through at least the early afternoon
at the slc terminal with ceilings in the 4 to 6kft agl vicinity.

Breezy south winds will subside through the afternoon. Snow to the
north should eventually reach the terminal by 21z-23z with MVFR
visbys CIGS possible, although there is a 40% chance conditions
remainVFR. Another period of MVFR is possible tonight starting
around 12z as a band of snow pushes up from the south.

Slc watches warnings advisories
Ut... Winter storm warning from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 am mst Friday
for utz012-013-016-019>021.

Winter weather advisory until noon mst today for utz001-002-

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 4 pm mst Friday for

Winter storm warning from noon today to 4 pm mst Friday for

Winter weather advisory from noon today to 9 am mst Friday for

Wy... None.

Public... 10 cheng barjenbruch
aviation... Van cleave
for more information from noaa's national weather service visit...

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity
for frequently asked questions about the area forecast discussion

http: weather.Gov saltlakecity general afd_faqs.Php

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Wind History from 4HV (wind in knots)
Last 24hr----------Calm----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
1 day ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm----Calm
2 days ago----------Calm----Calm----Calm--CalmSW8----N7----Calm------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Junction, CO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.