Friday, February22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Timber Cove, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:57PM Friday February 22, 2019 8:55 AM PST (16:55 UTC) Moonrise 9:54PMMoonset 9:06AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ540 Coastal Waters From Point Arena To Point Reyes California Out To 10 Nm- 825 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Today..NW winds 5 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less...becoming 3 to 4 ft this afternoon. NW swell 6 to 9 ft at 13 seconds.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. NW swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds.
Sat..NW winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. A slight chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 6 ft at 13 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun night..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 5 ft at 12 seconds. Rain likely.
Mon..S winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 6 ft. Rain.
Tue..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft. Rain.
PZZ500 825 Am Pst Fri Feb 22 2019
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Breezy northerly winds will persist through early this morning before diminishing. Moderate northwest swell will continue into next week. Southerly winds will develop later this weekend and into early next weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Timber Cove, CA
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location: 38.52, -123.25     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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Fxus66 kmtr 221645
afdmtr
area forecast discussion
national weather service san francisco bay area
845 am pst Fri feb 22 2019

Synopsis Cool and dry weather conditions will continue across
most of the forecast area through the weekend, except for rain
chances in the north bay starting as early as Saturday night.

Rain will become likely across the north bay early next week, and
rain may shift southward across the rest of the san francisco bay
area as well. Warmer temperatures are forecast next week,
especially during the overnight hours.

Discussion As of 8:45 am pst Friday... Water vapor imagery
shows an upper level low over southern california starting to
shift east into arizona this morning, while another system is
starting to dig into the pacific northwest. As a result, dry
northerly flow aloft is prevailing across the region, with just a
few high clouds possible at time. Today will be another seasonably
cool day across the region, with temperatures similar to those of
yesterday. Weak ridging will bring a minor warming trend to the
region on Saturday, with dry conditions continuing to prevail.

Current forecast looks on track, so no updates are planned at this
time.

The next system will start to impact far northwestern california
Sunday afternoon and evening. The question is whether or not it
will stay focused on northwest california or shift south into our
north bay counties? For now, think a few light showers may be
possible late Sunday or Sunday night across our north bay counties,
with the heavier rain starting to shift southward into these
counties on Monday. There are still enough model differences that
confidence is low as to the exact area that this next moisture
plume will focus. However, this bears watching, as this could be
another significant rain producers for our northern counties.

Palmer

Previous discussion As of 3:30 am pst Friday... Overnight lows
are running somewhat warmer than previously anticipated despite a
cold, dry air mass settling into the region. Breezy northerly
winds are responsible for the discrepancy, and this is on display
particularly well at napa airport. Kapc (napa airport) is running
9 degrees warmer (45 vs 36) than this same time yesterday, despite
a dew point 14 points lower (19 vs 33), due to 16 mph winds out
of the north. On the flip side, kmry (monterey airport) is running
13 degrees cooler (35 vs 48) than the same time last night given
much lighter winds. With calm winds, radiational cooling at the
surface brings continual heat loss and cooler temperatures.

However, with even light surface winds, some turbulent mixing
occurs which blends the relatively warmer air aloft with the
cooling air near the surface, effectively reducing the heat loss
felt at the surface and keeping overnight temperatures higher than
they otherwise would be. Latest hrrr WRF show winds weakening
away from the hills between 4-8am, which should provide a few
hours of peak diurnal cooling rates. This may be sufficient in
dropping many areas into the 30s to around 40 just after sunrise.

The low pressure system responsible for the cool air mass and
recent showery activity is forecast to exit southern california
into arizona today. Weak ridging will develop in the wake of the
this system closer to home but will quickly transition into mostly
benign westerly flow for all but extreme northern california
through at least most of Saturday.

Farther north this weekend, a 535dm 500mb upper low is forecast to
gradually slide southward along the coastline of british columbia.

This feature will interact with a 0.85" tpw plume being advected
towards the west coast by a different low pressure system deeper
in the pacific ocean. As a result, wet weather is anticipated to
return to the northern periphery of the north bay sometime late
Saturday into early Sunday. The euro is the most aggressive with
bringing rain into the region, pushing light rain as far southward
as coastal san mateo county by Saturday evening. The GFS on the
other hand keeps the bulk of the moisture north of sonoma into
mendocino county through the weekend. For now, have leaned more
towards the euro output, with a slight chance to chance of rain
across the north bay on Sunday.

Models then show a higher likelihood of rain by early next week
when the aforementioned well offshore pacific low closes in on the
california coastline, while at the same time lugging along a
wetter, more expansive precipitable water plume for the nearby
storm systems to work with. Tpw values jump up as high as 1.25"
later Monday into Tuesday but the GFS and euro disagree on where
exactly this plume of moisture will be aimed. The GFS aims it
directly at the sf bay area while the euro and NAM push it
slightly farther northward into the north bay. For now, will
continue to side with the euro NAM output and the current forecast
reflects this, with the bulk of the QPF residing across sonoma,
marin, and napa counties. The heaviest rain will likely occur from
late Monday throughout the day Tuesday, with lingering showers
possible as late as Thursday morning. Storm total rain between
Monday and Wednesday from this storm system will be entirely
dependent on where the narrow band of deeper moisture is focused,
however, given the latest data we are expecting 3.5-5" in the
north bay mountains and coastal ranges, with 1.5-3.5" in the north
bay valleys. Farther south, san francisco and oakland may see up
to around an inch, while the south bay and inland east bay may see
up to around half an inch. Farther south, the monterey bay region
may only see around a quarter of an inch as the bulk of the
moisture remains farther northward. All that said, these numbers
may change significantly in favor of the sf bay area if it turns
out the GFS solution becomes favored by the other models.

In addition to rain, breezy to gusty southerly winds should be
expected. Winds are currently not expected to be as big of an
impact as with previous storm systems so far this year.

Temperatures should be relatively mild when compared to recent
days as well given the warmer, moister origin of this air mass.

Afternoon highs in the 60s to low 70s are possible by midweek
while lows will struggle to drop below the upper 40s under mostly
cloudy skies.

The region will briefly dry out late Thursday into early Friday of
next week as weak ridging develops across the southwestern conus.

Models show general agreement that a different storm system will
bring another round of rain and wind to california late next week
through next weekend. But for now, the focus will be on the
upcoming storm system set for early next week. Stay tuned.

Aviation As of 3:24 am pst Friday... For 12z tafs...VFR
conditions through the period with light to moderate winds. A few
cu build up clouds are possible this afternoon, but impacts will
be minimal. High level clouds increase on Saturday.

Vicinity of ksfo...VFR..

Sfo bridge approach... Similar to sfo.

Monterey bay terminals...VFR.

Marine As of 03:35 am pst Friday... Breezy to gusty northerly
winds will persist through early this morning before diminishing.

Moderate northwest swell will continue into next week. Southerly
winds will develop later this weekend and into early next weekend.

Mtr watches warnings advisories
Tday Sca... Pigeon pt to pt pinos 0-10 nm until 9 am
sca... Pt arena to pigeon pt 10-60 nm until 9 am
sca... Pigeon pt to pt piedras blancas 10-60 nm until 9 am
sca... Pt pinos to pt piedras blancas 0-10 nm
sca... Rough bar advisory for sf bar until 9 am
public forecast: palmer drp
aviation: mm
marine: mm
visit us at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46013 - Bodega Bay - 48NM North Northwest of San Francisco, CA 20 mi46 min NNW 9.7 G 14 54°F1018.6 hPa
ANVC1 - 9416841 - Arena Cove, CA 37 mi56 min E 6 G 7 41°F 50°F1018.6 hPa (+1.5)
PRYC1 - 9415020 - Point Reyes, CA 39 mi56 min 52°F1018.4 hPa (+1.8)
46214 - Point Reyes, CA (029) 41 mi56 min 54°F11 ft

Wind History for Arena Cove, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Santa Rosa, Santa Rosa Sonoma County Airport, CA23 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair33°F28°F85%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from STS (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW3CalmCalmSW44S8S6S6S4CalmSE3CalmN3NW3CalmSW3NW8NW13NW11NW9NW5CalmNW3N3

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Ross, California
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Fort Ross
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Fri -- 12:48 AM PST     5.73 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:46 AM PST     1.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:54 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:05 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 12:41 PM PST     5.55 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:58 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:03 PM PST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:53 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.55.75.34.33.11.91.21.11.52.53.64.75.45.5542.71.50.60.30.61.42.63.9

Tide / Current Tables for Salt Point, California Current
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Salt Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:59 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:40 AM PST     -1.19 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 06:55 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:11 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:06 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:04 AM PST     1.06 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:08 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:59 PM PST     -1.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:58 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:37 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:54 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:33 PM PST     1.09 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.6-0-0.7-1.1-1.2-1-0.6-0.10.40.91.10.90.60.1-0.6-1.1-1.3-1.1-0.8-0.30.20.71

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sacramento, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.