Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Bethany, DE

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Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 7:51PM Sunday August 19, 2018 10:06 AM EDT (14:06 UTC) Moonrise 2:00PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 56% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 930 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Rest of today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Scattered showers. Scattered tstms early this afternoon, then isolated tstms late.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. A chance of tstms until early morning.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt early in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Tue..SE winds around 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..W winds around 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 930 Am Edt Sun Aug 19 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will continue to push south of delmarva this morning before becoming nearly stationary over the mid- atlantic. SEveral waves of low pressure will slide along this boundary before it lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday. A strong cold front then passes through the region on Wednesday. High pressure builds in from the north and west from Thursday through the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Bethany, DE
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location: 38.53, -75     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191340
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
940 am edt Sun aug 19 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to push south of DELMARVA this
morning before becoming nearly stationary over the mid-
atlantic. Several waves of low pressure will slide along this
boundary before it lifts north as a warm front on Tuesday. A
strong cold front then passes through the region on Wednesday.

High pressure builds in from the north and west from Thursday
through the end of the week. A cold front approaches next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Scattered showers continue to very slowly move through our
region this morning. Some showers are steadier and rainfall
amounts of up to 0.50 inches may fall. The clouds and easterly
winds are already impacting the temperatures this morning and
with little to no breaks expected through the day, temperatures
will not rise all that much across our forecast area. Adjusted
max temps down a bit to better reflect current conditions and
trends.

The cold front has finally pushed south of the area, and will
stall to our south today. A couple of waves of low pressure are
expected to develop along the front, but will remain south of
the area as they move northeast ward along the boundary. Several
short wave vorticity impulses will move across the area through
the day, which will lead to the development of showers through
the day. These waves may provide enough lift to allow for some
convection to form but chances for thunder look marginal at best
so we only mention an isolated thunderstorm through today.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Monday
The frontal boundary will remain stalled out to our south
overnight tonight. While there could be a few scattered showers
this evening across the area as the last little bit of vorticity
moves east of the area, the precipitation is expected to end
overnight as slight ridging briefly develops. It will remain
cloudy overnight, so fog is not expected to become a problem.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Stationary boundary remains across the mid-atlantic on Monday,
and several weak mid-level troughs and shortwaves will pass
through the region during the day. Conditions at the surface
will be fairly stable due to high pressure encompassing much of
the east coast. Will cap pops at slight chance, mainly for
southern and eastern zones as weak low pressure develops at the
base of the trough along the stalled boundary and moves offshore
Monday night. It will be relatively cool with highs on the
upper 70s and low 80s, and surface dewpoints will generally be
in the mid 60s.

Conditions then become unsettled for the mid-week period. The
stationary front returns north as a warm front on Tuesday, and
temperatures creep back up a bit, and dewpoints climb back up
into the low 70s. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible
with the passage of that front, but then the return of the heat
and humidity will set the stage for a round of convection
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Low pressure over the great lakes Tuesday morning will lift to
the north and east into eastern canada. This will drag a cold
front through the region late Tuesday night and Wednesday
morning. With pwats climbing back over 2 inches, there is the
potential for heavy rain and flooding with any convection that
develops.

The cold front should be through most of the western half of
the forecast area by Wednesday morning, and then through the
rest of the region Wednesday afternoon.

Behind the front, a much cooler and dryer airmass spreads into
the region to close out the work week as high pressure builds in
from the north and west. A much more pleasant airmass builds
south as dewpoints fall back into the 50s, combined with highs
in the upper 70s and low 80s.

Dry weather through the end of the work week as high pressure
builds into the region and moves offshore. A cold front
approaches for next weekend, brining a chance for precip by
Sunday.

Aviation 14z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Mainly MVFR conditions prevail at the terminals this
morning. Some lower ceilings are moving through with scattered
showers and may lower conditions to ifr for a period of time
this morning but a return to mostly MVFR conditions is likely
to occur. Scattered showers will remain possible through the
day.

Winds will remain out of the northeast 5-10 knots. A few gusts
around 15 to 20 knots will be possible through this afternoon.

Tonight... MVFR will continue into this evening across most of
the TAF sites. However abe and rdg may return toVFR briefly,
before lowering back to MVFR overnight. The remainder of the taf
sites are expected to lower to ifr through the night if they
haven't lowered to ifr during the day.

Wind will remain northeast 5-10 knots.

Outlook...

Monday... GenerallyVFR conditions. Some showers are possible at
kmiv kacy late in the day and at night with temporary sub-vfr
conditions. East winds 10 kt or less.

Tuesday through Wednesday morning... Overall,VFR, but showers
and thunderstorms mainly Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night
will result in MVFR or lower conditions. SE winds 10 kt or
less, becoming SW by Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon...VFR. Winds shifting NW 10-15 kt with
gusts up to 20 kt.

Thursday...VFR conditions with light northwesterly winds.

Marine
A small craft advisory remains in effect for little egg inlet
northward as winds and waves will continue to increase through
this morning. A small craft advisory has now been issued from
cape may to little egg inlet as the winds and waves increase
later this afternoon.

The advisory will remain in effect through tonight as winds
will remain close to 25 knots, and seas remain around 5 feet.

For delaware bay and the atlantic coastal waters adjacent to
delaware, conditions are expected tor remain below advisory
levels with winds 20 knots or lower and seas 4 feet or lower.

Outlook...

Monday... SCA lingers on the nj ocean waters through much of the
day, and sub-sca conditions on the de ocean waters and de bay.

Tuesday through Tuesday night... Sub-sca conditions. Showers and
thunderstorms with strong winds and reduced vsbys in heavy
rain.

Wednesday... Conditions may build to SCA levels Wednesday
afternoon behind a strong cold front.

Thursday... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Rip currents...

we have issued a moderate risk for the formation of dangerous
rip currents for the new jersey coast. Winds will continue to
increase through the day, and seas build to 4-5 feet.

The risk is expected to be low for the delaware beaches as the
winds and waves should be lower across the southern portions of
the area.

Climate
A brief look at august so far at philadelphia:
through august 18, average daily temperatures are 3.2 degrees
above normal.

Looking a little closer, the average high temperature is 2.6
degrees above normal, while the average low temperature is 3.8
degrees above normal. So with the warmth during the day, there
has not been much in the way of relief at night.

Although it has been quite warm, high temperature records have
not been threatened, falling some 10 to 15 degrees shy of a
given record.

In addition, the average daily dewpoint has been 5.4 degrees
above the normal daily dewpoint for august so far, so if it has
felt more humid than normal, the numbers bear that out!

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt
Monday for anz452-453.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt Monday for anz450-451.

Synopsis... Mps
near term... Robertson meola
short term... Robertson
long term... Mps
aviation... Robertson meola mps
marine... Robertson mps
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 15 mi43 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 80°F 73°F1012.6 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 16 mi77 min Calm G 0 80°F 78°F3 ft1012.1 hPa (+1.6)
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 19 mi43 min E 8.9 G 11 76°F 77°F1012.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 30 mi37 min E 6 G 8.9 76°F 77°F1011.8 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 32 mi43 min NE 12 G 14 76°F 1012.8 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi97 min N 4.1 72°F 1012 hPa71°F

Wind History for Ocean City Inlet, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD17 mi74 minNW 610.00 miFair80°F75°F85%1012 hPa
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE22 mi73 minNNW 310.00 miOvercast77°F73°F90%1012.1 hPa

Wind History from OXB (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Fenwick Island Light, Delaware
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Fenwick Island Light
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Sun -- 12:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:33 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:47 AM EDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 03:17 PM EDT     3.79 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:49 PM EDT     1.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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22.6332.82.41.91.30.80.70.91.42.12.83.53.83.73.532.31.61.111.2

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
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Sun -- 12:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:53 AM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:52 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 06:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:20 AM EDT     -0.92 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 02:12 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:07 PM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.810.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.7-0.9-0.8-0.5-0.10.40.91.21.10.80.3-0.2-0.6-0.8-1-0.9-0.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.