Sunrise 5:58 AM   Sunset 8:12 PM Moonrise 7:32 AM   Moonset 11:29 PM

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ANZ536 Tidal Potomac From Indian Head To Cobb Island- 435 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Rest of the overnight - N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Scattered sprinkles. Today - NE winds around 5 kt - .becoming se late. Waves 1 ft. Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less. Sun - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of tstms.Wed - NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 435 Am Edt Sat May 11 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a low pressure system will pass to the north late today into Sunday. High pressure will move overhead Sunday night and Monday before the next low pressure system approaches from the west Tuesday into Wednesday. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Monday afternoon through Wednesday night.

FXUS61 KLWX 110757 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 357 AM EDT Sat May 11 2024

SYNOPSIS
Low pressure sliding by to our north today will drag a cold front through the region later this afternoon into this evening.
Drier conditions return with brief high pressure Sunday into early next week. High pressure pushes offshore by the middle of next week leading to a return of warmer temperatures and unsettled conditions.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Starting to see a decrease in drizzle activity across the region and even some gradually clearing of low-level clouds in spots this morning. Drier conditions will continue to take hold into the early afternoon.

An upper trough and associated surface cold front look to approach the area later today into this evening, bringing widespread showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms. Given the timing being later in the afternoon/evening, best chance for thunderstorms seems to be areas west of the I-95 corridor, especially west of the Blue Ridge mid-afternoon. Temperatures will reach the middle 60s this afternoon.

Showers will slowly depart to the east overnight, with most of the region returning to dry conditions by Sunday morning. Low temperatures generally reach the upper 40s to low 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
The aforementioned cold front will move east of the area Sunday morning, though some residual moisture on the backside of the broad low could bring some on-and-off showers to the eastern half of the area through Sunday afternoon.

Conditions dry out Sunday evening as high pressure builds in from the west. Highs will generally be in the 60s, with some low 70s possible in Central VA Sunday afternoon. Overnight lows mostly in the 40s to low 50s.

For Monday, expect dry conditions with high temperatures well into the 70s. A slight chance of showers will return that evening ahead of the next approaching trough, but timing is still a bit uncertain with that. If anything, model guidance seems to be a touch slower, so rain may not even arrive until Tuesday. Overall, would plan for a very average day for mid-May with pretty low humidity as well.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Unsettled weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday as a trough moves eastward from the mid Mississippi Valley. Some thunderstorms are possible during this time, but overall instability appears to be limited. The most widespread rain chances will occur Tuesday afternoon and evening as lift and moisture flux maximize ahead of the low's approach. A period of moderate to locally heavy rain is possible, but richer moisture will likely remain south of the area.
Ultimately the low is forecast to move to the east Wednesday, but there appears to be plenty of wrap around moisture that will keep shower chances high through the day. Despite the clouds and precip, high temperatures will be near or slightly below normal.

Thursday still appears to be a relative break with seasonable temperatures as ridging briefly builds overhead. However, this could change as model spread increases in the upper level pattern. Despite this divergence, there is enough agreement on a trough emerging toward the eastern US on Friday that rain chances will increase again.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
CIGs are beginning to improve this morning, which should continue today. Light north winds this morning quickly shift to south by late morning.Shower and thunderstorms are possible again this afternoon/evening as a cold front approaches the region. Best chance for thunder will be at MRB, IAD, CHO, and DCA. BWI and MTN may be impacted later into the evening, when instability will have decreased.

Light north winds this morning quickly shift to south by late morning.

A cold front sweeps through early Sunday, with winds shifting to northwest behind the front. Behind this, high pressure returns with VFR conditions expected through Monday.

Sub-VFR ceilings along with showers and a few thunderstorms are possible Tuesday and Wednesday as a low pressure system moves slowly across the area.

MARINE
Winds will gradually taper off this morning across the Chesapeake Bay. After that, winds will generally be AOB 10 kts today, at least until showers and thunderstorms potentially impact the waters again this evening into tonight. Not looking at any strong storms at this point, but can't rule out some brief sub-SMW level wind gusts if a storm does manage to get somewhat organized.

Winds will increase for a brief period tonight just ahead of the approaching cold front. Have issued an SCA between 00z and 08z for this brief uptick in winds, which should mainly be over the Chesapeake Bay.

Winds may increase yet again on Sunday afternoon as northwest winds increase behind a cold front that crosses the local waters Sunday morning. This could necessitate an SCA, but not confident enough this far out at this point.

Winds will then taper off Sunday night through Monday as high pressure returns to the region.

Advisories may be needed Tuesday and Tuesday night in southerly flow as a low pressure system approaches. The low will pass to the east Wednesday, and additional advisories may be needed in northwest flow Wednesday and Wednesday night. A few thunderstorms are possible both Tuesday and Wednesday as well.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
While flow is generally out of the N to NNE, tidal anomalies have remained elevated overnight. In fact, many spots continue to increase. This has lead to several Coastal Flood Advisories being issued up the Chesapeake Bay and Potomac. Straits Point even looks to hit moderate with this high tide cycle. Expect elevated tidal anomalies to continue into the next high tide cycle or two as winds shift quickly out of the S/SE this afternoon ahead of a cold front.

Tidal anomalies should begin to drop off by Sunday when offshore northwest flow kicks in across the area.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for DCZ001.
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon EDT today for MDZ011.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for MDZ014.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for MDZ016- 018.
Coastal Flood Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for MDZ017.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for VAZ057.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ530>533-538>541.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ530>534-538-543.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for ANZ534- 537-542-543.

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Deep Point
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:02 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:54 AM EDT     2.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:00 PM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:39 PM EDT     1.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Maryland, Tide feet

Glymont
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:19 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:04 PM EDT     1.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Glymont, Maryland, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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