Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 4:47PM Monday November 20, 2017 12:27 PM EST (17:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 6:38PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 848 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 1 pm est this afternoon...
Today..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Mainly in sw swell with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Tue night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft until early morning, then 2 ft or less. Mainly in S swell with a dominant period of 11 seconds. A chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely late.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ400 848 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure over the southern mississippi river valley will build east, then move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight. A cold front will approach Tuesday night and pass through the area on Wednesday. At the same time, low pressure over the southeast portion of the country will approach the mid-atlantic and move out to sea. High pressure will build through the area by the end of the work week. A cold front is expected to pass through on Saturday, with high pressure gradually building east early next week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201422
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
922 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the southern mississippi river valley will build
east, then move off the mid-atlantic coast tonight. A cold front
will approach Tuesday night and pass through the area on Wednesday.

At the same time, low pressure over the southeast portion of the
country will approach the mid- atlantic and move out to sea. High
pressure will build through the area by the end of the work week. A
cold front is expected to pass through on Saturday, with high
pressure gradually building east early next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Flurries are gradually diminishing across the higher terrain and
this trend will continue through late morning. As the diurnal
boundary layer becomes better established, GOES 16 preliminary
non-operational satellite imagery is already indicating the
expansion of low cloudiness across the higher terrain. NAM nest
model soundings are also showing this trend, so increased sky
cover across the higher terrain of northern nj and eastern pa
today. Temperatures will be several degrees below normal today
with westerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The surface high will progress offshore to our south tonight, and
midlevel flow will become more southwesterly as a vort MAX digs
southeastward into the upper midwest by 12z Tuesday. Low-level warm-
air advection should be in full swing by the overnight hours, and
this will prevent much of a fall in temperatures, despite the
lighter winds and mostly clear skies expected.

Once again, statistical guidance is in good agreement regarding
temperatures, so a blend was used for lows. Generally expecting
readings around average. Temperatures may actually flatline
relatively early in the night as warm-air advection increases via
increasingly more favorable low-level trajectories.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
High pressure over the mid-atlantic is expected to move off the mid-
atlantic coast on Tuesday. Return flow sets up, and highs on Tuesday
will be about 3-5 degrees above normal, topping off in the 40s in
the poconos, otherwise in the low to mid 50s north and west of i-95,
and near 60s in the DELMARVA and southern nj. S to SW winds increase
Tuesday afternoon to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Low pressure is expected to develop over the gulf coast on Tuesday,
move off the southeast u.S. Coast Tuesday night, then approach the
mid-atlantic coast before moving out to sea on Wednesday. A cold
front will pass through the region Wednesday afternoon. Based on
latest model guidance, will continue a swath of likely pops across
southern de and southeast nj, and chance pops for most areas south
and east of the fall line. Cooler temps will move into the poconos
Wednesday afternoon, but stronger CAA will not get underway until
Wednesday night.

Chilly high pressure builds through the region thanksgiving day
with temperatures 6-8 degrees below normal. Highs top off in
the mid and upper 30s in the poconos, otherwise in the low to
mid 40s.

High pressure reestablishes itself over the area Friday with
highs a few degrees warmer than Thursday.

Low pressure passing well north of the region will drag a cold
front through the region on Saturday, and then low pressure remains
over eastern canada through next weekend even as surface high
pressure begins building in from the west. Unsettled weather
possible.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR with west winds increasing to 10 to 15 kts with gusts to
25 kts. Confidence above average.

Tonight...VFR with west winds decreasing quickly after sunset and
likely becoming southwesterly with time. Speeds generally below 10
kts. Confidence above average.

Outlook...

Tuesday...VFR. SW winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt Tuesday
afternoon.

Tuesday night and Wednesday... MainlyVFR. Rain possible south
and east of i-95 Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with
MVFR or lower conditions. SW winds 5-10 kt become NW Wednesday
afternoon and increase to 10-20 kt.

Wednesday night and Thursday...VFR. NW winds gradually
diminishing. A storm system is currently expected to remain
offshore. Forecast confidence: medium to high.

Friday...VFR. NW winds 5-10 kt.

Saturday...VFR early... Then MVFR or lower conditions possible in
rain showers later in the day. SW winds 10-15 kt.

Marine
900 am update: observing platforms, including brandywine shoal
light in the lower delaware bay, indicated wind gusts below
gale force as of around 715 am with a continued downward trend
at this time. Model guidance, including the hrrr and rap, are
in agreement with this trend as well.

Trend with the winds will be downward today, but small craft
advisory conditions will continue through the morning for
delaware bay and the delaware coastal waters and through much of
the day off the new jersey coast.

There will likely be a brief lull in winds off the new jersey coast
late this afternoon and this evening before southwest winds pick up
again overnight. For this reason, kept the small craft advisory
going through Monday night.

Outlook...

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Brief lull in SCA conditions through
Tuesday morning. Otherwise, 25-30 kt wind gusts, primarily on the
ocean waters, may possibly over lower de bay Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday... Lull in SCA conditions possible Wednesday morning.

Otherwise, winds shift to the NW and increase to 15-20 kt with
25-30 kt gusts.

Thursday through Saturday... Sub-sca conditions expected.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Tuesday for anz450>453.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est this afternoon for anz430-
431-454-455.

Synopsis... Miketta
near term... Cms franck
short term... Cms
long term... Miketta
aviation... Cms miketta
marine... Cms franck miketta


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi46 min WNW 15 G 21 44°F 51°F1021 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi46 min WNW 13 G 16 46°F 55°F1022 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi38 min W 14 G 16 45°F 59°F3 ft1021.6 hPa (+0.0)29°F
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi46 min WNW 16 G 21 43°F 1021.3 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi40 min NW 18 G 22 44°F 48°F1020.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi58 min W 6 45°F 1021 hPa23°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi40 min 47°F 50°F1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Last
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NW30
NW27
G33
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NW23
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G29
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W8
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G14
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G27
NW24
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S6
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G17
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G23
SW8
G14
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G20
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G21
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G24
SW10
G18
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G18
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NW29
G36
NW26
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G31
2 days
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NW17
G22
NW12
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NW11
W4
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SW7
G13
S6
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi34 minWNW 12 G 1710.00 miFair47°F24°F41%1021.7 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi35 minW 12 G 2010.00 miFair47°F27°F46%1021.8 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi34 minWNW 1110.00 miFair46°F24°F42%1022.2 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
G27
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W8W6W5W5W4W3W5W9
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NW85NW4NW6NW3NW8W12
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1 day agoS13SW15
G22
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S12S13S14S15
G21
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G33
SW24
G31
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G34
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W12
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G32
2 days agoNW9
G20
W7NW7W7W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S3S6S9SW11SW15
G21
S15
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:46 AM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:23 AM EST     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:22 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:38 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:46 PM EST     0.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.50.30.20.100.20.40.70.9110.90.70.50.30.1-000.20.50.70.8

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:49 AM EST     -1.14 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:28 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:48 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EST     1.46 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:48 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:20 PM EST     -1.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:43 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:27 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:37 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:14 PM EST     1.17 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:13 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.8-1-1.1-0.9-0.30.30.91.41.41.10.6-0.1-0.7-1.1-1.4-1.3-0.9-0.30.30.91.21.10.70.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.