Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Long Neck, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 6:20PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:53 PM EDT (02:53 UTC) Moonrise 2:30PMMoonset 12:05AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 837 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.gale watch in effect from Friday evening through late Friday night...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft early this evening, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the E with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 ft or less, then around 3 ft late. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 6 seconds. Showers likely until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 837 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. High pressure centered just to our southwest tonight will move off the mid-atlantic coast on Friday. Deepening low pressure over southeast canada will pull a cold front through the area on Saturday. High pressure will then build in from the west on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front is forecast to cross the area on Tuesday, followed again by high pressure on Wednesday and Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Long Neck, DE
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location: 38.58, -75.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190042
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
842 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure centered just to our southwest tonight will move off
the mid-atlantic coast on Friday. Deepening low pressure over
southeast canada will pull a cold front through the area on
Saturday. High pressure will then build in from the west on
Sunday and Monday. Another cold front is forecast to cross the
area on Tuesday, followed again by high pressure on Wednesday
and Thursday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
No significant changes to the forecast. Temperatures are
dropping off fairly quickly in outlying areas, but should level
out to previously forecasted lows.

A cold night on tap with freeze warnings and frost advisories in
effect for the entire region, with the exception of the
immediate coastal zones.

As an upper-level trough continues to lift out of the northeast
tonight, some weak ridging is expected to arrive from the west
overnight. This will allow surface high pressure to build much
closer to our area, although its center looks to be over
virginia toward daybreak. This allows a bit of a pressure
gradient to remain over our area, however the flow is weaker and
with the cold air advection waning and becoming warm air
advection aloft through the night, the winds are expected to
decouple across much of the area. The airmass continues to be
rather dry and a mainly clear sky is expected. A lack of clouds,
a dry airmass and light to calm winds will set the stage for
efficient radiational cooling through the night despite some
warming aloft. We went with some of the colder guidance,
especially for the new jersey pine barrens for example. It is
here where some temperatures will probably get to or slightly
below freezing, however the areal coverage of this is less
certain therefore held onto the frost advisory.

As for the rest of the area, opted to expand the freeze warning
to now include upper montgomery county and berks county. The
freeze warning elsewhere is unchanged. The frost advisory was
expanded elsewhere including delaware and philadelphia counties,
as outside of the urban centers these two counties do have
several spots that radiate well. We did leave out the immediate
coastal zones though given the influence of the adjacent milder
waters. The typical areas that tend to decouple faster in the
evening will experience a quicker temperature drop, then all
areas will turn much colder overnight and especially closer to
daybreak.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
As a weak ridge slips offshore through midday, surface high
pressure will also shift to our southeast. This will result in a
return flow and therefore southwesterly flow will kick in. A
cold start to the day across the region, however given low-level
warm air advection through the day and sunshine will boost
temperatures well into the 50s and even lower 60s for much of
the area. As the boundary layer warms, a southwest breeze will
increase with a little bit of afternoon gustiness possible.

The next system will be amplifying across the great lakes
region through the day Friday, and with warm air advection ahead
of it some high level clouds should start to increase mainly
later in the day. Overall though, plenty of sunshine should be
the rule for the day on Friday. High temperatures are mainly a
blend of continuity and multi- model guidance.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Friday night through Sunday... A deep progressive upper trough will
be pushing eastward across the great lakes by the beginning of the
period. Associated low pressure will move slowly eastward across
southeastern canada send a cold front through our area by late
Saturday. Isolated to scattered showers along with increasing cloud
cover and slightly above average temps will be the story late Friday
through Saturday night before the front passes. There may be a few
lingering showers overnight Saturday as well. The colder air in the
wake of this front will make for a chilly day Sunday with highs
about 15 degrees below normal along with breezy but mostly clear
conditions.

Sunday night though Thursday... Mostly benign weather is expected
during this time with westerly flow prevailing aloft and continental
airmass in place across most of the mid-atlantic region. A trough
will be pushing offshore by Monday as high pressure slides eastward
across the mid-atlantic region from the ohio valley offshore to the
western atlantic. Another trough appears to move in by Tuesday, but
guidance differs in the timing, strength, and placement of this
feature. Nevertheless, low pressure will likely result across the
great lakes new england region and push a weak cold front through
our area on Tuesday. Without sufficient return moisture flow, only
expecting a few isolated showers possible around the poconos during
this time with partly to mostly cloudy skies elsewhere. As this
system pushes east, more cool and dry continental air is ushered in
behind the front as high pressure builds from the northwest
Wednesday into Thursday. Temps will remain 5-10 degrees below normal
during this period, with the warmest day being Tuesday ahead of the
cold front.

Aviation 01z Friday through Tuesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR. Lgt vrb to nearly calm winds.

Friday...VFR with some afternoon high clouds. Light and
variable to calm winds, becoming southwest 8-12 knots from about
late morning on.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday... MainlyVFR conditions, but
occasional sub-vfr possible with scattered showers. West winds a
bit gusty on Saturday.

Sat night and Sunday...VFR. Gusty northwest winds on Sunday.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR conditions expected.

Marine
Nw winds 15-20 kt or so on the ocean waters will diminish
tonight to 10-15 kt. W winds become SW and increase to 15-20 kt
late Friday afternoon.

A gale watch is now in effect for the ocean waters Friday night,
but do not think widespread gales will be in effect for the
entire night, most likely for a 4-6 hour period starting around
midnight. A small craft advisory is now in effect for de bay for
Friday night.

Outlook...

Saturday... At least SCA conditions are expected. A few gale
force gusts are possible. Showers.

Sat night thru Sun night... SCA conditions expected. Gale
conditions possible Sat night into Sunday. Fair.

Monday Monday night... Sub-sca. Fair.

Tuesday... SCA conditions possible. Fair.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for paz054-055-
060>062-103-105.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for paz070-071-101-
102-104-106.

Nj... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for njz001-007>010.

Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for njz012-013-
015>023-027.

De... Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for dez001>003.

Md... Frost advisory from 1 am to 9 am edt Friday for mdz008-012-015-
019-020.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday evening through late Friday night for
anz450>455.

Small craft advisory from 6 pm Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz430-431.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Gorse mps
short term... Gorse
long term... Amc o'hara staarmann
aviation... Amc gorse mps
marine... Amc gorse mps


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 14 mi53 min W 6 G 7 49°F 62°F1028.9 hPa (+0.0)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 18 mi53 min W 2.9 G 6 51°F 68°F1030 hPa (+0.4)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 26 mi63 min 16 G 19 68°F3 ft1029.1 hPa (+0.5)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 28 mi53 min NNW 8 G 15 56°F 1029.1 hPa (+0.0)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 29 mi53 min N 5.1 G 7 53°F 60°F1028.3 hPa (+0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 38 mi143 min WNW 1 42°F 1029 hPa39°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 48 mi53 min 50°F 65°F1030.3 hPa (+0.0)

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE13 mi59 minN 010.00 miFair43°F37°F82%1029.3 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD19 mi60 minN 010.00 miFair40°F37°F89%1029.6 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD24 mi59 minSW 310.00 miFair41°F39°F93%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW3N34CalmN7N6N5CalmSW3W45N9
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CalmW8NW8--NW4NW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW4Calm--SW3CalmCalmS4SW3CalmCalmNW6NW7NW8W10
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N4N6N6N4N4W4N35SW5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Oak Orchard, Delaware
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Oak Orchard
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Thu -- 12:56 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:23 AM EDT     0.76 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:18 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:41 PM EDT     0.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.20.30.40.50.70.70.70.70.60.50.40.30.20.30.40.60.70.80.90.80.70.50.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 02:37 AM EDT     0.73 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:50 AM EDT     -0.71 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 11:27 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.96 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 03:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:02 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:36 PM EDT     -0.93 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.40.70.70.50.2-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.7-0.5-0.20.20.60.910.80.50-0.4-0.7-0.9-0.9-0.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.