Wednesday, December12, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Winchester, MO

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 4:42PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 10:03 AM CST (16:03 UTC) Moonrise 11:07AMMoonset 9:39PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Winchester, MO
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location: 38.58, -90.53     debug

Area Discussion for - St. Louis, MO
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Fxus63 klsx 121209
area forecast discussion... Updated aviation
national weather service saint louis mo
609 am cst Wed dec 12 2018

Short term (through late tonight)
issued at 347 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
a noticeable temperature gradient is expected across the lsx cwa
today. Highs will range from the mid-40s in NE mo to almost 60 in se
mo. The warmer temperatures across the southern CWA are associated
with less sky cover greater insolation, compressional warming
downstream of the ozark plateau, and warm air advection on the warm
side of a developing warm front. Dry weather is expected to persist
through the day before precipitation chances begin to increase
during mid late evening.

A strong PV anomaly will approach and then cross the rocky mountains
today tonight before swinging through north tx and progressing
towards the gulf coast states over the weekend. The induced surface
cyclogenesis ahead of this feature is expected to produce a surface
low over the tx panhandle today, and the atmospheric response to the
developing surface low will be for a warm front to strengthen today
and then lift northward through mo il tonight with the approach of
the low pressure system.

Models also depict a southwesterly low-level jet at h85 which
strengthens after 00z and impinges upon the lifting warm front. The
interaction between these features ahead of the approaching low
pressure system will produce a broad rain shield which lifts
northeastward into the lsx CWA tonight. By 12z, precipitation is
forecast to stretch from central mo through southeastern mo and
southern il. Rain will continue beyond Thu 12z (see discussion
section below).


Long term (Thursday through Tuesday)
issued at 347 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
a progressive upper flow pattern is expected to continue into early
next week, effectively keeping much of the cold air bottled up north
with a persistent infusion of pacific airmasses instead.

There is an excellent model consensus on the strong storm system
slated to affect our area from Thursday-Saturday. The vigorous
wound-up portion of the storm is expected to track through the deep
south, leaving a trof shear axis to track through our region instead
on Friday with residual deep cyclonic flow persisting into Saturday.

Lead disturbances will be our initial weather makers on Thursday as
they eject out from the wound-up closed low to our south. This will
result in an outbreak of precipitation from south to north on
Thursday morning. High probabilities for precipitation can then be
expected through Friday, with precipitation lingering in some areas
even into Saturday morning as the storm system finally pulls away to
the southeast.

There is a stronger model consensus on maintaining surface temps
above freezing at all locations until at least late Friday night,
when the system is slowly exiting anyway. This is a good thing, as
there is no cold air aloft to tap into, with a strong enough wedge
of warm air aloft to keep precipitation-types all liquid. It is
just a matter of whether it becomes freezing rain or just rain, but
with surface temps expected to cooperate, it continues to look like
a cold rain event. Sub-freezing surface temps look to make some
inroads into our forecast area late Friday night--especially for
areas well north and west of the stl metro area--but this also looks
to coincide well with the exit to the east of the precipitation.

That said, cannot fully rule out a very brief limited occurrence of
light freezing rain late on Friday night, but probabilities in this
occurrence are low and thus are not a part of the deterministic
forecast we are issuing. A much higher likelihood takeaway from
this storm will be the high QPF it should yield over portions of a 3-
day span, with 1 to 2 inches of liquid equivalent expected for most
areas, with the highest values in southeast mo.

The late week storm system is anticipated to do such a good job of
scouring out moisture in the atmosphere (around only a quarter inch
pw in the column in the wake of the storm) that subsequent shortwave
disturbances dropping down in the NW upper flow during early next
week are not expected to yield any precipitation.


Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Thursday morning)
issued at 539 am cst Wed dec 12 2018
specifics for kuin:VFR conditions are expected for at least the
first 0-3 hours, but satellite imagery depicts an elongated area
of ifr stratus on the back side of a departing upper disturbance.

This protrusion is forecast to reach northeast mo and west central
il in about 3-6 hours from TAF issuance. It's not clear whether
this area of clouds will affect kuin, but if it does, the cloud
bases should have risen slightly by the time it reaches the

Specifics for kcou:VFR conditions are expected for at least the
first 0-12 hours of the valid TAF period, but uncertainty
increases thereafter. Clouds and rain will be spreading
northeastward after 13 00z, but it will take some time for the
MVFR ceilings to reach central mo. A prolonged period of MVFR to
ifr conditions is expected after the rain begins, but the onset
may not occur until just beyond the end of the valid TAF period.

Specifics for kstl, ksus, kcps:VFR conditions are expected for at
least the first 0-12 hours of the valid TAF period. Clouds and
rain will spread northeastward after 13 00z, but MVFR ceilings
will probably not reach the st. Louis area terminals until after
13 06z. Ifr conditions are possible after 13 12z.


Lsx watches warnings advisories
Mo... None.

Il... None.

Wfo lsx

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St. Louis, Spirit Of St. Louis Airport, MO8 mi69 minW 910.00 miFair46°F30°F56%1013.4 hPa
St. Louis Lambert International Airport, MO15 mi72 minW 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F32°F56%1013.6 hPa
St. Louis Downtown Airport, IL20 mi70 minSW 610.00 miFair46°F32°F58%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from SUS (wind in knots)
Last 24hrSW11SW9W11
1 day agoSW5SW4SW6SW5W6SW7CalmS3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W10
2 days ago45NE8N7NW8N8N5N4CalmN3CalmW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmW4CalmW3W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for St. Louis, MO (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station St. Louis, MO
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.