Monday, October15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millsboro, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 6:25PM Monday October 15, 2018 6:38 AM EDT (10:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:25PMMoonset 10:19PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 618 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through late tonight...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 3 to 5 ft this afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers early, then showers likely early this morning. A chance of showers late this morning and afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt late in the evening, then becoming nw after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 6 seconds. A chance of showers early in the evening. Showers in the late evening and overnight.
Tue..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft until late afternoon, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the S with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 12 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less, then 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ400 618 Am Edt Mon Oct 15 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. A cold front will cross the region tonight followed by another cold front on Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds in for Thursday and Friday. Yet another cold front arrives on Saturday followed by high pressure for Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millsboro, DE
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location: 38.59, -75.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 151018
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
618 am edt Mon oct 15 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the region tonight followed by another cold
front on Wednesday. Strong high pressure builds in for Thursday and
Friday. Yet another cold front arrives on Saturday followed by high
pressure for Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A warm front will continue to lift across the are through the
morning hours. Light rain showers will accompany this warm front as
a short wave lifts across the area as well. Generally only a tenth
of an inch or less for most places is expected this morning. Once
the warm front lifts through the area and the initial short
wave vorticity impulse lifts to our northeast, most of the shower
activity will briefly diminish. However, this will only be temporary
as additional short waves vorticity impulses will approach the area
ahead of an advancing cold front. This should allow for showers to
develop again later this afternoon and spread across the area.

Winds are beginning the day fairly light and variable for some
places. North of the warm front, directions will be out of the east
to southeast. However, once the warm front lifts through, winds will
shift to the south to southwest and increase in speed. Winds will
likely gust 20-25 mph at times for many areas later this morning
into this afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
Scattered showers will likely be occuring ahead of the advancing
cold front across much of the area. However, a stronger, more
defined line of showers may begin to develop this evening along or
just ahead of the cold front as it approaches and moves across the
area. In fact, there is some instability forecast to develop,
especially across eastern pennsylvania, central southern new jersey,
delaware, and maryland with CAPE values forecast to reach 500 j kg.

This may be enough to lead to some isolated thunderstorms embedded
within the line of showers. Mid level winds are quite strong, so if
any updrafts build tall enough, an isolated severe gust could occur,
hence SPC has our area in a marginal risk for severe weather.

Once the front moves through the area, showers are expected to
diminish across the area with the exception of far southern new
jersey, delaware, and maryland where some showers could continue
overnight.

Behind the cold front, winds are expected to become gusty at times
for many areas. Winds could gust 20-30 mph at times, although there
will be periods when no strong gusts occur for some areas.&&

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday... The cold front moves offshore, stalling south of our area.

The front should be far enough to the south to allow weak high
pressure to nose into the area. Waves form along the stalled
boundary though and as they move along it, move along the front.

They may be able to bring some showers to our far southern areas.

Chances look pretty small will keep a mention of a shower or two in
the forecast for late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Wednesday... Another cold front will approach the region on
Wednesday. While the front is discernible on the models, there seems
to be a lack of moisture across our region as it moves through. It
looks like it will end up crossing the region mostly dry or with
just a few light showers across our northern area and bringing
colder and drier air to the area. Will keep a mention for some
showers across the northwestern areas for Wednesday
afternoon evening and dry elsewhere.

Behind the front, a strong cold pool aloft will move into our area
and we will see overnight lows drop into the 30s, with some lower
40s possible across DELMARVA and along the coast. With winds
remaining up all night, frost does not seem likely to form although
the skies will be clear and temperatures will certainly be cold
enough.

The other concern on Wednesday is the strength on the winds in the
northwesterly flow behind the front. Guidance shows that we will see
winds around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible, mainly from
the afternoon through the evening. With such strong winds, we could
reach wind advisory criteria.

Thursday and Friday... High pressure will build across the ohio
valley and into the mid-atlantic on Thursday and then shift offshore
on Friday. Dry conditions with cooler temperatures across the
region, especially on Thursday as the cold pool aloft slides across
and then to the north of the area by Friday. Highs will be cold and
will be below normal on Thursday only reaching into the upper 40s to mid
50s, with some areas only making it into the lower 40s across the
southern poconos and higher elevations on northern new jersey. As
the high starts to shift to the east on Friday, some moderating of
the temperatures should occur with highs starting to warm back into
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Friday night through Sunday... Yet another cold front will move
through the region on Saturday. The models show that there is decent
fetch from the gulf of mexico so this front doesn't look to make a
dry passage like the one on Wednesday. Precipitation will start to
move into the area on Friday night as a pre-frontal trough forms and
then continue through Saturday, with the front moving offshore
Saturday evening. A secondary front may move through late Saturday
night but with details still to far out to closely refine, wont get
too cute and just leave a slight chance of showers in the gridded
forecast through Sunday morning. Behind the secondary front, expect
a large area of high pressure to build across from the plains state
and into the mid-atlantic, drying us out and keeping us in this
cooler pattern.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday... The cold front moves offshore, stalling south of our area.

The front should be far enough to the south to allow weak high
pressure to nose into the area. Waves form along the stalled
boundary though and as they move along it, move along the front.

They may be able to bring some showers to our far southern areas.

Chances look pretty small will keep a mention of a shower or two in
the forecast for late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

Wednesday... Another cold front will approach the region on
Wednesday. While the front is discernible on the models, there seems
to be a lack of moisture across our region as it moves through. It
looks like it will end up crossing the region mostly dry or with
just a few light showers across our northern area and bringing
colder and drier air to the area. Will keep a mention for some
showers across the northwestern areas for Wednesday
afternoon evening and dry elsewhere.

Behind the front, a strong cold pool aloft will move into our area
and we will see overnight lows drop into the 30s, with some lower
40s possible across DELMARVA and along the coast. With winds
remaining up all night, frost does not seem likely to form although
the skies will be clear and temperatures will certainly be cold
enough.

The other concern on Wednesday is the strength on the winds in the
northwesterly flow behind the front. Guidance shows that we will see
winds around 20 to 30 mph with higher gusts possible, mainly from
the afternoon through the evening. With such strong winds, we could
reach wind advisory criteria.

Thursday and Friday... High pressure will build across the ohio
valley and into the mid-atlantic on Thursday and then shift offshore
on Friday. Dry conditions with cooler temperatures across the
region, especially on Thursday as the cold pool aloft slides across
and then to the north of the area by Friday. Highs will be cold and
will be below normal on Thursday only reaching into the upper 40s to mid
50s, with some areas only making it into the lower 40s across the
southern poconos and higher elevations on northern new jersey. As
the high starts to shift to the east on Friday, some moderating of
the temperatures should occur with highs starting to warm back into
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Friday night through Sunday... Yet another cold front will move
through the region on Saturday. The models show that there is decent
fetch from the gulf of mexico so this front doesn't look to make a
dry passage like the one on Wednesday. Precipitation will start to
move into the area on Friday night as a pre-frontal trough forms and
then continue through Saturday, with the front moving offshore
Saturday evening. A secondary front may move through late Saturday
night but with details still to far out to closely refine, wont get
too cute and just leave a slight chance of showers in the gridded
forecast through Sunday morning. Behind the secondary front, expect
a large area of high pressure to build across from the plains state
and into the mid-atlantic, drying us out and keeping us in this
cooler pattern.

Aviation 10z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today... Scattered showers will move across the TAF sites this
morning with MVFR conditions starting the day. A brief period of ifr
conditions are possible later this morning, before a return to MVFR
by late morning and afternoon as showers briefly taper off. A return
toVFR is possible for some areas, mainly for acy and miv.

Showers are expected to develop again this afternoon as MVFR
conditions continue for many areas.

Winds will be light out of the east to southeast this morning before
a warm front lifts across the area. Once the warm front lifts north
of the area, winds will become south to southwest and increase to
around 10 knots. Winds could gust 15-20 knots this afternoon behind
the warm front.

Tonight... Scattered showers are likely to be ongoing this evening
ahead of an approaching cold front. MVFR conditions, possiblyVFR
for some areas, are expected ahead of the front. There is a
possibility for a brief period thunderstorms this evening as the
front moves across the area. Behind the front, winds will shift to
the northwest, showers will end, andVFR conditions return. Winds
may gust 20-25 knots at times overnight.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. A slight chance for some
showers late, mainly south of kmiv kacy. Northwest winds around 5 to
10 knots. Gusts around 15 to 20 knots possible in the morning.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Very windy day expected
with west winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts of to 30 to 35
knots possible.

Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Northwest winds around 10
to 15 knots with higher gusts possible.

Friday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Southwest winds around 5 to
10 knots. Showers possible Friday night.

Marine
A small craft advisory remains across the waters for today as winds
are expected to increase and gust 25-30 knots today once a warm
front lifts across the area.

A gale warning has been issued for the lower delaware bay and
atlantic coastal waters for tonight as winds are expected to
increase to at least 35 knots behind a strong cold front.

The small craft advisory will continue through tonight for the upper
delaware bay.

There is a chance for a brief period of thunderstorms as the cold
front moves across the area.

Outlook...

Tuesday... Small craft advisory conditions are expected to end
Tuesday morning with sub-advisory conditions expected through the
remainder of the day.

Wednesday... West to northwest winds will increase on the area waters
into the afternoon. Winds around 10 to 20 knots with gusts around 30
to 40 knots. Seas will build and exceed 5 feet by Wednesday
afternoon, decreasing and potentially falling below 5 feet by late
Wednesday night early Thursday. A small craft advisory is likely
with a possibility that gale warnings might be needed.

Thursday... Gale conditions are expected end by early Thursday
morning. However, small craft conditions are expected to continue
through Thursday. Winds will start to diminish later in the day,
with gusts dropping below 25 knots by Thursday evening.

Friday... Seas may start to build and near 5 feet by Friday night.

Winds will increase late in the day Friday with gusts around 25
knots possible by Friday night. A small craft advisory may be needed
for Friday night.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz431-
450>455.

Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to 6 am edt Tuesday for
anz431-450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Tuesday for anz430.

Synopsis... Meola
near term... Robertson
short term... Robertson
long term... Meola
aviation... Robertson meola
marine... Robertson meola


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 16 mi38 min S 4.1 G 7 64°F 68°F1020.9 hPa (-1.5)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 21 mi38 min SSW 16 G 19 68°F 70°F1022 hPa (-1.1)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 29 mi38 min S 22 G 25 67°F 1020.9 hPa (-1.7)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi38 min S 8 G 14 66°F 69°F1020.5 hPa (-1.4)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 33 mi48 min 14 G 16 70°F2 ft1021.6 hPa (-1.4)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi128 min SSE 4.1 59°F 1021 hPa54°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 41 mi38 min 62°F 69°F1021.5 hPa (-1.2)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi38 min S 14 G 18 65°F 66°F1021.2 hPa (-0.9)

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE8 mi44 minS 710.00 miOvercast63°F55°F76%1021 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi44 minSSE 410.00 miOvercast61°F57°F87%1021.2 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD22 mi45 minVar 510.00 miOvercast66°F55°F70%1021.4 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmSW4SE3S5S4S3CalmE3SE3SE3SE3CalmS4S3CalmS4S3S5S6S7
1 day agoNW33N4N4N53NW8NW8
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N85N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3N3
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N95N5CalmCalmCalmW3CalmN5N3Calm3NW34NW4

Tide / Current Tables for Possum Point, Delaware
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Possum Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.88 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:51 AM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:24 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:28 PM EDT     1.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:19 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:44 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.50.70.80.90.80.70.60.40.30.20.20.30.50.70.9110.90.70.60.40.30.2

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:45 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:01 AM EDT     -0.84 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     1.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:48 PM EDT     -0.99 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:59 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.80.4-0.1-0.5-0.8-0.8-0.7-0.30.20.611.110.60.1-0.4-0.8-0.9-1-0.8-0.400.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (6,6,7,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.