Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millsboro, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 5:16PM Thursday January 24, 2019 1:25 AM EST (06:25 UTC) Moonrise 9:35PMMoonset 9:47AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Expires:201901241415;;828518 Fzus51 Kphi 240215 Cwfphi Coastal Waters Forecast National Weather Service Mount Holly Nj 915 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019 Sandy Hook Nj To Fenwick Island De To 20 Nm Offshore And Delaware Bay Anz454-455-241415- Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 915 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est Thursday...
.gale warning in effect from 6 am est Thursday through Thursday afternoon...
Rest of tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 40 kt late. Seas 7 to 10 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A slight chance of rain late this evening, then a chance of rain.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt early in the afternoon, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt late. Seas 8 to 11 ft, subsiding to 6 to 9 ft in the afternoon. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late. Seas 5 to 8 ft, subsiding to 4 to 6 ft after midnight. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 11 seconds.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Sat night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..N winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
ANZ400 915 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will pass through the great lakes and into ontario and quebec tonight. Areas of rain, some heavy, will develop late tonight and particularly tomorrow ahead of a cold frontal passage (early- mid afternoon along the coast). High pressure and cooler but drier weather builds in for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region Sunday associated with a low pressure to our north which may bring some snow showers. Another period of unsettled weather is possible early next week, but its evolution is uncertain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millsboro, DE
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location: 38.59, -75.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 240606
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
106 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will pass through the great lakes and into ontario and
quebec tonight. Areas of rain, some heavy, will develop late tonight
and particularly tomorrow ahead of a cold frontal passage later
tomorrow. High pressure and cooler but drier weather builds in
for Friday and Saturday. A cold front will cross the region
Sunday associated with a low pressure to our north which may
bring some snow showers. Another period of unsettled weather is
possible early next week, but its evolution is uncertain.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Forecast for the next few hours is quite challenging, as a warm
front lifts north through the area. Temperatures are surging
into the 50s generally along and south of the i-276 i-195
corridors and remain stuck in the 30s to around 40 north of the
i-78 corridor. If anything, models are too slow with the front's
northward progress, which is certainly unusual when considering
the typical systematic bias models exhibit. Not so unusual is
the models are too weak with both the temp and dew point
gradients, so the forecast temperatures are generally too cool
south of the front and too warm north of the front. Modified the
forecast the rest of the night in an attempt to account for
these discrepancies, though this will be a matter of chasing
observations for the most part given the fairly poor performance
of the models to this point.

Another issue is the rather light rain and drizzle that is
developing near the warm front, which is generally overdone with
some hi-res guidance and not forecast by other models. A
consensus approach to pops wx grids seems appropriate in this
regime. This greatly reduced pops for the next 3-5 hours
southeast of the fall line (where precipitation will be light
and may not be measurable some hours), and slowed the onset of
higher pops in the poconos, where rain still remains rather
spotty light as well (though with more widespread coverage than
farther southeast).

Expecting precipitation to pick up after 09z, especially
near northwest of the fall line given hi-res model consensus.

Will continue to monitor and update the forecast as the latest
hi-res guidance comes in.

Finally, updated the wind forecast based on surface
observations. This required increasing the winds gusts farther
northwest into the urban corridor but slightly reducing the
magnitudes of the gusts to the southeast given the past few
hours of observations in DELMARVA and southern new jersey. Gusts
are predominantly below 40 mph (well below advisory criteria),
though an isolated gust to 45 mph is possible right near the
coast. The magnitude of the low-level jet is allowing even
inefficient mixing to provide breezy conditions, but the low-
level thermal profile is not particularly favorable for stronger
mixing gusts.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm today
Forecast is mostly on track for a heavy rain strong wind event
on Thursday. Made some minor edits to the forecast, but the
general setup looks similar to past forecasts.

A strong surface low in quebec will lift northeast today, with a
south-southwest extending cold front sweeping through the
northeast and mid-atlantic during the day. Very strong low-level
warm moist advection will occur in advance of the front, with
sustained deep large-scale lift aided by the presence of the
right-entrance region of an anticyclonic and intense (180+-kt)
250-mb jet streak and differential cyclonic vorticity advection
downstream of a deep strong midlevel trough reaching the
appalachians by 12z. With an unusually moist troposphere (pws
~1.5 inches by mid-morning; off-the-charts climatologically), a
period of moderate to heavy rain appears probable across the
whole area this morning into early afternoon. Hi-res models
continue to simulate, nearly universally, a fairly intense,
frontally-forced line of convection embedded within the broader
shield of rain. Instability looks meager at best, so lightning
will be scarce and possibly nonexistent.

The bigger story will be the heavy rain rates within the shield
of rain, particularly with the aforementioned frontally-forced
line. With consensus model QPF generally 1-1.5 inches (slightly
higher north of i-78), suspect most of this rain will occur in
a 1-3 hour period. Given the cold ground, wet antecedent
conditions, and responses to previous events (even longer-
duration lighter-rain events), urban and small-stream flooding
looks probable within the current flood watch. Cannot rule out
an instance or two of flash flooding, given the convective look
to the precipitation just in advance of the front. The primary
limitation is the progressive nature of the precipitation line.

Given that precipitation is struggling to develop well
downstream of the front so far tonight, the progressive nature
of the front may preclude a more widespread flood threat.

Nevertheless, the potential certainly exists for some localized
flooding, especially where the heaviest axis of precipitation
sets up. Should this be in the urban corridor or in especially
sensitive areas to the northwest of philadelphia, think that a
few instances of flooding will occur.

The other issue will be the winds, both in advance of the front
and with its passage. Mixing will continue downstream of the
front this morning, with models hinting at widespread gusts
35-45 mph with localized instances higher than that. This looks
a little overdone (hi-res models tend to do this in these
regimes), but the strength of the low-level jet (50-80+ kts)
certainly suggests the possibility of some stronger wind gusts.

My suspicion, however, is the strongest wind gusts will occur
with and just in advance of the frontally-forced line of
precipitation, with negative buoyancy effects allowing for
enhanced downward momentum transfer. Whatever the causal
mechanisms, strong wind gusts for a time are a good bet, with
the current wind advisory unchanged at this time.

Temperatures will continue to surge in advance of the
precipitation, but the front will move through during the
afternoon, with temps dews falling thereafter. Winds will switch
to the northwest and may continue to be gusty for a time.

Precipitation should shut off quickly upstream of the front, but
may linger in the far northern cwa, where switchover to some
snow showers is possible.

Used a heavy dose of hi-res model guidance for temperatures
through tomorrow, as statistical bias-corrected guidance is
expected to verify poorly in such a rapidly-changing
meteorological regime.

Long term tonight through Wednesday
Overview...

most if not all of this period will be driven by the presence of a
broad, deep trough over the central and eastern us. The axis of the
longwave trough will move little for several days, but the flow within
the trough is progressive and will allow for multiple shortwaves to
rotate through it. The tracks and timing of these features will dictate
our precipitation opportunities for this weekend and early next week.

With the depth of the trough, appears we are largely shut out from any
southern stream moisture this period, which would favor precipitation
threats to be on the lighter side. However, given multiple northern
stream disturbances moving through, it will have to be monitored as to
whether we can tap into any of the better moisture to the south and
potentially create a larger precip event. Present indications suggest
not, but still several days away. Plenty of bitterly cold air will be
present well to our north over this stretch, but despite the troughing
pattern the core of the cold remains largely bottled up in canada.

Thus, temperatures should not stray too far from normal for most of
this period.

Dailies...

Friday-Saturday... This looks like the quiet portion of the long term.

Cold front will be well offshore by Friday morning with high pressure
gradually building in from the west. Temperatures trend cooler but not
especially cold. A shortwave passing through the great lakes and into
the northeast on Friday is largely moisture starved, but could produce
some light snow showers in western and northwestern areas.

Saturday night-Sunday... First potential unsettled period of the long
term comes here as a potent shortwave and closed h5 low dives into
ontario. However, this system remains well to our north, and appears
unlikely to connect with better moisture well to our south and east.

This means the most likely outcome is just some scattered snow showers
late Saturday night and Sunday. Winds turn out of the south before a
cold frontal passage late Sunday, so it is possible these showers may
mix with rain in southern areas given decent WAA ahead of the front.

Sunday night-Monday... High pressure likely builds in to our north, at
least briefly. Guidance does begin to diverge quite a bit by this
period, not surprising given models often struggle with small, fast
moving features like we will be dealing with. But feel this period
should be mostly dry. A lot of spread on temperatures at this range as
baroclinicity looks strong over the east, with very cold air not far to
the north but much warmer not far south and our region likely caught in
between. Stayed close to the consensus which leaves us near average.

Monday night-Wednesday... Confidence decreases further here. Decent
agreement on a clipper low moving through the lingering trough and
approaching Monday night or Tuesday, with some discrepancies on its
exact track. We are probably in line for a precipitation event centered
around Tuesday, but several scenarios exist. This includes a warm
solution of a single parent low passing to our west, which is favored
by most of the 23.12z guidance. However, some form of coastal
redevelopment could also occur and introduce more complications, as
some of the 23.0z guidance and 23.12z ec suggested. Plenty of time to
iron this out and as usual for this range keeping details limited for
now. Drier and colder weather likely returns by Wednesday though can't
rule out some snow showers here either.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Rest of tonight... Deteriorating conditions to MVFR through the
remainder of the night. Rain chances increase from west-
northwest to southeast through 4 am. Some showers ahead of the
main area of rain have and will likely continue to move through
the area, likely affecting kphl, kpne, and kttn terminals. South
winds 10-15 knots initially, with higher gusts up to 30 knots
possible, especially southwest of kphl and closer to daybreak.

Winds should remain on the lighter side tonight from 5-10 knots
at krdg and kabe. Southwesterly llws is also present across the
terminals tonight, generally around 45-55 knots.

Thursday... Ifr restrictions will continue through at least early
afternoon, with rain (heavy at times). Southwesterly llws will also
continue through the morning, being the strongest at kacy.

Conditions are expected to improve rapidly during the afternoon with
the passage of a cold front.VFR is possible late into the day.

Southwest winds 10 to 20 kts with higher gusts possibly up to 40
knots before the frontal passage. Timing of the frontal passage
looks to be from 14-18z across the area from west to east. Winds
should take a more northwesterly direction after the front passes
through.

Outlook...

Thursday night... MainlyVFR with west to northwest winds around
or below 10 kts.

Friday and Saturday... MainlyVFR conditions expected. Winds
generally below 20 knots.

Saturday night through Sunday night... A cold front may bring rain
and or snow showers, thus possibly lowering visibilities and
bringing restrictions, especially at krdg and kabe.

Monday... MainlyVFR. Some MVFR possible in rain and or snow showers.

Marine
Small craft advisory conditions through tonight, then upgraded to a
gale warning for Thursday morning to early Thursday afternoon.

An intense wind field will accompany a cold front that moves across
our area on Thursday. Ahead of this front, very strong south to
southwest winds will overspread the area with this peaking mainly
Thursday morning. It is challenging regarding how much of the wind
is able to mix down to the surface given strong warm air advection
over the much cooler waters. The forecast soundings indicate a
rather limited mix layer, however very strong winds are just above
the surface. In addition, a narrow line of low-topped convection
(probably little or no lightning) will accompany the front later
Thursday morning. Stronger winds could mix down with this. Given the
intense wind field forecast, opted to go with a gale warning for all
waters for a portion of Thursday. Small craft advisory conditions
will then follow through Thursday night as much colder air follows
(although not as cold as the previous cold front).

Outlook...

Thursday night... The rain moves out and northwest winds diminish,
but seas will likely remain above advisory criteria through the
night.

Friday-Saturday...VFR. Winds mainly out of the west and northwest with
gusts at or below 20 kt. High confidence.

Saturday night-Sunday... Rain or snow showers possible ahead of a cold
front. Localized ceiling and visibility restrictions possible with
mainly MVFR conditions but brief periods of ifr possible. Winds shift
to S then SE but gusts remain under 20 kt. Moderate confidence.

Sunday night-Monday... MainlyVFR or MVFR conditions currently expected
with isolated rain or snow showers possible. Moderate
confidence.

Hydrology
A flood watch remains in place for late tonight through Thursday
afternoon from the lehigh valley and northwest new jersey
southeastward to the i-95 295 corridors. A cold front will move
through the area on Thursday. A round of rain, moderate to heavy at
times, is expected in advance of the front late tonight into
tomorrow morning.

Expected storm totals are generally from 1 to 1.5 inches, with
locally higher amounts possible. Normally, these totals would not be
forecast to produce much flooding. However, a number of factors
suggest an elevated threat exists...

1) antecedent wet conditions, including from the rainfall this past
weekend.

2) relatively cold soils, aided by the arctic air that spread across
the region the past couple of days.

3) the expectation of most of this rain occurring in a three-to-six
hour period. With higher rain rates expected during a portion of the
event, especially just in advance of the frontal passage on
Thursday, additional runoff will be generated, which could lead to
flooding of particularly sensitive spots (e.G., urban areas and
quickly-responding creeks and streams).

4) light to moderate rain occurring for a few hours before the
heaviest rainfall occurs, which may act to saturate soils
sufficiently for efficient runoff during the most intense rainfall.

An isolated instance of flash flooding is possible, especially if
the heaviest rainfall (and high rainfall rates) occurs along the
urban corridor or atop smaller stream creek basins that respond
rapidly to runoff.

River flooding cannot be ruled out, especially on the passaic,
rockaway, north branch rancocas, and millstone rivers, if the axis
of heaviest rainfall intersects these basins.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Flood watch from 4 am est early this morning through this
afternoon for paz061-062-070-071-101>106.

Nj... Flood watch from 4 am est early this morning through this
afternoon for njz001-007>010-012>020-026-027.

Wind advisory from 6 am this morning to noon est today for
njz013-014-020>027.

De... Flood watch from 4 am est early this morning through this
afternoon for dez001.

Wind advisory from 6 am this morning to noon est today for
dez002>004.

Md... Flood watch from 4 am est early this morning through this
afternoon for mdz008.

Wind advisory from 6 am this morning to noon est today for
mdz012-015-019-020.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est early this morning for
anz430-431-450>455.

Gale warning from 6 am this morning to 1 pm est this afternoon
for anz430-431-450>455.

Synopsis... O'brien
near term... Cms
short term... Cms
long term... O'brien
aviation... Cms davis kruzdlo o'brien
marine... Kruzdlo o'brien
hydrology... Cms kruzdlo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 16 mi56 min SSW 9.9 G 18 57°F 39°F1013.3 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 21 mi56 min SSW 16 G 19 47°F 42°F1014.7 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 29 mi56 min 1012.9 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi56 min S 12 G 18 47°F 37°F1013.1 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 33 mi36 min 42°F6 ft1013.7 hPa (-3.5)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi116 min S 12 58°F 1013 hPa52°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 41 mi56 min 53°F 35°F1012.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi56 min SSE 13 G 15 44°F 1012.9 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE8 mi32 minS 18 G 2710.00 miMostly Cloudy and Breezy61°F53°F75%1012.2 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi32 minS 19 G 2710.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy59°F54°F83%1012.3 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD22 mi33 minSSW 10 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds49°F46°F93%1013.3 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S5S6S7S6S6S10SW8SW12S12SW11SW18
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1 day agoNW45NW55NW5NW35N75N5NW4CalmN3CalmS4CalmCalmCalmS5S6S5S5S5S5
2 days agoNW15
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Tide / Current Tables for Possum Point, Delaware
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Possum Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:04 AM EST     1.08 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:05 AM EST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:46 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:19 PM EST     1.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:13 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:43 PM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 09:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.110.80.60.30.1-0.1-0.2-0.10.30.711.21.110.80.50.2-0-0.2-0.2-00.4

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:02 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:24 AM EST     -1.68 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:08 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:07 AM EST     1.97 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:45 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 12:25 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:00 PM EST     -1.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:12 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:57 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:44 PM EST     1.76 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-0.7-1.3-1.6-1.6-1-0.10.81.621.81.20.4-0.5-1.2-1.6-1.9-1.6-0.900.91.61.71.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.