Thursday, January18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millsboro, DE

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:11PM Thursday January 18, 2018 12:49 AM EST (05:49 UTC) Moonrise 8:12AMMoonset 6:45PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 1221 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray likely.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray likely in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 3 to 4 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray late.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the morning, then 2 ft or less. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Light freezing spray early in the morning.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft in the evening, then 2 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
ANZ400 1221 Am Est Thu Jan 18 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure with its attendant frontal system will move off the east coast tonight. High pressure will build across the gulf coast through the end of the week, then offshore over the weekend, bringing fair weather to the mid-atlantic region. Low pressure is forecast to develop over the central u.s. On Monday. This low will move northeast through the great lakes Monday night into Tuesday, pulling a cold front across the mid-atlantic area on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millsboro, DE
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location: 38.59, -75.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 180533
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1233 am est Thu jan 18 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure with its attendant frontal system will move off
the east coast tonight. High pressure will build across the gulf
coast through the end of the week, then offshore over the
weekend, bringing fair weather to the mid- atlantic region. Low
pressure is forecast to develop over the central u.S. On Monday.

This low will move northeast through the great lakes Monday
night into Tuesday, pulling a cold front across the mid-
atlantic area on Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am this morning
Quiet weather on tap through the overnight. Skies continue to
clear out, and winds for most of the area will diminish to less
than 5 mph. The exception will be along the southeast nj coast
and into the delmarva, where NW winds range from 10-15 mph with
gusts up to 20 mph.

For areas where winds are light, the combination of clear
skies, light winds, and new snow on ground will allow for
radiational cooling and temperatures will drop off
dramatically.

Will adjust hourly temperature grids going through the early
morning hours. Will also drop overnight lows by a few degrees
across the poconos and lehigh valley.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Friday
On the heels of the low, a mid level short wave ridge is
expected to propagate over the region through the day tomorrow
resulting in mostly sunny conditions. At the surface, the
pressure gradient is expected to increase for a period tomorrow
as the surface high builds in. As a result, could see some gusty
conditions, but on land, not expecting gusts above 25 mph.

Temperature wise, we will still have cold air advection with the
northwesterly flow. As a result, expect highs to be from the mid 20s
to near 40 across the region, or about 5 degrees below normal.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
The extended forecast will feature somewhat above normal
temperatures (for a change) and generally fair weather at least
through this weekend. A fairly strong frontal passage with
associated low pressure and precipitation is expected sometime
on Tuesday of next week.

By Thursday night the low pressure aloft now over the southern
appalachians will be well offshore. A fast-moving shortwv trof
will swing across new england but should have little effect on
sensible weather over the mid-atlantic region. Thereafter
through the weekend zonal flow aloft will prevail across the
north-central and northeast us. Meanwhile a large area of high
pressure centered along the glfmex coast will gradually shift
east and off the southeast us coast by Sunday. Westerly flow
around the northern periphery of this high will help maintain
fair weather with a trend toward moderating temps, especially
starting Saturday.

A fairly deep trof aloft is forecast to move into the western us
over the weekend and into the central grtplns by Monday. In
response surface low pressure should develop over the plains and
move eastward into the grtlks by Tuesday. The associated cold
front should move through nj and vicinity roughly in the Tuesday
morning time frame, although the latest ECMWF looks a bit
slower. Increasing SW low-level flow ahead of the low front will
result in increasing moisture starting Sunday night. At that
time the forecast includes slight chance pops well north of phl,
with the possibility of some freezing rain or drizzle,
depending on the degree of overnight surface cooling.

Forecast pops increase from chance on Monday to likely Monday
night with the approaching cold front. Depending on how quickly
cold air moves in, there could be some changeover to snow in the
poconos late Monday night. Due to timing uncertainty, the
forecast maintains some chance for precip through Tuesday,
mainly in the morning. Forecast MAX temps for Tue are still
above freezing (and above normal) but cold advection aloft could
produce snow showers well N W of phl.

The air mass behind the front is not terribly cold and forecast
max temps for Wednesday look to be still slightly above normal.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Overnight...VFR conditions. After 09-10z, wind speeds at 2000
feet will will increase to around 40 kt with light surface
winds. Will add a llws group to the 06z tafs. High confidence.

Thursday...VFR skc. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt,
except for kphl kacy, where gusts up to 25 kt are possible.

Outlook...

Friday through Sunday...VFR conditions expected. West to
southwest winds, generally less than 10 kt. High confidence.

Monday... MainlyVFR conditions but occasional MVFR possible in
scattered showers.

Marine
Expect the highest winds, and most widespread small craft
advisory conditions to occur late through mid morning Thursday.

Gusts near or above 25 kt are likely to continue through the
rest of Thursday. Therefore, have continued the SCA as is for
now.

Small chance a short fuse gale warning may be needed for the de
waters and lower de bay in the 08-14z 18 time frame. Sct gusts
35 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Will extend SCA on ocean to 1am Friday for
continued 25 kt gusts. Otherwise, conditions expected to drop
below advisory levels.

Friday-Sunday... Conditions expected to remain below advisory levels,
but winds may periodically gust around 20 knots.

Monday... Increasing south winds with gusts possibly approaching
sca levels late in the day.

Equipment
The NOAA all-hazards weather radio transmitter in sudlersville
has returned to service with the correction of earlier phone
line issues. Rdg temp has rts.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am est Friday for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 10 am est this morning for anz430-
431.

Synopsis... Amc
near term... Drag johnson mps
short term... Johnson
long term... Amc
aviation... Amc drag johnson mps
marine... Amc drag johnson mps
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 16 mi50 min NNW 22 G 25 25°F 33°F1022.9 hPa (-1.3)
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 21 mi50 min N 19 G 25 25°F 35°F1022.4 hPa (-1.8)
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 29 mi50 min N 19 G 29 24°F 1023.8 hPa (+0.0)
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi50 min NNW 13 G 23 24°F 32°F1022.5 hPa (-0.7)
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 33 mi60 min NNW 27 G 33 28°F 42°F6 ft1021.2 hPa (-1.8)19°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi140 min WNW 6 22°F 1024 hPa10°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 41 mi50 min 23°F 32°F1024.9 hPa (-0.9)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi50 min NNW 14 G 20 24°F 30°F1024 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE8 mi56 minN 8 G 1710.00 miOvercast25°F9°F50%1023.4 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi56 minN 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast24°F10°F55%1023.3 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD22 mi1.9 hrsNNW 13 G 2210.00 miOvercast25°F12°F58%1023.2 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--NW3CalmCalmNW74NW6N6NW7N7
G14
NW76NW8NW6N9
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NW6NW5NW8NW6N7
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64N6N8
G17
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW3N3NE4----------------------------
2 days agoN3NW4NW4N7N8N9NE12
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N8N7N10N7N4N5NE8NE10NE9NE8NE7NE4NE3NE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Possum Point, Indian River, Delaware
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Possum Point
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Thu -- 06:17 AM EST     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:16 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:11 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:46 AM EST     1.11 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:07 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 07:02 PM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.80.70.60.40.20-0.1-00.20.50.811.110.90.70.50.20.100.10.30.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:44 AM EST     -1.11 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:31 AM EST     1.43 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:46 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:17 PM EST     -1.43 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:19 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:43 PM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 08:07 PM EST     1.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:11 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.7-1-1.1-0.8-0.20.511.41.41.10.5-0.2-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.3-0.8-0.20.40.91.110.60.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.