Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millsboro, DE

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Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 8:22PM Sunday July 22, 2018 3:02 AM EDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 12:58AM Illumination 69% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ455 Coastal Waters From Cape May Nj To Cape Henlopen De Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Cape Henlopen To Fenwick Island De Out 20 Nm- 1230 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.gale warning in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Rest of tonight..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 10 seconds.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers early in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms late.
Sun night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 7 seconds. Showers with a chance of tstms.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. SWell mainly from the se with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of tstms. Showers until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late.
Mon night..S winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Thu..S winds around 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ400 1230 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for the coastal waters from sandy hook nj to fenwick island de and for delaware bay.. Low pressure will move northward pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest will drift south into the southeast u.s. Through the middle of next week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millsboro, DE
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location: 38.59, -75.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 220445
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
1245 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will move northward up the chesapeake bay this evening,
then through pennsylvania and western new york late tonight into
Sunday. Meanwhile, another area of low pressure over the midwest
will drift south into the southeast u.S. Through the middle of next
week. A cold front may eventually move into the region late in the
week, then stall near the east coast heading into next weekend.

Near term until 6 am this morning
With the low moving northward into delmarva, the heavy rain is
lifting into the northern part of our forecast area. The rain is
starting to break up some as a dry slot works its way int our
area. With the flash flood threat having diminished, we have
gone ahead and cancelled the flash flood watch.

An easterly low-level jet near 50 knots is working northward,
and a mesoanalysis shows some instability creeping onto the
coastal areas from off the ocean. It is here where dew points
have risen to around 70 degrees. While a few isolated
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out with the ongoing bands of
heavier rain sliding northward, looks like the main instability
is held just offshore. Still kept a slight chance of thunder for
the far eastern areas for awhile tonight.

The easterly winds have increased especially along the coast
with some gusts to 40 mph thus far. Some additional increase
should take place over the next several hours as the surface low
works north-northwest and the low-level jet strengthens some
northward. As a result, no changes to the earlier issued wind
advisory.

Did speed up the decreasing pops across the southern areas
especially as a dry slot works in over the next few hours. The
hourly temperature, dew point, wind and wind gust grids were
adjusted based on the latest observations then these were
blended into mostly continuity.

Otherwise, as the low tracks across pennsylvania later tonight,
drier air begins to move in on the backside, and precipitation
will begin to come to an end front south to north. Areas across
northeast pennsylvania and northern new jersey may hold on to
rain until daybreak Sunday.

Short term 6 am this morning through 6 pm Monday
As the low pressure system continues to lift to our north and
northwest toward the great lakes in the morning hours, most
precipitation will come to an end. However, our area will still
be under the influence of south-southwest flow aloft, along with
increasing southerly flow at the surface. This will allow for
temperatures to warm during the day, especially if any sunshine
breaks out. This will lead to increasing instability during the
day, and with any short wave vorticity impulses moving across
the area, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through the day Sunday, especially during the afternoon
hours. Since storms are expected to be mostly scattered, and
there is not overly strong instability or shear expected, we are
not expecting widespread severe weather. Nor are we expecting
widespread flooding as pw values will be below 2 inches and any
storms should be fairly progressive.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
This unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue into the
upcoming week and at least the first part of next weekend. This
unsettled pattern can be attributed to a high amplitude pattern that
consists of a deep upper trough over the eastern CONUS and
downstream ridge blocking over the western atlantic basin.

Tropospheric-deep southerly flow in between these two systems will
continue to draw tropical moisture up the eastern seaboard,
resulting in very muggy conditions (dewpoints in the 70s) and [at
least the threat of] multiple rounds of showers and storms each day.

Unlike with today's event, there doesn't appear to be any organized
synoptic disturbance(s) in particular to produce widespread rain
and or result in a washout on most days next week except possibly
sometime midweek when the cutoff low to our west becomes an open
wave and finally lifts northeastward through the region. Models
continue to struggle figuring out how quickly the shortwave trough
ejects downstream toward the mid atlantic but the spread has
narrowed between sometime Wednesday and Thursday. This timing
uncertainty prevented us from going much higher with pops in any one
period.

The threat of heavy rainfall and flooding this week will increase as
soils become increasingly wet and stages rise in area basins
following each successive round of rainfall. Potential hydro impacts
will be added to the hwo. With convective coverage much more
disorganized than with today's event, heavy rainfall should be much
more localized and thus responses from runoff on the larger river
basins next week is highly uncertain.

Aviation 06z Sunday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... MVFR ifr conditions overall, although locallyVFR
conditions will occur at times this evening. The rain will end
from south to north mostly in the 05z-08z time frame. East-
northeast winds 10-20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots (highest
gusts closer to the coast), then becoming southeast and
diminishing overnight. An east to southeast low-level jet at
2000 feet of 40-50 knots will result in low-level wind shear
even with the gusty surface winds.

Sunday... Mainly ifr to start, then the conditions are expected
to improve to MVFR during the morning and may improve toVFR
during the afternoon for some areas. There should be a lull in
the showers for a time in the morning, then some showers and a
few thunderstorms develop especially in the afternoon. Southeast
to south winds around 10 knots, with some gusts up to 20 knots
possible during the afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Thursday... Rounds of showers and
thunderstorms through much of next week though activity will
generally not be widespread and or steady. Periods of sub-vfr
conditions are possible with this activity. SE winds generally
5-15 kt through Tuesday, becoming S Wednesday and Thursday.

Marine
Winds are turning more to the south and starting to diminish.

We have cancelled the gale warning on the upper delaware bay and
converted over to a small craft advisory as winds will continue
to gust up to 30 knots through early Sunday.

A gale warning remains in effect for all of the coastal waters,
including the lower delaware bay. The wind gusts on the lower
delaware bay remain around 35 to 40 knots at brandywine and we
have extended the gale warning through 08z.

The northern portions of the new jersey coastal waters are
expected to have the strongest winds (40-45 knots). There is a
brief window for an isolated gust to reach 50 knots, but we are
uncertain how much mixing will occur and if those strongest
winds mix down to the surface. So for now we have kept with the
gale warning.

Outlook...

Sunday night and Monday... SCA will likely be needed. S-se winds
10- 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the coastal atlantic waters.

Waves will continue to remain elevated in the 4-7 ft range.

Monday night through Wednesday... S-se winds will weaken to below sca
criteria. However, a SCA will likely be needed with seas forecast to
remain near 5 ft.

Wednesday night and Thursday... S winds increase slightly to 15-20 kt
with a chance for 25 kt gusts in the coastal waters. Nonetheless, a
sca will likely be needed with seas still around 5 ft.

Rip currents...

high risk of rip currents has been extended through early Sunday
evening for the new jersey and delaware beaches.

Strong onshore flow this evening along with dangerous surf is
resulting in a high risk of rip currents. As for Sunday, the
surf looks to remain agitated despite low pressure well to our
north. The wave period should lengthen some and with a gusty
south to southeast wind, the high risk of rip currents was extended
through Sunday.

An enhanced rip current risk should linger into the early part
of the new week as a stiff southerly flow keeps wave heights
around 5 or 6 feet on the waters off our coast.

Equipment
The kdox radar will remain offline until parts and a maintenance
kit to replace the azimuth and elevation motors are received.

The current estimated return to service is early next week.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk through this evening for njz014-024>026.

Wind advisory until 4 am edt early this morning for njz012>014-
020-026.

De... High rip current risk through this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 am edt early this morning for anz450>455.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt early this morning for
anz430.

Gale warning until 4 am edt early this morning for anz431.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Gorse robertson meola
short term... Robertson
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein robertson meola
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 16 mi38 min S 7 G 11 71°F 72°F1004.5 hPa
OCIM2 - 8570283 - Ocean City Inlet, MD 21 mi38 min SW 23 G 30 72°F 74°F1006.5 hPa
OCSM2 21 mi182 min 8 ft
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 29 mi32 min S 28 G 33 73°F 1004.4 hPa
CMAN4 - 8536110 - Cape May, NJ 32 mi32 min S 14 G 21 71°F 73°F1004.4 hPa
44009 - DELAWARE BAY 26 NM Southeast of Cape May, NJ 33 mi72 min S 23 G 33 74°F 74°F10 ft1005.3 hPa (+2.1)74°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 35 mi92 min SSE 11 74°F 1002 hPa74°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 41 mi32 min 70°F 79°F1005.7 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 47 mi32 min SW 22 G 25 72°F 81°F1005.8 hPa

Wind History for Lewes, DE
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Georgetown - Delaware Coastal Airport, DE8 mi68 minS 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast72°F71°F97%1004.1 hPa
Salisbury, Salisbury-Ocean City Wicomico County Regional Airport, MD20 mi68 minSSW 132.00 miFog/Mist70°F70°F100%1005 hPa
Ocean City, Ocean City Municipal Airport, MD22 mi69 minSW 15 G 2610.00 miOvercast71°F69°F94%1005.7 hPa

Wind History from GED (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4E5E3E6E8E9E12
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E6E10E10SE8
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SE10SE11SE9E4E4E3SE4NE3NE3NE4
2 days agoN3N3N4N4N4NE10NE8NE9NE7
G14
NE7NE8NE9NE6E7NE9SE8SE4SE5E3SE3--CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Possum Point, Indian River, Delaware
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Possum Point
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Sun -- 01:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:41 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:31 AM EDT     0.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:37 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 08:14 PM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.30.20.20.20.40.60.80.80.80.70.50.40.20.10.10.20.40.70.91110.8

Tide / Current Tables for Delaware Bay Entrance, Delaware Current
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Delaware Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 01:57 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:26 AM EDT     1.00 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:27 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:55 AM EDT     -1.01 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:46 PM EDT     1.30 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 04:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:08 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:38 PM EDT     -1.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.50.10.7110.70.2-0.3-0.6-0.9-1-0.8-0.40.10.71.21.31.10.60.1-0.4-0.8-1.1-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.