Friday, November17, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 4:54PM Friday November 17, 2017 7:51 PM EST (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 5:47AMMoonset 4:48PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 632 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am est Saturday through late Saturday night...
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming S 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Sat..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt...increasing to 35 kt late. Waves 4 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 5 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft... Building to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 632 Pm Est Fri Nov 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore tonight through Saturday. A strong cold front will move across the waters late Saturday night and high pressure will build to the south for Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Gale force winds are possible over the waters this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 171955
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
255 pm est Fri nov 17 2017

High pressure will move offshore tonight through Saturday. A
strong cold front will cross the area late Saturday night. High
pressure will build to the south of the region late Sunday
through Monday before moving offshore Tuesday. Another cold
front will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday and
canadian high pressure is likely to build overhead for
thanksgiving day.

Near term through tonight
High pressure is currently almost directly over the region, and
winds have lessened considerably. However, warm advection has
already begun in advance of the approaching system to our west,
and high level moisture is already moving overhead in the form
of high cirrus.

Tonight, high pressure will shift southeast into the atlantic
near CAPE hatteras, with winds now going light and variable
becoming southerly by dawn. We may radiate quickly early this
evening, but increasing flow late tonight mean we likely won't
get as cold as we could if it otherwise stayed near calm all
night. The increasing high clouds will also likely limit
radiational cooling. Thus, have not gone quite as cold as the
coldest guidance, but still expect many areas near freezing.

Short term Saturday through Sunday night
System developing in the central plains at present will bring
some active weather to us this weekend, with the main focus
being near and after cold frontal passage late Saturday night.

To start Saturday, high pressure will be to the southeast, and a
warm front will be approaching from the south as low pressure
strengthens and heads northeast across the corn belt. As the
warm front lifts north through the day, clouds will continue to
thicken and lower, and some rain may break out across the area.

Best chance is northwest of i-95 corridor, up in western md and
eastern wv, but guidance is shifting a bit further south as
well, so future shifts may need to raise pops all the way to dc
from what we currently have. That having been said, rain still
looks likely to hold off until morning across western zones, and
until afternoon in the metro (if it makes it that far). Temps
should rise above freezing everywhere by then, but there is a
small chance a little ice could occur in a sheltered valley near
cumberland early Saturday. Otherwise, the increasing low level
southerly flow will be increasing through the day, and a late
day or evening high looks more likely than not. In fact, temps
could spike several degrees warmer than our forecast towards
midnight, but given uncertainty, held temps down for now.

Warm front should lift north of the CWA late Saturday early
Saturday night, and the rain chances look to diminish for a time
late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening as it does so. Cold
front then pushes east across the region late Saturday night
into early Sunday morning, possibly accompanied by a low-topped
squall line or squall segments. There is a lot of low level wind
ahead of the front, but given the southerly flow and likely low
level inversion, do not expect widespread wind advisory criteria
ahead of the front - however, some ridges may touch wind
advisory before the front passes Saturday night. Highs will also
likely be reached predawn Sunday across most of the region, with
temps possibly spiking into the 60s, but our forecast highs do
not reflect this given they focus on the daylight hours Sunday
when temps will be more or less steady, perhaps even falling.

Winds with the actual front could touch wind advisory late
Saturday night early Sunday, especially if there is a band of
showers with it.Possible
behind the front, most areas will dry out as low pressure lifts
northeast into southern canada, but upslope flow will get going
along the alleghany front, so snow showers are likely most of
the day Sunday before diminishing Sunday evening. Advisory level
accumulations are possible along the alleghany front. Further
east, the main story will be the wind, which is likely to gust
close to advisory criteria even in the low elevations of the
metro, though odds are better in northern areas (maryland) than
further south (virginia). Right now best gradient and wind aloft
combined with mixing appears to maximize gusts during the
morning Sunday, so this is when we peak them in the forecast,
but its possible it peaks with the actual front overnight, or
later in the day when mixing increases (but winds aloft and
gradient diminish a bit). Given how far out in time it is, have
held off on wind advisory for now, but it still looks like a
decent bet especially near the mason-dixon line.

By Sunday night, the low will be continuing to move away and the
gradient, winds aloft and mixing will all decrease as heights
start to rise. This should both cut off the snow in the upslope
regions as well as allow gusts to fall off. Temps will be chilly
Sunday night, but not as cold as we experienced a week ago.

Long term Monday through Friday
High pressure will build into the region Monday and Monday
night. Dry conditions expected with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees
below average each period.

The high pressure will move offshore Tuesday to allow for a
strong cold front to plunge southeastward into the region
Tuesday night. The front should be a dry front with the lack of
moisture present. However, we can't rule out a couple of upslope
snow showers Tuesday night.

High pressure will build into the region Wednesday through
Friday. Temperatures will remain chilly for this time in
november with dry conditions and some sunshine.

Aviation 19z Friday through Wednesday
Vfr through Saturday, though CIGS will be lowering and vis may
briefly be restricted in showers during the afternoon Saturday.

There may also be some low level wind shear Saturday morning,
particularly at mrb, but also possibly at the other terminals.

Brief ifr possible in showers with winds possibly gusting to 40
knots late Saturday night as cold front plows through. Going
quickly back toVFR Sunday, but winds may continue to gust, with
possibly 40 knot gusts at times Sunday, with best odds being at
bwi mtn. Winds diminish with continuedVFR Sunday night.

Vfr conditions expected Monday through Tuesday night. Winds
west around 10 knots gusts 15 knots Monday. Winds southwest 5 to
10 knots Monday night through Tuesday night.

Winds diminishing at present as high pressure moves overhead, so
sca will be dropped shortly. Most of night should be sub sca,
but southerly flow on back side of high will begin after
midnight, so have hoisted SCA for mid-bay zones after midnight,
then all zones during the day Saturday. Winds above the surface
look quite strong, but think this southerly flow over somewhat
cooled waters should keep gales from happening Saturday and most
of Saturday night, so just extended SCA through the night. We
may need a gale late Saturday night with the cold frontal
passage and accompanying gusty showers, and will likely need one
in the wake of the front on Sunday for NW winds gusting perhaps
as high as 40 knots. Winds diminish Sunday night as the front
and storm moves further away and high pressure starts building

Small craft advisories may still be needed Monday. Winds west
10 to 15 knots gusts up to 20 knots. No marine hazards Monday
night through Tuesday night.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies remain low, but will likely rebound as the lingering
anomalies to our south push back north with increasing southerly
flow later tonight and Saturday. Minor flooding is anticipated
at our sensitive sites, perhaps even some of the less sensitive
ones, during the high tides later Saturday into early Sunday.

After that, cold front will bring northwest winds back and
should drop the anomalies enough to prevent minor flooding by
midday Sunday at latest, probably earlier.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 am Saturday to 6 am est Sunday for

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz533-

Small craft advisory from midnight tonight to 6 am est Sunday
for anz534-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Klw
aviation... Rcm klw
marine... Rcm klw
tides coastal flooding... Rcm

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi81 min SSE 1 41°F 1021 hPa34°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi51 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 49°F 53°F

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi65 minN 010.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1021.7 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi59 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds37°F33°F86%1021 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
Last 24hrNW6
1 day agoCalmW3W3CalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6SW5SW7W6W9SW6W8W6W8SW12W10W9NW3NW5NW6
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4N3N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Plum Point
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:49 AM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:47 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:05 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:39 PM EST     1.27 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 09:29 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Fri -- 01:56 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:56 AM EST     -0.44 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 05:46 AM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:43 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:04 AM EST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:43 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:48 PM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:58 PM EST     -0.62 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 09:33 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 11:49 PM EST     0.29 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.