Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:23AMSunset 7:59PM Thursday August 17, 2017 2:00 AM EDT (06:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:54AMMoonset 3:36PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 131 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Overnight..SW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..S winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sat night..W winds 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 131 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure remain overhead late tonight. A warm front will pass through the area Thursday before a cold front approaches Friday. The cold front will pass through Friday night into early Saturday. A pressure trough will remain nearby for later Saturday and Sunday. Small craft advisories may be needed Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 170127
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
927 pm edt Wed aug 16 2017

Synopsis
High pressure over the region will slowly move east off the
coast tonight. A warm front will move northward Thursday into
Thursday night followed by a cold front that should pass through
the region Friday night. Weak high pressure will build into the
area over the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
Weak stalled front remains stretched west to east across the
middle of the forecast area. Isolated showers have been forming
in this zone, although a general dissipating trend is expected
to continue as nocturnal stability increases. Sharp inversion
around 14kft (below the freezing level) on the 00z iad sounding
explains why no lightning has been observed.

Overnight, warm advection will develop aloft, resulting in an
increase in mid-level clouds, but perhaps not until late. Thus
questions remain about low clouds and fog. The NAM has
definitely be the most pessimistic model in terms of both, while
the GFS only suggests some clouds between 5-7kft. Considered
sref and narre probs (which are low for significantly reduced
visibility) and thus kept the flavor of the forecast similar,
with patchy fog in the typical prone locations.

Dew points suggest lows will bottom out in the mid 60s to low
70s. May need to adjust up a little, especially in areas of
thicker clouds and to the south of the stalled boundary.

Boundary will slowly move northward back across the area during
the day Thursday. Pw's will surge significantly, with values
likely to be above 2 inches by late afternoon. A weak shortwave
and vort MAX will also cross the region. However, cloud cover
will be abundant, limiting CAPE availability somewhat. The
result in soundings is a skinny CAPE profile, more suggestive of
a heavy rain flash flooding threat than a severe threat, but
the latter can't be completely ruled out given around 25 knots
of shear. The best overlap of shear and instability will be in
the northwestern quadrant of the area... With the highest chances
of storms in general near and west of the blue ridge. With the
clouds, temps should end up a little cooler than Wednesday, but
still a very warm and sticky day.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
After the trough MAX passes and insolation wanes, expect
precipitation to wind down during the evening, but with a very
moist environment, a few showers may linger. With the clouds and
high humidity, lows will stay very high, with 70s being
widespread. Any areas that see a little clearing might see some
patchy fog. Depending on the location of forcing boundaries and
available instability aloft, there could be a continuation of
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain late in the night into
Friday morning due to an approaching low level jet. Current
model projections suggest this would be over the northeastern
quadrant of the area.

Friday the next cold front approaches. With more opportunity for
sun early in the day and cooling aloft, CAPE should be more
plentiful, with shear increasing to around 30 knots. This should
result in more of a severe threat versus flash flood threat,
though with pw's still over an inch and a half, any cells that
train could still pose a flood risk. With more sun, highs
should approach if not reach 90 in the warmer spots.

Front passes across the region at night, with chance of precip
rapidly declining. However, warmth and moisture at low levels
will be slower to exit, with lows likely in the 70s near i-95,
cooler in the mountains.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
A cold front will be stalling to our southeast as a weak high
pressure builds over our area on Saturday. Upper level energy
could bring some showers Saturday night, with dryness returning
on Sunday. High pressure moves offshore as the front slowly
pushes away from us and stall over the carolinas Sunday into
Monday. Southerly flow will advect humidity into our area with
increasing temperatures into Monday. A pressure trough could
enhance afternoon showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday.

A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday with
additional showers and thunderstorms possible. High temperatures
will be in the mid to upper 80s... Some 90s and 70s at higher
elevations.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
It looks like any remaining showers near a stalled front will
avoid the terminals. There certainly are a range of solutions
regarding CIGS vsby overnight. NAM has been the most pessimistic
with moisture overrunning with widespread ifr or lower, while
the GFS only suggest clouds between 5-7kft. Given low ifr probs
in the narre and sref, have kept flavor of previous forecast
with MVFR at iad, mrb, and cho. One caveat to the forecast: if
low clouds do develop, they may take some time to lift Thursday
morning, until a warm front can lift to the north.

Main concern Thursday and Friday will be thunderstorms, mostly
during the afternoon and early evening hours, which could result
in brief intervals of ifr CIGS and vis, along with gusty winds.

Vfr conditions expected Saturday into Monday, with short
periods of sub-vfr conditions Saturday night and maybe Monday
afternoon due to possible showers and thunderstorms.

Marine
Sub-sca at present, with variable wind directions due to a
stalled front as well as isolated showers which have produced
outflow boundaries. Southerly winds should develop Thursday
morning. An approaching cold front later Thursday into Friday
looks likely to bring southerly channeling to the bay and lower
potomac. SCA raised starting late Thursday and likely will need
to be extended through Friday. Other marine concern will be
thunderstorms each of the next two days, with gusty winds a
concern.

Mainly dry conditions expected Saturday into Monday, with
periods of showers and thunderstorms possibly developing
Saturday night and Monday afternoon. Wind gusts are expected to
stay below the small craft advisory threshold.

Tides coastal flooding
Anomalies are around a half foot tonight, which will keep water
levels below flood stage. A return of southerly winds will
bring rising anomalies back to the region on Thursday, with
potential minor flooding at sensitive sites by Thursday
afternoon evening and continuing into Friday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 6 am edt Friday for
anz533-534-537-541-543.

Synopsis... Rcm
near term... Ads rcm
short term... Rcm
long term... Imr
aviation... Ads imr rcm
marine... Ads imr rcm
tides coastal flooding... Ads rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 5 mi30 min SSE 7.8 G 9.7 80°F 1017.1 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 14 mi42 min S 8 G 8.9 79°F 1017.3 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi150 min Calm 69°F 1017 hPa68°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi48 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 80°F 82°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi60 min SSE 6 G 7 79°F 79°F
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi42 min 75°F 82°F1017.5 hPa
44063 - Annapolis 26 mi30 min S 5.8 G 5.8 80°F 1016.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi42 min 78°F 1016 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi42 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1
NCDV2 34 mi42 min NW 1.9 G 2.9 77°F 83°F1015.6 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 81°F 78°F1016 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi42 min S 5.1 G 6 80°F 83°F1016.8 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 39 mi30 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 79°F 1015.9 hPa
44043 - Patapsco, MD 39 mi30 min S 3.9 G 5.8 80°F 1016.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi42 min SSW 7 G 8 77°F 83°F1016.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi42 min SSW 1 G 1.9 78°F 1016.5 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi42 min Calm G 1 73°F 80°F1016.8 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 47 mi42 min W 1 G 1.9 77°F 82°F1016.2 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi63 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F69°F89%1017.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi68 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds76°F73°F91%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W3SW3W3W4W4NE4SE3CalmCalmSE3--CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Plum Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:02 AM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:37 AM EDT     1.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:41 PM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.51.41.210.80.60.50.60.70.9110.90.80.60.40.30.30.30.60.91.21.5

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Thu -- 12:04 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:16 AM EDT     -0.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:00 AM EDT     0.19 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:49 PM EDT     -0.39 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:35 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:39 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:10 PM EDT     0.56 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.4-0.200.10.20.20.1-0.1-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.10.10.30.50.60.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.