Sunday, September23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Prince Frederick, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 7:03PM Sunday September 23, 2018 7:52 AM EDT (11:52 UTC) Moonrise 5:41PMMoonset 4:15AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Rain.
Tonight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft. Rain likely.
Tue..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
ANZ500 735 Am Edt Sun Sep 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A frontal boundary will stall south of the waters through Monday. The front will return northward as a warm front Tuesday. Another cold front will then approach the waters Wednesday, and may stall near or south of the waters Thursday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Prince Frederick, MD
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location: 38.59, -76.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 230804
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
404 am edt Sun sep 23 2018

Synopsis High pressure will continue to build across northern
new england through Monday, then move off the coast Tuesday. The
next cold front will move across the area during the middle part
of the week.

Near term through tonight
Overrunning warm advection pattern is expected to strengthen
later this morning and will be aided by rrq jet dynamics to result
in a period of moderate rain today. Heaviest amts are expected
across eastern WV (grant, mineral into hampshire and hardy
counties). Rainfall amounts are likely to average around 0.75
inches with up to 1.5 inches possible as suggested by GEFS and
eps members. Given that the rain is expected to be stratiform in
nature and fall in a 12-hr period, most places should be able
to handle this amount of rain, so no flooding issues are
anticipated.

Rain should become much lighter late tonight as upper forcing
weakens and shortwave ridge builds in.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
Another round of light to moderate rain appears likely late mon
into Tue morning as h85 warm front lifts through the area aided
by shortwave energy and h25 jet dynamics. Rain should taper off
tue afternoon, but with low clouds remaining.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
The upper levels during the second half of next week and into the
weekend will be undergoing a change from a pattern featuring large
scale ridging off the southeastern us coastline and large scale
troughing over the upper midwest to a pattern that is much more
zonal in nature.

A low pressure system will be intensifying and moving northeastward
through the great lakes on Wednesday, placing the region in
southwesterly flow out ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold
front will make its way eastward during the day, likely crossing
into the area during the afternoon and evening hours. Thus, there
will be increased chances of showers thunderstorms, especially
Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures should be above normal
with morning lows in the 60s to near 70f and highs in the 80s.

The frontal boundary will likely stall or wash out near the region
Wednesday night through Thursday night, although there is
uncertainty with how far south east the front can progress. With a
possible frontal boundary nearby, good jet dynamics aloft, southwest
flow in the mid upper levels, and northeasterly surface flow induced
by a strong high pressure over SE canada, will favor model solutions
depicting rain chances continuing on Thursday Thursday night.

Temperatures should cool behind the boundary to near normals,
although will be dependent on evolution of clouds rain.

As the pattern continues to transition, another system will pass
near or north of the region on Friday, allowing high pressure to
build into the area over the weekend. Will keep lingering shower
chances (although lower) on Friday, with drying shown by Saturday.

Highs in the 70s, lows in the 50s to near 60f.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Cigs expected to drop as the day GOES on as sfc wedge
strengthens and rain becomes a little heavier. Expect ifr cigs
at all terminals by 18z and remaining like that through mon.

Some improvements in CIGS are possible Tue as sfc wedge begins
to weaken, but expect CIGS to remain at least into MVFR
category.

PrimarilyVFR likely Wednesday, although chances for
showers thunderstorms will be increasing by the afternoon. Potential
then exists for sub-vfr conditions to return Thursday as the front
may stall near the region leading to areas of low clouds showers.

Marine
Will likely be issuing SCA for the lower bay and lower potomac,
winds then expected to strengthen later today and remain gusty
through at least Monday as pressure gradient tightens.

Potential exists for SCA conditions to develop by Wednesday
afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Chances for
showers thunderstorms will be increasing as well. Sub-sca conditions
likely Thursday as a front stalls near or south of the waters.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 6 pm edt Monday
for anz532>534-537-541>543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr
short term... Lfr
long term... Mm
aviation... Mm lfr
marine... Mm lfr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 5 mi32 min NE 14 G 18 66°F 1022.4 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 14 mi34 min 64°F 1021.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 18 mi142 min NNW 1 57°F 1022 hPa57°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 19 mi34 min 65°F 78°F1021 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 22 mi34 min 63°F 76°F1022.2 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 22 mi52 min NE 13 G 14 63°F 73°F1022.5 hPa (+0.0)60°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi34 min 63°F 1021.2 hPa
CPVM2 29 mi34 min 64°F 60°F
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 32 mi70 min ENE 6 G 8.9
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 34 mi40 min 61°F 73°F1021.7 hPa
NCDV2 34 mi34 min 62°F 77°F1020.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 35 mi34 min 66°F 76°F1021.5 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 39 mi32 min ENE 14 G 18 68°F 1020 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 41 mi40 min 67°F 77°F1020.4 hPa
FSNM2 44 mi34 min 62°F 1021.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 44 mi34 min 62°F 1021.7 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi34 min 61°F 71°F1021.9 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 47 mi34 min 62°F 76°F1021.4 hPa

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
St Marys County Airport, MD19 mi1.7 hrsN 010.00 miOvercast63°F62°F100%1021.3 hPa
Patuxent River, Naval Air Station, MD21 mi2 hrsNE 910.00 miLight Rain68°F63°F84%1020.5 hPa

Wind History from 2W6 (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr--------------------------SE4------------NE4NE3CalmNE3
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Plum Point, Maryland
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.