Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 11:10 PM   Moonset 7:11 AM

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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 448 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 am edt Sunday - .
Rest of this afternoon - SE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft. Scattered showers. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt in the evening. Waves 2 ft. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Sun night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Tue - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Wed - N winds 5 to 10 kt - .becoming se. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.

ANZ500 448 Pm Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
a warm front will lift through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up. A cold front will cross the waters Tuesday bringing chances for showers and Thunderstorms. Small craft advisories may be needed at times through Tuesday.

FXUS61 KLWX 271803 AFDLWX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 203 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
Surface high pressure moves south along the eastern Appalachians today. A warm front lifts through the area by Sunday bringing a significant warm up heading into early next week. The next chance for widespread precipitation arrives with a series of cold fronts Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
A band of light to moderate showers continues to move east across the region, located around the I-95 corridor at this time. Most guidance had this band of showers dissipating earlier, but it is holding strong. Think this trend continues as it moves to our east, so have increased POPs this afternoon further east. Expect around a tenth of an inch of rainfall or so, perhaps two tenths in some of the heavier elements. Not seeing much in terms of lightning potential however, as instability remains zero over the entire area.

As we move into the evening hours, another round of showers may slide across the region from the west. Again, most guidance tears this band apart, and I am inclined to buy that trend as the energy associated with that band of showers is a bit weaker.

Most areas should be dry by midnight with cloudcover gradually decreasing through daybreak. Lows tonight will be mild in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Well above normal temperatures Sunday into Monday as a deep ridge moves across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. Highs are forecast to reach the low to mid 80s Sunday, then mid to upper 80s Monday with a few spots hitting 90F. Even in the mountains, highs are forecast to reach the 70s both days. A couple of climate sites could tie or be near their daily record highs for April 30 / Monday. Very mild overnight lows mostly in the 60s, with 50s in the mountains. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible each afternoon.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure will remain off the southeast coast Tuesday while a cold front approaches from the Ohio Valley. A lee trough will likely be situated across the local area. Showers, and eventually thunderstorms, will develop across the area in response to the surface features and a shortwave trough aloft. With dew points only around 60F, instability will be on the weaker side of the spectrum.
Bulk shear values around 30 kt would support some strong storms if enough instability can develop. Increasing clouds may knock a few degrees off temperatures, but it will still be very warm with highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Some showers and storms could linger into the night depending on the timing of the forcing.

The front will likely push through the area by Wednesday and the influence of high pressure in New England will likely stabilize the area. However, temperature/dew point contrast behind the front won't be high, with highs still well above normal in the upper 70s to mid 80s. What's left of the front will lift back northward Thursday in response to low pressure moving into the Great Lakes. Thursday should be dry for most of the area as forcing remains to the west.

Timing of the system's progression then becomes more uncertain.
Therefore a chance of showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal during this time.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Moderate showers are now along/east of the I-95 corridor, bringing some moderate showers to BWI/MTN at this time. Elsewhere, after some earlier VSBY restrictions from these showers, conditions are improving. CIGs remain MVFR however, and will around there through the early evening before improvement arrives.

VFR conditions return this evening and remain in place through Monday as high pressure builds across the region. Winds vary between southwest to west at around 5-10 knots Sunday through Monday.

There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday with light winds.

MARINE
Southeast to south winds around 10-15 knots continue most of the day today with a few light showers possible.

Southerly channeling is expected to produce SCA conditions once again late this afternoon into tonight, mainly in the main channel of the Chesapeake Bay. Some surrounding tidal rivers and bays on the Eastern Shore could see SCA winds this evening, though confidence is too low to issue a SCA at this time.

High pressure builds over the region Sunday into Monday, keeping winds below SCA levels. Winds vary from southwest to west at or around 10 knots.

Marginal SCA conditions are possible Tuesday in southwest flow.
There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, which could bring strong wind gusts. High pressure will likely provide lighter winds Wednesday and Thursday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Tidal anomalies seem to be on the decrease at this time, so no further tidal flooding is expected over the next several high tide cycles at this time for most areas. DC could remain somewhat elevated for the next high tide cycle or two, so perhaps could be close during the Sunday morning high tide, but the trend is certainly down at this time.

A steady southwest flow could bring some water up the Chesapeake Bay early in the week, but it isn't the most favorable direction to cause tidal issues.

CLIMATE
Near-record to record warmth is possible on Monday afternoon.
Below is a list of record high temperatures for April 29th, and the year the record was set.

Apr 29th Climate Site Record High Forecast High Washington-National (DCA) 91F (2017+) 90F Washington-Dulles (IAD) 89F (2017) 89F Baltimore (BWI) 91F (1951) 88F

+ denotes that multiple years reached this value, but the depicted year is the most recent.

LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ531>534-537-543.

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Lower Marlboro
Click for Map
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 02:19 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:11 PM EDT     1.60 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Marlboro, Maryland, Tide feet

Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290° true
Ebb direction 110° true

Sat -- 02:56 AM EDT     0.52 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:13 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 08:11 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:11 AM EDT     -0.56 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:06 PM EDT     0.15 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:38 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:26 PM EDT     -0.24 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 11:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current, knots

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