Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marumsco, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 7:29PM Monday March 27, 2017 8:27 PM EDT (00:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:55AMMoonset 6:08PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 731 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Patchy fog.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed night..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a chance of tstms...then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely in the morning...then a chance of showers through the night. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 731 Pm Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will push north of the mid atlantic this evening. A cold front is expected to cross the chesapeake bay region Tuesday night. High pressure will build across the waters for midweek, followed by a low pressure system moving towards the region on Friday. Small craft advisories are possible Tuesday night and Wednesday behind the cold front, and again on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marumsco, VA
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location: 38.61, -77.23     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 271855
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md/washington dc
255 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
A cold front will cross the area late Tuesday. High pressure
builds over the region Wednesday into Thursday. Another
disturbance will approach the area late Thursday into early Saturday.

Near term /through tonight/
While it took some time... Visible satellite imagery and surface
observations indicate that the stubborn marine stratus layer
has all but eroded from the area as warm front lifted northward
into pa. As expected... This has led to a rapid warmup... With
highs in most places well into the 70s by late afternoon (with
even some u70s possible across central va and the shenadoah
valley).

Cape gradient sets up this afternoon roughly from montgomery
county to the south... With ~500-700 j/kg of MUCAPE (~250 j/kg
mlcape) expected across central/northern va into south central
md. Thus, could be a few scattered thunderstorms this afternoon
across these areas along the differential heating boundary. 0-6
km effective bulk shear generally near 30-35 kts suggests a
storm could briefly become somewhat semi-organized. Though, lack
of deep quality moisture coupled with long skinny CAPE profiles
and relatively weak winds aloft likely limit any stronger
thunderstorms. Gusty winds and small sub-severe hail would be
the primary threats in any activity this afternoon. Thunderstorm
chances rapidly decline after sunset.

Isolated (to perhaps scattered at times) shower chances continue
through the overnight. Though, think most places will remain
dry through much of the night. Best chance for precipitation
arrives across the SW after midnight and then spreads ne
through the morning as shortwave approaches. There could be
some isolated thunder with this elevated activity.

In addition... There could be some patchy dense fog tonight as
we decouple and low-level moisture remains. Guidance continues
to indicate the most likely location for fog would be from dc
and to the ne.

Short term /Tuesday through Wednesday/
Another warm day tomorrow as moisture/warmth pools ahead of
cold front. SPC continues to delineate the southern half (i.E.,
from dc south) and east of the blue ridge in a marginal risk
for severe weather. While CAPE is higher tomorrow (e.G.,
~500-800 j/kg MLCAPE with the higher amounts to the south) shear
is also considerably less (i.E., ~20-25 knots). Thus, expect
the possibility of a few poorly-organized marginally-severe
thunderstorms across the risk area. Any threats expected to be
isolated and confined to damaging wind gusts and small hail.

Chances for precipitation should be ending late Tuesday evening
as the shortwave moves off the coast and cold front pulls away
from the area. High pressure returns Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Temperatures Wednesday cool nearly ten degrees from Tuesday (though
still remain above normal).

Long term /Wednesday night through Monday/
Thursday starts out dry as a high pressure builds into the ne
conus. Meanwhile, a strong closed low will be moving northeast
from the southern plains and into the mid-atlantic. This system
will bring decent amounts of moisture into the region, with
rain starting Thursday night and remain into sometime Saturday.

Many GEFS members bring the highest QPF amounts on Friday night.

Conditions become dry behind this system Saturday and into
Monday. High temperatures will be in the 50s and 60s, and lows
in the 40s.

Aviation /18z Monday through Saturday/
Vfr expected through the remainder of today... With perhaps a
passing shower or thunderstorm this afternoon. Chance is too
low to include in the taf... But most likely terminals would be
iad/dca/cho. Dense fog is also possible at some of the
terminals overnight. Best chances for fog or low clouds at
iad/mtn/bwi/dca. Kept tafs at ifr for now... Though if fog does
occur there could be some sub-ifr conditions.

A chance for thunderstorms returns to the terminals Tuesday
afternoon... With the possibility of gusty winds and small hail
in the strongest storms. Conditions should improve late Tuesday
evening through Wednesday with the return ofVFR as high
pressure builds into the area.

Dry/vfr conditions expected for Thursday before rain approaches
over the area Thursday night, possibly bringing sub-vfr
conditions over the terminals Friday into early Saturday.

Marine
Sca currently in effect for the southern portion of the waters
through late afternoon. In addition, there is a low probability
of an isolated thunderstorm with gusty winds late this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will again be possible Tuesday afternoon, some of
which could produce smw-level winds. Wind gusts will then
increase Tuesday night into Wednesday behind frontal
passage... With SCA possible as early as early Wednesday
morning... But likely during the day Wednesday. Winds expected to
diminish later Wednesday.

Dry conditions expected for Thursday before rain approaches over
the area Thursday night bringing showers over the waters into part
of Saturday. Wind gusts will be near the small craft advisory
threshold mainly Friday night into Saturday... Therefore SCA possible
at times.

Lwx watches/warnings/advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for anz533-
534-537-541>543.

Synopsis... Mse
near term... Mse
short term... Mse
long term... Imr
aviation... Imr/mse
marine... Imr/mse


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 21 mi39 min ENE 1 G 4.1 69°F 49°F1012.7 hPa
NCDV2 22 mi39 min S 4.1 G 5.1 73°F 53°F1012.4 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 30 mi117 min ESE 5.1 72°F 1013 hPa57°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 43 mi27 min S 5.8 G 5.8 53°F 48°F1013.9 hPa (-1.1)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 46 mi39 min E 5.1 G 5.1 55°F 48°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 47 mi27 min N 2.9 G 2.9 58°F 46°F55°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 47 mi39 min S 11 G 12 54°F 1014 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 47 mi39 min 58°F 1013.1 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi39 min S 8.9 G 8.9

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA8 mi31 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy61°F53°F75%1013.2 hPa
Fort Belvoir, VA9 mi29 minVar 310.00 miOvercast71°F54°F57%1013.2 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA17 mi31 minN 010.00 mi0°F0°F%1012.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA19 mi32 minS 410.00 miFair72°F55°F56%1014.2 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA20 mi35 minENE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F57°F68%1013.3 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD24 mi29 minE 510.00 miA Few Clouds64°F55°F73%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from NYG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE6E6NE5E6E6E4NE3NE3E5E3NE4SE3CalmSE3SW5S3CalmSE5S7SW8S4S6SW6SW7
1 day agoSW6S7SW7S5SW7NE15NE12NE9E10E10E9E8E7E8E6E7NE8NE9E9SE7E6E8E6E7
2 days agoSW10SW8
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S8SW7S10S6S7SW6S6S10S12S5S11S11S9S12S6SW5SW5

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
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Mon -- 01:25 AM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:08 AM EDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:54 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:33 PM EDT     1.79 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.20.10.10.40.91.41.71.81.71.410.60.30.100.20.61.11.61.81.81.51.20.8

Tide / Current Tables for Gunston Cove, Virginia
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Gunston Cove
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:59 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:42 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:28 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Mon -- 10:59 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.20.10.20.71.422.32.321.61.10.60.30.10.10.41.11.72.12.32.11.71.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.