Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Indian Head, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:27PM Monday May 29, 2017 11:40 PM EDT (03:40 UTC) Moonrise 8:52AMMoonset 11:17PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Rest of tonight..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms through the night.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 1032 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A surface boundary will stall across the waters this afternoon and weaken by tonight. Another weak front will approach late Tuesday...also stalling and weakening. A third cold front will finally push through Wednesday night, with high pressure following on Thursday. A warm front will lift northward on Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Indian Head, MD
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location: 38.62, -77.2     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 300125 aaa
afdlwx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
925 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
Upper level low pressure will drift east across the north side
of the great lakes this week. In the meantime, weak high
pressure will prevail over the mid atlantic outside of weak
cold frontal passages Tuesday night and Wednesday night. Low
pressure approaches from the west this weekend.

Near term through Tuesday
Primary forecast challenge tonight remains timing the return of
marine wedge back into the area. This will occur as easterly onshore
flow continues to be reestablished to the north of a quasi-
stationary surface low across southern northern va nc. While
mid high clouds are somewhat obscuring the western extent of the
marine layer... Advanced GOES microphysical products and
ceilometer data indicate gradual westward motion... With marine
layer beginning to impact portions of the western chesapeake
bay coastline... Even reaching bwi over the past few minutes.

Low clouds will continue shifting westward overnight banking up
against the blue ridge through morning. Some spotty drizzle is
also possible overnight.

Previous discussion...

Tuesday morning will be a struggle to erode marine air mass
once again. That will impede afternoon thunderstorm development.

However, the right rear quad of the upper jet, differential
heating, and another surface boundary supported by a 500 mb
shortwave should provide the catalyst for scattered if not
numerous showers. Guidance generating enough CAPE west of the
maritime layer to justify including chance thunder.

Short term Tuesday night through Wednesday night
We will have one more front with shortwave support to contend
with... This time late Wednesday. Have not made many changes to
the database in association with this feature (still chance
pops). In keeping with this pattern, have been reserved in use
of thunder. Clouds should be numerous in advance of the front.

One difference though is that this time it appears as though we
will have a decent push of drier air behind the front, to
support clearing skies Wednesday night.

Decent consistency in guidance temps. Have not strayed far from
an ensemble blend.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Thu is looking like a very pleasant day with canadian high pressure
settling in over the region for the first time in quite awhile.

Plentiful sunshine and highs near or even slightly cooler than
normal for the first day of june. It will be short lived however. By
Saturday morning the next cold front is slowing as it approaches
us from the north early Saturday. It will likely stall over or very
close to us over the weekend, with low pressure riding along west to
east across it and over us Sunday.

Aviation 01z Tuesday through Saturday
Marine layer spreads inland overnight. MVFR has already returned
to bwi mtn... And have high confidence marine layer will continue
westward... Reaching most sites (though maybe not mrb cho).

However, questions revolve around timing. Current tafs a bit on
the conservative side... Currently have restrictions just for the
morning push... Though, it could be sooner.

Erosion Tuesday will be a challenge as well. Restrictions will
into mid morning if not later. Then, afternoon showers and
thunderstorms a good possibility. These flight restrictions
should be brief.

Wouldn't rule out more fog-related restrictions early wed
morning, followed by another round of possible thunderstorms wed
afternoon.

Vfr likely for rest of week.

Marine
Flow pattern should be light for most of the week. Bigger
concern would be fog tonight into Tue morning. Lesser chance tue
night into Wed morning. By late Wednesday, a cold front should
dry airmass out.

There could also be a few thunderstorms each afternoon through
Wednesday, although not likely strong.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels remain high and should continue to be above normal for
the next couple of days due to the persistent onshore flow.

Coastal flood advisories are in place for washington dc and st.

Marys for the ongoing high tide cycle, which is the lower of
the next two cycles. The advisory for st. Marys continues
through Tuesday. A coastal flood advisory will be issued shortly
for annapolis and solomons (i.E., once they pass current high
tide cycle)... As it appears likely they will reach minor flood
stage for the morning high tide cycle.

It is also likely that additional advisories will be needed for
high tide cycles through Wednesday for the sensitive locations,
and possibly elsewhere. By Thursday, northwesterly flow as high
pressure builds in should finally allow anomalies to drop.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Coastal flood advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for dcz001.

Md... Coastal flood advisory until midnight edt Tuesday night for
mdz017.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Hts
near term... Mse hts
short term... Hts
long term... Cas
aviation... Mse hts
marine... Hts
tides coastal flooding... Mse mm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 20 mi41 min E 1.9 G 6 71°F 67°F1016.5 hPa (+2.6)
NCDV2 22 mi41 min ESE 14 G 19 69°F 74°F1016 hPa (+2.1)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 28 mi131 min SE 6 68°F 1016 hPa65°F
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 42 mi21 min SE 14 G 16 67°F 1018.1 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 45 mi41 min ESE 12 G 13 64°F 66°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 45 mi41 min SE 14 G 18 65°F 69°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 46 mi41 min S 18 G 20 65°F 1018.2 hPa (+2.5)
44063 - Annapolis 46 mi21 min SE 12 G 14 63°F 1017.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 46 mi41 min 64°F 1017.1 hPa (+2.4)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi41 min SSE 17 G 19

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA8 mi1.7 hrsSE 310.00 miFair68°F62°F83%1016.2 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA9 mi45 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy72°F68°F87%1017 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA18 mi45 minSE 310.00 miFair67°F62°F84%1017.3 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA19 mi49 minESE 610.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1016.9 hPa
Stafford, Stafford Regional Airport, VA20 mi66 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy65°F65°F100%1017.6 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD23 mi1.7 hrsESE 910.00 miFair69°F65°F88%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS5SE3SE6S4W8NW11NW10NW6CalmCalmCalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5NE3CalmSE4E4CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3S5S3SE5E3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:47 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:52 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 11:13 PM EDT     1.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.51.10.70.40.20.10.30.81.41.8221.71.410.60.3000.30.81.31.71.8

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Potomac River, Maryland
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Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:29 AM EDT     2.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:16 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
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2.52.11.50.90.50.20.20.61.32.12.62.92.92.51.91.30.80.300.10.61.322.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.