Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mason Neck, VA
May 7, 2024 3:54 AM EDT (07:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:01 AM Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 4:31 AM Moonset 6:58 PM |
ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 133 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Overnight - Light winds. Waves 1 ft or less. Scattered showers with isolated tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue - E winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night - SE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Thu night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Sat - NW winds 10 kt - .becoming s. Waves 1 ft.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 133 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay -
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
multiple disturbances will pass through the area over the course of the week bringing showers and Thunderstorms. High pressure and drier conditions return for the upcoming weekend. Small craft advisories may be needed for portions of the waters Wednesday through Friday.
Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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FXUS61 KLWX 070123 AFDLWX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active weather pattern will continue throughout this week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may contain heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. A strong cold front looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday bringing an increased threat for flooding and severe weather. Decreasing rain chances and cooler conditions are expected as high pressure returns this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Shortwave trough is located over the area this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms pivoting eastward across the area. Activity has been stratifying and evaporating with north/east extent due to relatively drier air and lower instability. The threat for heavy rain/flooding appears to be diminishing. The bulk of this activity will push to the east in the next few hours, but some showers could linger into the night with a lingering boundary across the area and some elevated instability. Will also have to monitor current convection in western West Virginia, as any remnant activity could reach the area during the second half of the night.
Areas of fog are possible again during the second half of the night. Some guidance indicates dense fog, but this may be contingent on breaks in the clouds. Lows overnight tonight should generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s in the mountains. Dewpoint values will remain in the 60s leading to a muggy feel.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather threat remains low. Tuesday will feature brief mid-level ridging which should suppress convection briefly before an approaching trough reignites the threat Wednesday into Thursday.
Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized Tuesday given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region. More of a focus turns toward Tuesday night as a complex of storms will eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it's decaying phase as it works eastward heading into Wednesday morning and could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. EVen with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge. The primary threat for storms over the next two days will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as a wave of low pressure develops over the area Thursday, then quickly pushes northeast Thursday night. This is followed by a passing cold front Friday. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to cross the area, especially Thursday afternoon/evening.
Starting Thursday morning, widespread showers and storms are likely to be ongoing around sunrise over the western half of the area as a complex of storms from WV moves eastward. This early day convection wanes and mostly dissipates by late morning. The big uncertainty for Thursday will be how much instability can develop in the afternoon, before the next round of storms develops. The ingredients are there for severe storms to develop if we get instability that can combine with forcing for ascent from the passing upper trough to the north and bulk shear of 40-50 knots. SPC has placed areas east of the Blue Ridge on a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe storms. Lingering showers/storms Thursday evening dissipate after midnight, with mostly dry and slightly muggy conditions overnight.
A cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon, bringing another round of scattered showers and storms. Surface high pressure builds into the area Friday night into Saturday, possibly bringing the first day of mostly dry conditions areawide. Another reinforcing upper trough moves through Saturday night into Sunday, maybe bringing some scattered showers to the Alleghenies into northern MD.
Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday drop to slightly below normal values Friday into the weekend, with upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows follow the same pattern, dropping to the 40s to low 50s over the weekend.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Earlier convective activity has been stratifying, so thunderstorm mentions have been removed from the TAFs. Generally light showers are expected through midnight or so. Additional scattered showers are possible overnight due to a weak front lingering across the area, but any impacts are tough to pinpoint at this time.
MVFR ceilings have also been more persistent than most guidance indicated, although there may be a brief period of lifting late this evening before conditions deteriorate overnight. IFR ceilings and fog both appear possible again late tonight into Tuesday morning. Some of the fog could be dense (1/4SM). Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected again on Tuesday, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again. Have made a mention of VCTS once again.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually decreases on Wednesday with slightly drier air underneath westerly downsloping flow. The threat is non zero with the highest confidence for a thunderstorm mainly at terminals along and south of I-66/US-50.
Light and variable winds are expected through Tuesday. Winds will turn to the west Wednesday and may gusts 15-20 knots.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Southwest winds Thursday afternoon could gust to 15-20 knots at times. A cold front sweeps through Friday, causing winds to become northwest in the morning. Gusty winds of 20-25 knots possible Friday afternoon
MARINE
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters through Tuesday. No marine hazards are expected outside of diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening with a better focus Tuesday night. Winds will turn westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.
SCA conditions are possible over most of the local waters Thursday and Friday due to southerly channeling. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings likely needed as storms move through in the afternoon.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Light winds over the next day or so will keep tide levels lower, with most locations peaking in Action Stage during high tide. The only issues could be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 923 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024
SYNOPSIS
An active weather pattern will continue throughout this week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Storms may contain heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and small hail. A strong cold front looks to cross the region Thursday into Friday bringing an increased threat for flooding and severe weather. Decreasing rain chances and cooler conditions are expected as high pressure returns this weekend.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Shortwave trough is located over the area this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms pivoting eastward across the area. Activity has been stratifying and evaporating with north/east extent due to relatively drier air and lower instability. The threat for heavy rain/flooding appears to be diminishing. The bulk of this activity will push to the east in the next few hours, but some showers could linger into the night with a lingering boundary across the area and some elevated instability. Will also have to monitor current convection in western West Virginia, as any remnant activity could reach the area during the second half of the night.
Areas of fog are possible again during the second half of the night. Some guidance indicates dense fog, but this may be contingent on breaks in the clouds. Lows overnight tonight should generally be in the low-mid 60s, with upper 50s in the mountains. Dewpoint values will remain in the 60s leading to a muggy feel.
SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A stalled front nearby will maintain unsettled weather conditions heading into the middle of the workweek. Additional chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms exists each afternoon although the threat for organized severe weather threat remains low. Tuesday will feature brief mid-level ridging which should suppress convection briefly before an approaching trough reignites the threat Wednesday into Thursday.
Convection will be of the pulse variety or loosely organized Tuesday given abundant cloud cover/convective debris over the region. More of a focus turns toward Tuesday night as a complex of storms will eject out of the Ohio River Valley. This convection will be in it's decaying phase as it works eastward heading into Wednesday morning and could become a key player into how the severe weather and hydro threat pan out Wednesday afternoon.
On Wednesday, the instability in the atmosphere will be greater given a few more breaks in the clouds due in part to west to southwest flow. This will allow for some downsloping and compressional warming especially east of the Blue Ridge. The combination of downsloping flow and subtle subsidence in the wake of the decaying MCS Wednesday morning may inhibit a widespread severe threat especially along and north of the I-66/US-50 corridor. EVen with that said, scattered strong to severe storms remain possible with the biggest concerns west of Blue Ridge. The primary threat for storms over the next two days will be damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. Large hail up to 1" in diameter is also possible.
Temperatures will reach into the upper 70s and lower 80s on Tuesday.
Even warmer temperatures are expected on Wednesday, with highs reaching into the mid-upper 80s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week as a wave of low pressure develops over the area Thursday, then quickly pushes northeast Thursday night. This is followed by a passing cold front Friday. Expect several rounds of showers and thunderstorms to cross the area, especially Thursday afternoon/evening.
Starting Thursday morning, widespread showers and storms are likely to be ongoing around sunrise over the western half of the area as a complex of storms from WV moves eastward. This early day convection wanes and mostly dissipates by late morning. The big uncertainty for Thursday will be how much instability can develop in the afternoon, before the next round of storms develops. The ingredients are there for severe storms to develop if we get instability that can combine with forcing for ascent from the passing upper trough to the north and bulk shear of 40-50 knots. SPC has placed areas east of the Blue Ridge on a Day 4 Slight Risk for severe storms. Lingering showers/storms Thursday evening dissipate after midnight, with mostly dry and slightly muggy conditions overnight.
A cold front will cross the area Friday afternoon, bringing another round of scattered showers and storms. Surface high pressure builds into the area Friday night into Saturday, possibly bringing the first day of mostly dry conditions areawide. Another reinforcing upper trough moves through Saturday night into Sunday, maybe bringing some scattered showers to the Alleghenies into northern MD.
Afternoon highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Thursday drop to slightly below normal values Friday into the weekend, with upper 60s to lower 70s. Overnight lows follow the same pattern, dropping to the 40s to low 50s over the weekend.
AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Earlier convective activity has been stratifying, so thunderstorm mentions have been removed from the TAFs. Generally light showers are expected through midnight or so. Additional scattered showers are possible overnight due to a weak front lingering across the area, but any impacts are tough to pinpoint at this time.
MVFR ceilings have also been more persistent than most guidance indicated, although there may be a brief period of lifting late this evening before conditions deteriorate overnight. IFR ceilings and fog both appear possible again late tonight into Tuesday morning. Some of the fog could be dense (1/4SM). Gradual improvement back to VFR conditions is expected again on Tuesday, but afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible once again. Have made a mention of VCTS once again.
Shower and thunderstorm coverage gradually decreases on Wednesday with slightly drier air underneath westerly downsloping flow. The threat is non zero with the highest confidence for a thunderstorm mainly at terminals along and south of I-66/US-50.
Light and variable winds are expected through Tuesday. Winds will turn to the west Wednesday and may gusts 15-20 knots.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely on Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible in the afternoon to evening at all terminals. Outside of thunderstorm activity, VFR conditions are likely though abundant cloud cover will be in place across the area.
Southwest winds Thursday afternoon could gust to 15-20 knots at times. A cold front sweeps through Friday, causing winds to become northwest in the morning. Gusty winds of 20-25 knots possible Friday afternoon
MARINE
Light and variable winds are expected over the waters through Tuesday. No marine hazards are expected outside of diurnally driven scattered showers and thunderstorms. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely Tuesday afternoon and evening with a better focus Tuesday night. Winds will turn westerly on Wednesday, and may potentially near SCA levels across northern portions of the Bay.
SCA conditions are possible over most of the local waters Thursday and Friday due to southerly channeling. Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday, with Special Marine Warnings likely needed as storms move through in the afternoon.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Light winds over the next day or so will keep tide levels lower, with most locations peaking in Action Stage during high tide. The only issues could be at sensitive locations in Annapolis and Straits Point that could reach minor flood during high tide early Tuesday morning, and again early Wednesday morning. Southerly winds increase Wednesday and Thursday, which could result in additional coastal flooding as tide levels rise again.
LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
DC...None.
MD...None.
VA...None.
WV...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC | 16 mi | 54 min | 0G | 69°F | 70°F | 29.81 | ||
| NCDV2 | 23 mi | 54 min | 0G | 67°F | 67°F | 29.79 | ||
| BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD | 24 mi | 84 min | 0 | 65°F | 29.80 | 65°F | ||
| 44062 - Gooses Reef, MD | 38 mi | 42 min | SSW 7.8G | 62°F | 65°F | |||
| APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD | 41 mi | 54 min | 0G | 65°F | 69°F | 29.80 | ||
| TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD | 41 mi | 54 min | S 4.1G | 65°F | 29.84 | |||
| 44063 - Annapolis | 42 mi | 36 min | S 1.9G | 62°F | 63°F | 0 ft | ||
| COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD | 43 mi | 54 min | SE 5.1G | 66°F | 29.82 | |||
| SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD | 43 mi | 54 min | WSW 2.9G | 65°F | 64°F | 29.80 | ||
| CPVM2 | 46 mi | 54 min | 64°F | 64°F | ||||
| PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD | 48 mi | 54 min | N 2.9G |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDAA DAVISON AAF,VA | 5 sm | 28 min | calm | 3/8 sm | -- | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.79 | |
| KNYG QUANTICO MCAF /TURNER FIELD,VA | 14 sm | 27 min | SSW 04 | 7 sm | Overcast | Mist | 66°F | 64°F | 94% | 29.82 |
| KDCA RONALD REAGAN WASHINGTON NATIONAL,VA | 15 sm | 51 min | SW 03 | 10 sm | Overcast | 70°F | 66°F | 88% | 29.81 | |
| KADW JOINT BASE ANDREWS,MD | 18 sm | 15 min | calm | 8 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 66°F | 94% | 29.79 | |
| KHEF MANASSAS RGNL/HARRY P DAVIS FIELD,VA | 21 sm | 13 min | SSE 03 | 3 sm | Overcast | Lt Rain | 66°F | 29.81 |
Gunston Cove
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT 2.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:24 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:30 AM EDT 0.10 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:03 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM EDT 2.70 feet High Tide
Tue -- 02:24 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:00 PM EDT 2.25 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Gunston Cove, Virginia, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.4 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.1 |
| 3 am |
| 0.5 |
| 4 am |
| 1.1 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2.4 |
| 7 am |
| 2.7 |
| 8 am |
| 2.6 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.7 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.5 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 2.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 2.1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.1 |
Deep Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT 2.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 PM EDT 1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:46 AM EDT 0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT Moonrise
Tue -- 06:04 AM EDT Sunrise
Tue -- 06:43 AM EDT 2.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:40 PM EDT -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:16 PM EDT 1.81 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:57 PM EDT Moonset
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT Sunset
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Deep Point, Mattawoman Creek, Maryland, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.2 |
| 1 am |
| 0.1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.3 |
| 3 am |
| 0.8 |
| 4 am |
| 1.3 |
| 5 am |
| 1.8 |
| 6 am |
| 2.1 |
| 7 am |
| 2.2 |
| 8 am |
| 1.9 |
| 9 am |
| 1.5 |
| 10 am |
| 1.1 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.1 |
| 2 pm |
| 0 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.8 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Sterling, VA,
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