Saturday, September23, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Trappe, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:59PM Saturday September 23, 2017 5:56 PM EDT (21:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:07AMMoonset 8:14PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Rest of this afternoon..N winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Sun night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
ANZ500 431 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A ridge of high pressure will remain over the eastern united states through the first part of the week. Small craft advisories may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday as hurricane maria approaches north carolina. Refer to the latest statements from the national hurricane center for up-to-date information on hurricane maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trappe, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.08     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 232034
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
434 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

High pressure remains entrenched over the northeast before weakening
by the middle of the week. Hurricane maria will track northward over
the atlantic waters, approaching the coastal carolinas on Wednesday,
then curving out to sea on Thursday as a cold front passes through
the region. High pressure builds east to close out the week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
High pressure will remain nearby tonight and fair weather is
expected tonight. Under clear skies, temperatures will drop into the
low mid 60s in most areas. There could be a few patches of ground
fog overnight, confid in this is low however. I will keep it out of
the public fcst for now. Winds will be light and variable after

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The surface high will remain just west of the region Sunday while
the upper high remain overhead. A continuation of fair weather along
with very warm temperatures is expected. We expect high temperatures
to be around 90 degrees in many areas, a bit cooler at the shore and
in the poconos. Humidity levels will be a little higher, but overall
not too uncomfortable. Winds will be light from the NE during the
morning then E or SE during the afternoon.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Monday... Surface high remains over the region. As a result
expect continued dry and very warm weather. We could get close
to record highs at inland locations (see climate section for
the current record highs for those days). Forecast is a few
degrees above most guidance as the increasing thicknesses and
abundant sunshine should win out over the light northerly flow.

Closer to the coast however, a light onshore flow could temper
the warming trend.

Tuesday... Surface high weakens. As it does so, we could have
some showers develop, primarily diurnally driven (rain
associated with the low over eastern canada will stay well to
our northwest.

Wednesday... Depending on how close hurricane maria gets to the
outer banks during this period, we may see some outer rain bands
reach the coastal plains in our area. The center of maria is
expected to stay well to our south (by a few hundred miles)
through this period. Please see the forecast discussion from the
national hurricane center for the latest information on the

Thursday... There are two things to watch through this period. First,
the cold front still looks on track to propagate through our region
late Wednesday night into Thursday. That will bring us back to near
normal temperatures (although depending on how quickly it moves
through, we may not notice it until Friday). The other thing we will
be watching is the eventual track of maria. Nearly all guidance
continues to show the storm taking a hard turn to the right
during this period in response to the cold front moving off
shore. If this trend continues, even tropical storm force winds
should stay well south of our region.

Friday and Saturday... Cooler and drier air should settle in
over the region. Temperatures through this period are likely to
be near or slightly below normal (in stark contrast to the
beginning of the week).

Aviation 21z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

High pressure across the area will ensure a continuation ofVFR
conditions with few clouds through Sunday. Winds which are mostly
from the N this afternoon will decrease to less than 5 knots
overnight. Winds on Sunday may become NE or E by afternoon, but
remain under 10 knots. It appears to be too dry to support anything
more than patchy fog overnight. We will leave it out of the tafs


Monday... MostlyVFR conditions are expected.

Tuesday and wedensday... MostlyVFR conditions expected. There is a
chance for showers both days (if any showers move over a taf
site, MVFR or lower conditions are possible). Northeasterly
wind up to 10 kt possible.

Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift to northwesterly
winds and a slight chance for showers. Otherwise, mostlyVFR
conditions are expected.

We will continue with the SCA for hazardous seas across the
southern waters and drop it further north. The wave heights
continue to slowly decrease and are mostly around 3-4 ft north
and around 5 ft south attm. Guidance shows that this decreasing
trend will continue into the evening and then slowly reverse Sunday.

Eventually, the SCA flag will return to the northern waters later
Sunday when seas could reach 5 to 6 ft again. Overall, a long period
swell with the offshore tropical systems and some minor winds waves
too. Fair weather tonight and Sunday.


Monday through Wednesday... An SCA will likely be needed for the
entire period on the ocean waters as elevated seas due to
swells associated hurricane maria will be observed through this
time. Seas will gradually build to 8-12 feet by Wednesday. Gusts
up to 25 kt will be possible especially on the delaware coastal
waters Tuesday and Wednesday. Elevated waves will be possible
at the mouth of the delaware bay. Otherwise, winds and waves
should stay below SCA criteria on the bay.

Thursday... A cold front will bring a shift to northwesterly
winds and gusts above 25 kt likely on the atlantic coastal
waters. In addition, seas will likely still be elevated due to
swells from maria.

Rip currents...

swells from the remains of jose will continue today (generally
4 to 6 feet from the northeast with a period of 9-10 seconds),
but with time, swells from maria will become a bigger player
(generally 2-3 feet from the southeast with a period of 13-16
seconds). For this evening, this will create rather chaotic
surf. Based on reports we've had from local officials, we've
upgraded to a high threat for the formation of dangerous rip
currents today. If entering the surf zone, be especially
cautious today. Only swim in the presence of lifeguards beach
patrols, and heed the advice of local officials.

Sunday... A moderate risk for dangerous rip currents is expected
for Sunday.

Monday... A 5 or 6 foot SE swell of 15 seconds is expected to be
dominant and could result in a high risk.

Tuesday... An 8 foot 15 second swell should be dominant by that
time. If this trend continues, this would result in a high risk.

Wednesday... Around an 11 to 13 foot SE swell at 15 seconds. This
would mean a high risk.

Thursday the 28th... Still a 10 foot SE swell at 14 seconds. This
would mean a high risk.

Friday... Maybe down to 5 or 6 feet and a moderate or high risk.

Todays high temp of 89 at abe is the warmest there since august
22... When it reached 91. So far nothing higher than ydy at
phl ilg.

With high temperatures making a run at 90 Sunday and Monday across
portions of the region, some record high temperatures may be tied or
broken. The highest chances are for inland locations as onshore flow
may slightly temper the warming trend at acy and ged.

Here are the records for both days.

phl 95(1970)
ged-92(2010 and 1970)

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for njz014-

De... High rip current risk until 9 pm edt this evening for dez004.

Md... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 6 pm edt Sunday
for anz452>455.

Synopsis... Johnson
near term... O'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Johnson
aviation... Johnson o'hara
marine... Johnson o'hara
climate... 434p

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 6 mi38 min 85°F 78°F1018 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 19 mi26 min NNW 1.9 G 3.9 81°F 1017.9 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi38 min NNW 8 G 8.9 79°F 1018 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 25 mi56 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 81°F 76°F
CPVM2 28 mi38 min 83°F 69°F
44063 - Annapolis 29 mi26 min ENE 3.9 G 3.9 81°F 1016.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 30 mi38 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 83°F 78°F1017.2 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 31 mi38 min N 6 G 8.9 81°F 77°F1016.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 31 mi38 min 81°F 1016.6 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 34 mi146 min N 1.9 84°F 1017 hPa62°F
44043 - Patapsco, MD 38 mi26 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 81°F 1018.3 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 39 mi38 min N 2.9 G 5.1 82°F 76°F1017.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 44 mi38 min NNE 9.9 G 12
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 45 mi146 min N 6 84°F 1017 hPa64°F
44042 - Potomac, MD 45 mi26 min N 9.7 G 14 81°F 1016.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 45 mi38 min SE 6 G 6 81°F 1017 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD9 mi71 minVar 410.00 miFair84°F66°F55%1016.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi69 minNNE 610.00 miClear86°F62°F46%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CGE (wind in knots)
Last 24hrN8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN7CalmN3SW3CalmCalmCalmN55N7NW7NW4NW7NW7NW7NW6NW9
1 day agoNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N3N4CalmNE4N6N5NW7NW8NW9
2 days agoNW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmNW6N5N55NW6NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Sat -- 01:05 AM EDT     0.78 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 12:44 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sat -- 02:51 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:27 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 06:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:32 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 PM EDT     0.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:16 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.