Monday, December10, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baden, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:47PM Monday December 10, 2018 3:11 AM EST (08:11 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1257 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Overnight..N winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain through the night.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 4 ft after midnight. Rain.
ANZ500 1257 Am Est Mon Dec 10 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Low pressure will deepen east of cape hatteras overnight. High pressure will build across the waters from the ohio valley Monday through Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baden, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 100153
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
853 pm est Sun dec 9 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will pull away from the carolina coast tonight. A
second area of low pressure will develop offshore of the
carolinas Monday then move out to sea as high pressure builds in
from the ohio valley. This area of high pressure will retreat to
offshore of new england through the end of the week as a large
area of low pressure develops over the tennessee valley and
heads toward the region.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Low pressure now resides off the coast of CAPE hatteras with the
snow band now weakening and shrinking back off to the south east
across the region. Also seeing reports of rain sleet freezing
rain mixing in with the snow as warming occurs aloft, and this
is also confirmed by dual-pol radar signatures. Thus have begun
the process of trimming back the ongoing warnings advisories to
where accumulating snow is still occurring, and will likely be
able to trim further over the next 1-3 hours, with all areas
ending by midnight.

Low pressure will then pull away tonight, with snow coming to
an end across all areas by midnight.

Low temperatures tonight will remain below normal, generally
from the upper teens to upper 20s. Skies should begin to clear
to the northwest very late.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Tuesday night
A secondary northern stream shortwave will dive to our south
Monday, with surface low pressure developing off the carolina
coast and heading out to sea. No impact is expected locally from
this system.

High pressure will follow, building in from the ohio valley into
Tuesday. Multiple shortwaves aloft will begin approaching from
the west well out ahead of long wave troughing deepening over
the central u.S. By later Tuesday, likely leading to an increase
in cloud cover.

Below normal temperatures are expected to persist early this
week, with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s (coldest Tuesday
night, especially if we have less mid high level cloud cover).

Long term Wednesday through Sunday
High pressure will become centered overhead and shortwave ridging
will move in aloft for Wednesday, resulting in mostly sunny skies
and light winds. High temperatures on Wednesday will be in the low-
mid 40s.

A decaying shortwave will approach the area from the southwest late
Wednesday night into Thursday. The GFS and euro differ by a fair
amount with respect to the track of this feature. The GFS brings it
across the central mississippi valley to near detroit by Thursday
morning, while the euro tracks the feature through the ohio valley
Wednesday night and toward the mason-dixon line Thursday morning.

The GFS solution would have minimal impacts on the area other than
producing clouds. The european solution would also produce cloud
cover, but with the disturbance closer by, it could also trigger a
few showers across western portions of the forecast area Wednesday
night. Very few ensemble solutions produce any precipitation
Wednesday night, so it appears that the euro is a bit of an outlier
at this point, though temperatures will be cold if precip does
occur during this time.

A more substantial trough will eject from the four corners region
onto the southern plains during the day Thursday. This trough will
become meridionally elongated in nature Thursday night, and
eventually cut itself off from the northern stream flow during the
day Friday as it tracks across the lower-mid mississippi valley.

Although there is some spread in the location of the trough amongst
model solutions, they are in good agreement that the trough will be
potent, with a well developed area of low pressure at the surface,
and a highly anomalous plume of moisture (gfs has precipitable water
values between +2 and +3 sigma) streaming northward ahead of the
system. The combination of strong forcing for ascent ahead of the
trough and the anomalously high moisture levels could lead to a
heavy rainfall event across the area Friday into Friday night. The
operational GFS and euro, as well as the ensemble means from the
gefs and eps all produce over an inch of precipitation with the
system.

With a strong area of high pressure departing off of new england at
the start of the event, some brief wintry precipitation can't be
ruled out at precipitation's onset late Thursday night or early
Friday morning, but it appears that most of the precipitation should
fall in the form of rain. Some wintry precipitation also can't be
ruled out Saturday morning on the back side of the system underneath
the upper low in upslope westerly flow. There is also a non-
zero chance the storm tries to spawn a secondary low along the
coast during this time.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Vfr expected through Tuesday, except in central va INVOF cho
where ifr continues this evening in snow. Improvement there
after 03z tonight is expected as well.

Light north flow is expected the next few days, generally 10 kts
or less.

MainlyVFR conditions are likely Wednesday and Thursday as a few
weak system cross. Condtions may deteriorate to sub-vfr by
Friday as the next system approaches.

Marine
Sca for middle lower tidal potomac and most of the md portion of
the chesapeake bay south of the bay bridge tonight, scaling back
a touch before diminishing entirely by around midday Monday as
the gradient northerly channeling weaken and high pressure
builds. Light winds are then expected through Tuesday.

Winds are expected to be light on Wednesday and Thursday with
surface high pressure located overhead.

Climate
Rainfall totals continue to creep upward, with baltimore
setting the annual record already. Here are the current rankings
for wettest year on record (through december 5th):
washington dc area (dca)
1. 61.33 inches (1889)
2. 60.83 inches (2003)
3. 60.78 inches (2018)
4. 60.09 inches (1878)
weather records for the washington dc area have been kept at
what is now ronald reagan washington national airport (dca)
since 1945. Precipitation records observed downtown extend the
period of record back to 1871.

Baltimore md area (bwi)
1. 65.67 inches (2018)
2. 62.66 inches (2003)
weather records for the baltimore md area have been kept at
what is now baltimore-washington international thurgood marshall
airport (bwi) since 1950. Precipitation records observed
downtown extend the period of record back to 1871.

Dulles va area (iad)
1. 65.67 inches (2003)
2. 61.30 inches (2018)
3. 59.05 inches (1972)
weather records have been kept at what is now washington dulles
international airport (iad) since 1960.

Note: all climate data are considered preliminary until
reviewed by the national centers for environmental information
(ncei).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for mdz017.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for mdz016-
018.

Va... Winter storm warning until midnight est tonight for vaz025-
036>039-050-055>057-508.

Winter weather advisory until midnight est tonight for vaz051-
052-502.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Monday for anz536-540.

Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Monday for anz532>534-537-
541>543.

Synopsis... Dhof
near term... Mm dhof
short term... Dhof
long term... Kjp
aviation... Mm dhof kjp
marine... Mm dhof kjp
climate... WFO lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 8 mi102 min N 1.9 31°F 1019 hPa21°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi72 min N 15 G 18 33°F 41°F1019.6 hPa (-1.5)21°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 23 mi42 min N 4.1 G 8.9 32°F 41°F1019.7 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi42 min N 12 G 17 35°F 1018.8 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 25 mi42 min 32°F 1018.4 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 26 mi42 min NNW 7 G 11 34°F 43°F1018.2 hPa
CPVM2 28 mi42 min 33°F 21°F
NCDV2 30 mi48 min N 2.9 G 7 30°F 40°F1018.4 hPa
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi42 min 33°F 39°F1018.4 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 37 mi48 min N 5.1 G 6
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi42 min N 7 G 8 31°F 1019.2 hPa
FSNM2 39 mi48 min N 8 G 11 30°F 1018.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi42 min NE 8 G 11 31°F 43°F1019 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi42 min NNE 13 G 16 32°F 39°F1019.4 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi42 min N 8.9 G 13 33°F 38°F1018.1 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi42 min NNE 16 G 19 36°F 1017 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 47 mi48 min NNE 7 G 9.9 36°F 39°F1018 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD15 mi16 minNNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy29°F17°F62%1019.6 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA23 mi20 minN 810.00 miMostly Cloudy32°F17°F54%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4N3NE5N4N3NE5NE4N6NE8NE7N8N8NE7NE6NE7N10N10N9N8N9N6N9N8N5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W9NW11NW9
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2 days agoW5W6NW4N8NW7N10N12NW11NW12W14W7W11
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Tide / Current Tables for Lower Marlboro, Maryland
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Lower Marlboro
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:36 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EST     1.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:05 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:57 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.20.40.711.21.10.90.50.2-0.1-0.2-0.10.20.61.21.72.12.22.11.81.410.6

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Mon -- 12:01 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     0.27 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:58 AM EST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:54 PM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:30 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:50 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 08:56 PM EST     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.