Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Baden, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 5:51PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:48 PM EST (19:48 UTC) Moonrise 9:04AMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle with a slight chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain through the night.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will approach from the south this afternoon before passing through later tonight through Tuesday morning. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected behind the boundary later Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday night into Thursday and it will remain stalled to our south through Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Baden, MD
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location: 38.66, -76.68     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 191537
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1037 am est Mon feb 19 2018

Synopsis
A warm front will approach the area from the south today before
passing through later tonight through Tuesday morning. Record
warmth is possible behind this system for Tuesday and Wednesday.

A cold front pass through the area Thursday before stalling out
nearby during the end of the week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
A warm frontal zone is crossing the region today, resulting in
plenty of clouds, but most showers have now passed.

Main area of rain late this morning is now east of the region.

Lingering spotty showers are possible through the remainder of
the morning into the early afternoon, but for the most part, it
looks relatively dry.

Temperatures will rise slowly through the day, with highs being
reached late today under low clouds and as southerly flow kicks
in, reaching the upper 40s across NE md to mid upper 50s across
parts of WV and central western va.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Wednesday night
Southerly flow and increasing low level moisture will continue
tonight. This will keep temperatures considerably milder with
lows from the mid 40s to low 50s. Low clouds and some fog are
also possible.

An anomalously strong upper level ridge (heights 2-3 sd above
climatology for february) will become positioned near the
southeastern us coastline from Tuesday and through the end of
the week. This will set the stage for near-record or record
warmth for Tuesday and Wednesday across the region.

Some lower clouds and patchy fog are possible Tuesday morning,
especially from the i-95 corridor eastward, but as southwesterly
flow increases throughout the day, breaks of Sun become likely,
especially across western areas. As 850 mb temperatures reach
12c and 925 mb temperatures surge to 14-15c, high temperatures
are likely to soar through the 70s area-wide, with some
locations possibly nearing 80f in central va and west of the
blue ridge. Dry weather is expected. Southwesterly flow
continues Tuesday night, and temperatures will only drop into
the 50s.

Wednesday will likely end up being the warmest day for many
locations as a cold front approaches the region from the west.

Some shower activity is possible in the afternoon as well west
of the blue ridge. With 850 mb temperatures warming to 12-14c
and 925 mb possibly reaching 17c or higher, widespread upper 70s
to near 80f are forecast. This, in addition to the daily lows,
will be approaching 30 degrees above climatological normals for
the date (49 32f at dca). Daily record high maxes and minimums
are all likely in jeopardy, with all-time february highest
minimums also possible.

The cold front will cross the region Wednesday night, with
increasing chances of rain showers. Temperatures by Thursday
morning drop back into the 40s 50s.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
A cold front will continue to drop to our south Thursday before
stalling out Thursday night. High pressure will build to our
north this time and a north to northeast flow will usher in a
return of seasonably chillier conditions. A wave of low pressure
may develop along the front as well... Likely bringing some rain
to the area during this time.

The boundary will return north as a warm front Friday but it may
stall out near our area for Saturday before a stronger cold
front from the west passes through later Sunday Sunday night.

Unsettled weather is likely during this time. Temperature
forecasts are with low confidence since there is uncertainty as
to exactly where the front will set up. The boundary will
separate much cooler marine air from unseasonably warm
conditions. Will continue with the superblend which keeps cooler
conditions for most areas Friday thinking that the boundary
remains to our south but is warmer for Saturday and Sunday when
there is a better chance for the front to move a bit farther
north.

Aviation 16z Monday through Friday
Low clouds and some showers have been crossing the region along
a warm frontal zone. Bwi mtn dca cho are the sites with the
highest risk of seeing ifr, but MVFR should predominate
tonight into Tuesday morning, potential for additional low
clouds and fog exists, with ifr conditions possible.

Bwi mtn cho dca once again most at risk to be impacted by sub-
vfr conditions. As southwesterly flow increases aloft, low level
wind shear also becomes more likely overnight.

Any low clouds and fog should lift by Tuesday afternoon, andVFR
is then expected through Wednesday. Additional sub-vfr
conditions become possible as a cold front crosses the region
Wednesday night bringing chances of rain showers. Gusty
southwest winds will develop both Tuesday and Wednesday
afternoons.

A cold front will stall out to the south later Thursday through
Thursday night. Low pressure will develop along the boundary
during this time... Likely bringing rain to the area along with
subvfr CIGS vsbys. The boundary will return north as a warm
front Friday. At this time... It appears that the terminals will
still be on the cool side of the boundary... Resulting low clouds
along with a chance for rain drizzle and ifr conditions.

Marine
Winds will remain below SCA criteria today and through Tuesday
morning. As southerly flow increases Tuesday afternoon, winds
will increase, and small craft advisories have been issued.

With warm air temperatures expected over considerably cooler
waters, the strongest gusts will likely be observed along the
shorelines, with lower gusts over the wider and more open parts
of the bay and potomac. The same situation will occur
Wednesday.

A cold front will drop to our south Thursday before stalling out
Thursday night. A small craft advisory may be needed for
portions of the waters Thursday. The boundary will return north
as a warm front Friday but it should remain to our south during
this time. This means that an onshore flow is likely.

Climate
Some all-time february highest minimum temp records could be in
jeopardy, but it depends on how quickly a cold front moves
through Wednesday night.

If the Wednesday calendar day low does not drop below 60
degrees, it would be the first time not dropping below 60 at
dca in february since 1891, and only the sixth time on record in
the entire meteorological winter season. Even a low 56 or
higher at dca would be the warmest low in the month of february
since 1976.

The all-time february highest minimums are:
61 at dca washington (2 17 1891)
58 at bwi baltimore (2 17 1891)
55 at iad dulles (2 17 1976)
- records only go back to 1960 at iad
it almost GOES without saying that daily records are in jeopardy. A
table of those records follows:
record warm daily maximum temperatures
tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 76 (1930) 75 (1953)
bwi 76 (1930) 74 (1930)
iad 70 (1971) 70 (1997)
record warm daily minimum temperatures
tue 2 20 Wed 2 21
dca 59 (1939) 51 (1954)
bwi 57 (1939) 49 (1981)
iad 46 (1981) 45 (1981)

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... None.

Va... None.

Wv... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 10 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for
anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bjl
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Mm
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl mm rcm
marine... Bjl mm rcm
climate... Lwx


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi38 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 41°F 1029.5 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi48 min S 7 G 7 40°F 38°F
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 23 mi48 min SSW 4.1 G 7 42°F 42°F1029.6 hPa (-2.5)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 24 mi48 min S 5.1 G 6 41°F 1030 hPa (-2.8)
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 25 mi48 min 43°F 1028.5 hPa (-3.0)
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 26 mi48 min E 5.1 G 5.1 42°F 40°F1029 hPa (-2.6)
CPVM2 28 mi48 min 40°F 40°F
NCDV2 30 mi48 min ESE 1.9 G 1.9 43°F 43°F1028.5 hPa (-2.5)
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 33 mi48 min 51°F 44°F1030.1 hPa (-2.8)
FSNM2 39 mi60 min SSE 5.1 G 7 42°F 1028.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 39 mi48 min E 4.1 G 4.1 42°F 1029.2 hPa (-2.9)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 42 mi48 min SSE 1 G 2.9 42°F 39°F1028.8 hPa (-2.9)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 45 mi48 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 40°F1029.2 hPa (-3.1)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi48 min W 2.9 G 2.9 43°F 44°F1029.8 hPa (-2.7)
44042 - Potomac, MD 47 mi38 min WNW 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 1028.7 hPa
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 47 mi48 min SW 2.9 G 2.9 51°F 44°F1029.1 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Washington, DC
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD15 mi52 minS 62.75 miFog/Mist44°F42°F95%1029.3 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA23 mi56 minS 72.50 miFog/Mist44°F43°F96%1029.6 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNW4CalmSE6E6SE5SE6SE6SE7SE9SE10S4S4S3S4S5S4S5S7S6S7S4S6
1 day agoE5NE4--SE5SE5SE5S5SW3CalmS4SW6NW4W6W5CalmS3S3CalmCalmSW3NW11NW8W9N6
2 days agoNW13
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NW17NW12NW12NW9N8N7N6N6N4NE5NE4E7E7SE7SE7SE8E8

Tide / Current Tables for Lower Marlboro, Patuxent River, Maryland
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Lower Marlboro
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:22 AM EST     0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:19 AM EST     2.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:45 PM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:30 PM EST     1.99 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:42 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.20.511.51.9221.71.30.90.50.30.20.40.91.41.8221.81.40.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Mon -- 02:34 AM EST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:59 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:56 AM EST     -0.41 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:03 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:58 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:42 PM EST     0.34 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:48 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:52 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:05 PM EST     -0.47 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.30.40.40.30.2-0-0.2-0.4-0.4-0.3-0.200.20.30.30.30.1-0-0.2-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.