Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Topaz, CA
May 5, 2024 10:27 PM PDT (05:27 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:54 AM Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 4:28 AM Moonset 5:24 PM |
FXUS65 KREV 052121 AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 221 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A northwesterly flow increasing aloft will draw in cooler, and drier air today into Monday. Shower chances return Monday mostly north of the Lake Tahoe basin to the Nevada and Oregon border. Dry weather remains for the rest of the week along with a slight warming trend and lighter winds as higher pressure builds into the western US.
DISCUSSION
Some impressive snowfall totals for the Sierra for the first weekend of May. The Sierra overnight received 1-2 feet of new snow across higher terrain areas and areas around the west side of of the Tahoe Basin received as much as a foot of the white cold stuff as well.
With the warming surface temperatures, and the colder air aloft, the instability will bring increased shower chances (30-50%) over northeast CA and northwest NV that swings into the Basin and Range late this afternoon before dissipating an hour or two after sundown.
A short wave trough that will quickly swing over the region backdoor- like Monday will bring another round of increased shower chances(up to 30%) late AM through the afternoon with showers holding closer to the OR border areas of NE-CA, and NW-NV.
Otherwise, the only notable impacts after today will be the colder temperatures, breezy northwest winds, and patchy freezing fog in some Sierra valleys Monday into Tuesday.
* As our post-winter Spring storm continues on it's easterly track, a northwest flow aloft will not only bring drier conditions to the region but also will spread a colder air-mass across the Sierra into Mono County and the Great Basin as a whole for the next 36-48 hours. The daytime highs that struggled to break into the 40’s over most mountain valleys, and into the lower 50’s over western Nevada locales will ensure overnight lows followup on the below seasonal temperature trend as well.
Look for overnights lows diving into the upper teens and 20’s for Sierra valleys with a 60- 70% chance for lows dropping below freezing under clearer skies into the high 20's to low 30's for a few hours early Monday morning. It’s advised to take precautions to protect sensitive plants, pets, people and pipes as overnight lows will fall into freezing territory through Monday morning. We'll also see a repeat of these colder below average morning lows Tuesday morning with many locations across western NV dropping below the freezing mark once more.
* As high pressure struggles to build offshore the West Coast into western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and into our region, opportunistic upper troughs will continue to swing into region.
One such trough will bring enhanced west-northwest breezes into northeast CA, the Lake Tahoe basin, Mono County, and western NV Monday afternoon. Most areas will see west-northwest wind gusts peaking 30-40 mph during the afternoon, and then tapering off to less than 10 mph an hour or two after sundown. Tuesday will also be breezy to a lesser extent with most areas across western NV seeing gusts peaking to 30 mph from the north-northwest in the afternoon.
* There is up to a 25% chance for freezing fog developing in the Sierra and Martis valleys during the early morning hours Monday and Tuesday as well.
OUTLOOK: Through the later half of next week, the outlook does look a bit murky with blended guidance still continuing to project a gradual warming trend that includes continued dry conditions through next week. That being said, daytime highs look to rise at least into seasonal average by week's end with current cluster ensemble guidance is now favoring high pressure building strongly across the Pacific Northwest midweek into next weekend. There still remains, however, the uncertainty with placement of long-wave trough pattern that now includes a cut-off low dropping south that then shifting westward into the Great basin region by mid-week onward. At least this setup favors a blocking pattern over the western US. Even with the uncertainty, more Spring-like conditions may stay in place for the long haul. -Amanda
AVIATION
* An isolated snow shower may stray over Sierra terminals (KTRK- KTVL) through late this afternoon, and bring a brief period of MVFR conditions. Any remaining showers will dissipate shortly after sundown. VFR conditions will persist for Western NV terminals through the week.
* There will be an increased chance for patchy dense freezing fog forming around the Martis Valley after 08-10Z Monday and again Tuesday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 15-17Z. There is a 10-20% for brief periods of IFR-LIFR ceilings and visibility conditions at KTRK during this period.
* West-northwest winds with gusts to 20-30 kts winds all area terminals will diminish to less that 10 kts after 03-06Z. Look for brief periods of mountain wave turbulence to continue till 06Z tonight. Breezy northwest winds return Monday late morning and afternoon with gusts to 25kt. After 15Z Monday, FL100 winds increasing from the west-northwest 25-35 kts bring a good chance for turbulence and LLWS east of the Sierra crest into far western NV. -Amanda
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
CA...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 221 PM PDT Sun May 5 2024
SYNOPSIS
A northwesterly flow increasing aloft will draw in cooler, and drier air today into Monday. Shower chances return Monday mostly north of the Lake Tahoe basin to the Nevada and Oregon border. Dry weather remains for the rest of the week along with a slight warming trend and lighter winds as higher pressure builds into the western US.
DISCUSSION
Some impressive snowfall totals for the Sierra for the first weekend of May. The Sierra overnight received 1-2 feet of new snow across higher terrain areas and areas around the west side of of the Tahoe Basin received as much as a foot of the white cold stuff as well.
With the warming surface temperatures, and the colder air aloft, the instability will bring increased shower chances (30-50%) over northeast CA and northwest NV that swings into the Basin and Range late this afternoon before dissipating an hour or two after sundown.
A short wave trough that will quickly swing over the region backdoor- like Monday will bring another round of increased shower chances(up to 30%) late AM through the afternoon with showers holding closer to the OR border areas of NE-CA, and NW-NV.
Otherwise, the only notable impacts after today will be the colder temperatures, breezy northwest winds, and patchy freezing fog in some Sierra valleys Monday into Tuesday.
* As our post-winter Spring storm continues on it's easterly track, a northwest flow aloft will not only bring drier conditions to the region but also will spread a colder air-mass across the Sierra into Mono County and the Great Basin as a whole for the next 36-48 hours. The daytime highs that struggled to break into the 40’s over most mountain valleys, and into the lower 50’s over western Nevada locales will ensure overnight lows followup on the below seasonal temperature trend as well.
Look for overnights lows diving into the upper teens and 20’s for Sierra valleys with a 60- 70% chance for lows dropping below freezing under clearer skies into the high 20's to low 30's for a few hours early Monday morning. It’s advised to take precautions to protect sensitive plants, pets, people and pipes as overnight lows will fall into freezing territory through Monday morning. We'll also see a repeat of these colder below average morning lows Tuesday morning with many locations across western NV dropping below the freezing mark once more.
* As high pressure struggles to build offshore the West Coast into western Canada, the Pacific Northwest, and into our region, opportunistic upper troughs will continue to swing into region.
One such trough will bring enhanced west-northwest breezes into northeast CA, the Lake Tahoe basin, Mono County, and western NV Monday afternoon. Most areas will see west-northwest wind gusts peaking 30-40 mph during the afternoon, and then tapering off to less than 10 mph an hour or two after sundown. Tuesday will also be breezy to a lesser extent with most areas across western NV seeing gusts peaking to 30 mph from the north-northwest in the afternoon.
* There is up to a 25% chance for freezing fog developing in the Sierra and Martis valleys during the early morning hours Monday and Tuesday as well.
OUTLOOK: Through the later half of next week, the outlook does look a bit murky with blended guidance still continuing to project a gradual warming trend that includes continued dry conditions through next week. That being said, daytime highs look to rise at least into seasonal average by week's end with current cluster ensemble guidance is now favoring high pressure building strongly across the Pacific Northwest midweek into next weekend. There still remains, however, the uncertainty with placement of long-wave trough pattern that now includes a cut-off low dropping south that then shifting westward into the Great basin region by mid-week onward. At least this setup favors a blocking pattern over the western US. Even with the uncertainty, more Spring-like conditions may stay in place for the long haul. -Amanda
AVIATION
* An isolated snow shower may stray over Sierra terminals (KTRK- KTVL) through late this afternoon, and bring a brief period of MVFR conditions. Any remaining showers will dissipate shortly after sundown. VFR conditions will persist for Western NV terminals through the week.
* There will be an increased chance for patchy dense freezing fog forming around the Martis Valley after 08-10Z Monday and again Tuesday morning. Any fog will quickly dissipate by 15-17Z. There is a 10-20% for brief periods of IFR-LIFR ceilings and visibility conditions at KTRK during this period.
* West-northwest winds with gusts to 20-30 kts winds all area terminals will diminish to less that 10 kts after 03-06Z. Look for brief periods of mountain wave turbulence to continue till 06Z tonight. Breezy northwest winds return Monday late morning and afternoon with gusts to 25kt. After 15Z Monday, FL100 winds increasing from the west-northwest 25-35 kts bring a good chance for turbulence and LLWS east of the Sierra crest into far western NV. -Amanda
REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories
NV...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ004.
CA...None.
Reno, NV,
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