Wednesday, March29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:50AMSunset 7:26PM Wednesday March 29, 2017 7:09 AM EDT (11:09 UTC) Moonrise 7:04AMMoonset 8:22PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 431 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Rest of the overnight..N winds 15 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain with a chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 431 Am Edt Wed Mar 29 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build overhead through tonight before moving offshore Thursday. Low pressure will approach the waters Friday before passing through Friday night. High pressure will build over the waters during the weekend. Small craft advisories are possible Thursday night through Saturday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 290811
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
411 am edt Wed mar 29 2017

Synopsis
High pressure near hudson's bay will build into our region
through Wednesday night. Low pressure moving through the ohio
valley on Friday will redevelop near the new jersey coast
Friday night and move offshore on Saturday. High pressure
will move into the area for Sunday and Monday. Low pressure
over the ohio valley and its associated fronts will approach
our region on Tuesday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
Early this morning... Slow clearing. North to northwest wind 5-15
kt.

Today... Partly to mostly sunny with a gusty north to northwest
wind 10-25 mph. MAX t in phl today around 62-63f. Slightly above
normal MAX temps.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance and
the ec 2m temps which has 58 in phl at 2 pm. I usually add 4-5f
on a p-m/s day with decently mixing n-w wind.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 am Thursday/
Clear or mostly clear skies, a few fragments of sc in the early
eve and possibly a little cirrus. Some radiational cooling
expected. Light north wind. Normal or slightly below normal
mins.

Forecast basis: 50 50 blended 00z/29 gfs/nam MOS guidance.

Applied minor 1-2f cooler than guidance adjustments in our 330
am fcst for tonight.

Long term /Thursday through Tuesday/
The primary players during the long term will be two southern
stream systems that are expected to impact our region in the
Friday-Saturday and Tuesday time frames.

The first system may produce 1 to 1.5 inches of rain across
portions of the region, especially in the delaware valley. While
there could be some urban and poor drainage flooding, we do not
expect any major impacts on rivers and streams. There is also a
consistent signal in the models for mixed precip north of i-80,
with sleet and freezing rain the primary concerns, during the
Friday night and Saturday morning period. We have mentioned this
in the hwo.

Looking ahead to early next week, the next system is expected to
bring more precip to our region Monday night into Tuesday. This
setup looks warmer, given the absence of high latitude blocking,
and would favor predominantly rain.

Aviation /08z Wednesday through Sunday/
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Through 12z... Still some leftover ifr/MVFR conds which will be
improving toVFR sct clouds by 12z. North to northwest wind 5 to
15 kt.

After 12z...VFR sct-bkn near 4000 ft will becomeVFR clr by
21z. North to northwest wind gusty 20-25 kt.

Tonight...VFR with fragments of sc in the evening and maybe some
thin cirrus at times. Light north wind.

Outlook...

predominantlyVFR, except MVFR possible Friday into Saturday.

Marine
No headlines through tonight. Northerly flow becomes northwest
during the daylight hours with gusts 20 kt. A few gusts 25 kt
possible this evening in the nnj waters when we may need to
issue a short fuse sca, then northerly winds diminishing early
Thursday.

Outlook...

sca likely Friday into Saturday, with the potential for gale
force southeasterly wind gusts Friday night, mainly across the
northern nj waters. Otherwise, sub-sca.

Tides/coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be gradually diminishing through the
week now that we are past the new moon, the threat of minor tidal
flooding along the nj and de atlantic coasts increases late in the
week. This is a result of a low pressure system bringing a prolonged
period of onshore flow. The tide of most concern at this point
is the high tide on Friday evening/late Friday night. By this
tide cycle, it will take a surge of 0.8 to 1.0 feet to reach
minor flooding thresholds, which is possible but still uncertain
(it will be dependent on how quickly the on shore flow develops
and how strong it will be by then). At least one source of
guidance shows water levels reaching minor tidal flooding
thresholds with the Thursday evening/night high tide, but that
seems unlikely as the latest forecast depicts onshore flow
either developing right around or just after the time of that
high tide.

We have mentioned the potential of minor flooding along the
northern nj coast in the hwo, where the threat is greatest
during the Friday evening/late Friday night high tide cycle.

Climate
Mo avg temps
march dep feb dep
abe 38.0 -1.1 39.2 +8.5
acy 41.6 -0.6 43.0 +7.7
ilg 41.7 -1.3 43.1 +8.0
phl 42.2 -1.3 44.2 +8.5
first of all: this march will be a below normal month for
temps... . One of the very few the last two years.

Second, we appreciate that this is possibly old news, but march
temperatures will average colder than the feb average at all 4
long term climate locations. The last time this occurred, 1984.

Phi watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Franck
near term... Drag
short term... Drag
long term... Franck
aviation... Drag/franck
marine... Drag/franck
tides/coastal flooding...

climate... 410a


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi51 min N 6 G 7 54°F 49°F1016 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi39 min ENE 12 G 14 52°F 1017.4 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi69 min NNE 14 G 15 51°F 47°F46°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi51 min NNE 14 G 17 53°F 1017.2 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi51 min 50°F 46°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi51 min N 7 G 8 54°F 54°F1016.6 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi51 min 54°F 1016.8 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi51 min NNE 11 G 19 56°F 48°F
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 39 mi114 min 49°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi51 min N 16 G 17 50°F 48°F1017.7 hPa
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi51 min N 8.9 G 11 48°F 46°F1016.2 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi51 min N 12 G 16 53°F 1017.2 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi51 min N 15 G 19 53°F 1016.6 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi39 min NNE 7.8 G 7.8 53°F 1015.7 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi51 min NE 8.9 G 12

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi29 minN 810.00 miOvercast55°F50°F82%1016.9 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi19 minN 14 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F41°F63%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5SW8SW10SW4SW6S8SW7SW7--NW11N6N6CalmN4--NE5NE6NE4NE7N4N3N7NE6N14
G20
1 day agoNW4--SW4SW6SW9SW13--W8SW8SW6S8S5SE6S5S7S8S7S7S7S5SW6SW6S4S5
2 days agoE10
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E6E9E6E5E4E5E3CalmSE3SE4SE3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:26 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:06 AM EDT     2.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:52 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:36 PM EDT     1.82 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.10.411.62.12.32.21.81.40.90.50.2-000.40.91.41.81.81.61.20.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:32 AM EDT     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:41 AM EDT     2.40 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:25 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 08:11 PM EDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 09:22 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.10.10.40.81.422.32.42.11.71.20.60.2000.30.81.31.71.91.81.51

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.