Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:53AMSunset 8:27PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 12:13PMMoonset 11:55PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 132 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Overnight..N winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat..E winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely . Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 132 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. Canadian high pressure will dominate over the waters through Thursday before shifting off the new england coast on Friday. A low pressure system will approach from the west over the weekend, and a weak area of low pressure may move near the coast. Small craft advisories may be needed Saturday and Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 190111
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
911 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build in from the great lakes through Thursday
before moving offshore Friday. A low pressure system will move up
the coast on Saturday. Another low pressure system will meander over
the midwest region this weekend and then drift southward toward the
gulf coast region during the first half of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Forecast on track. No significant changes to the database.

High pressure to the west will continue to push wast overnight.

Clear skies tonight. It will be cool and dry with lows in the
low mid 50s across the north and upper 50s low 60s elsewhere.

Right along the shore and metro philadelphia may have lows the
mid 60s however. Winds will be light overnight.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
More fair weather is expected on Thursday as the high pressure
builds overhead. Under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will
climb into the low mid 80s in most areas. It will continue to be
comfortable too with low dew points. Winds will be light from
the NE or e. A sea breeze will likely develop across ERN nj de
with winds locally 10 to 15 mph behind it.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Thursday night through Friday night... Surface high pressure and
upper ridge will progress downstream of our area off the new england
coast late in the week as low pressure and associated upper trough
digs southeastward across the midwest. A secondary low is favored to
develop along the southeast u.S. Coast (near the base of the
negatively tilted trough) by late Friday. The primary low over the
midwest should remain far enough upstream of our area to keep us dry
through at least Friday evening. However, chances for showers and
storms were introduced late Friday night with the potential for the
leading edge of the precip shield from the secondary coastal low to
expand northward into our southern zones. Given uncertainty in both
the track of the low and arrival timing of the precip, pops were
kept very low (20-30 percent). E-se flow around the offshore high
will have a trajectory from the ocean, which should keep the heat in
check for the end of the work week- highs on Friday will generally
be in the mid 80s except upper 70s along the coast and at higher
elevations in NE pa and NW nj.

Saturday and Saturday night... The aforementioned coastal low is
forecast to move northward up the eastern seaboard. The sensible
weather will be dependent on the exact track of the low, which is
uncertain- models are still in disagreement and generally fall into
to camps. (1) a low track right along the mid-atlantic coast would
bring widespread rain to the forecast area on Saturday with a
reasonable worst-case scenario being a washout for portions of the
area that reside along and just east of the low track. (2) the other
scenario supported by nwp guidance is a low track that is far enough
offshore to keep the bulk of the precip shield off the coast.

Sunday... The upper trough is forecast to sharpen to our west as the
closed low digs southward through the midwest. Deep southerly flow
throughout the troposphere will continue to draw tropical moisture
(with pwats exceeding 2") poleward up the eastern seaboard on
Sunday. Models show a warm front lifting northward through the
region. The boundary could provide a focus for convective
development during peak heating on Sunday. This setup warrants
concern for locally heavy rainfall flash flooding across the area
despite a lack of support from various model QPF output.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Unsettled weather looks to dominate
our forecast through most of the week next week as an upper-level
trough remains stationed over the eastern u.S. A strong ridge of
high pressure over the atlantic looks to keep the door closed to the
progression of an upper-level trough of low pressure. This trough
will remain stationary and fully cutoff by Sunday over the eastern
u.S., as the GFS has been suggesting. The ECMWF has come into closer
agreement as well, showing the low slowly filling and moving off to
the south. The GFS has the low retrograding to the southwest towards
the gulf of mexico through Wednesday. Regardless of which scenario,
the threat for rain, possibly heavy at times continues throughout
the early part of next week. There remains much uncertainty as to
where the heaviest rain may fall, but the possibility of training
storms exists as onshore southerly flow persists. Will need to
monitor this event as it nears to see what short range models
suggest before exact forecast amounts can be given.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight...VFR with mostly skc. North winds less than 5 knots or
calm in most areas.

Thursday...VFR. Only a few diurnal CU expected. Winds light and
variable early, then NE or E during the afternoon. Sea breeze across
ern nj expected.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday evening...VFR. SE winds under 10 kt.

Forecast confidence: high
late Friday night through Monday... Variable conditions with periods
of MVFR ifr possible. Unsettled weather pattern will be accompanied
by chances for showers and storms. Winds will vary from SE to S this
weekend into early next week. Forecast confidence: moderate

Marine
High pressure will remain west of the waters tonight and then build
overhead Thursday. Winds will favor N or NE directions tonight with
speeds around 10 knots. On Thursday, winds will become southeast or
east as the high builds overhead. Wind speeds will be around 5 to 10
knots. Fair weather expected tonight and Thursday. Seas mostly 2 to
3 ft on the ocean and 1 to 2 ft across delaware bay.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday night... Winds and seas below sca
criteria.

Saturday... East winds are expected to increase to 10-20 kt but
with poor mixing over the relatively cooler waters, gusts to 25
kt will be limited. Regardless, a SCA may be needed with seas
building to 5 ft in response to the strengthening onshore flow.

Saturday night through Monday... S-se winds of 10-20 kt will
continue. A SCA will likely be needed for our coastal waters
with seas remaining in the 4-6 ft range.

Rip currents...

despite onshore flow, light wind speeds and calmer seas of 2-3
ft will yield a low risk for the formation of dangerous rip
currents on Thursday.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Klein
near term... Mps o'hara
short term... O'hara
long term... Davis klein
aviation... Klein
marine... Klein o'hara


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi34 min 76°F 83°F1017 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi24 min ENE 9.7 G 12 81°F 1016.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi64 min N 7 G 8 78°F 80°F1016.7 hPa (+0.9)67°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi34 min NE 6 G 7 78°F 1016.6 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi34 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 76°F 86°F1016.2 hPa
CPVM2 32 mi34 min 79°F 62°F
44063 - Annapolis 33 mi24 min NNE 3.9 G 5.8 75°F 1016.5 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi34 min 73°F 1015.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi34 min N 5.1 G 5.1 75°F 82°F1015.9 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 39 mi94 min WNW 1 67°F 1015 hPa67°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi34 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 72°F 81°F1016.5 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi94 min NW 1 65°F 1016 hPa64°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi34 min 72°F 76°F1015.5 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi34 min NE 5.1 G 6 75°F 1016.1 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi34 min NE 8 G 8.9 75°F 1016.2 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi34 min WNW 6 G 7 75°F 1016.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi24 min N 5.8 G 5.8 78°F 1015.1 hPa

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi69 minNE 310.00 miPartly Cloudy70°F62°F78%1015.6 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair70°F62°F76%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmN9N7N4N6N6N5N5N6W7NW8
G16
NW8NW10NW10NW8NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS6S6SW7S6S5SW7SW8SW8SW5SW8SW9
G16
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW7W4CalmW4W5S8SW10
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S9S10S9S7S7SW10SW6SW7SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
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Thu -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     0.89 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:23 AM EDT     2.25 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 05:28 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:27 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.21.91.61.31.10.90.91.21.622.22.221.71.30.90.70.50.50.81.21.82.32.5

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:28 AM EDT     0.95 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:58 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 06:33 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:25 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.52.21.81.51.2111.21.522.32.42.21.91.51.10.70.50.50.71.21.72.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.