Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Choptank, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:18AMSunset 7:47PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:27 PM EDT (20:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 11:52PM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 238 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..N winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sat night..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun..S winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves flat.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
ANZ500 238 Pm Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will build eastward from the upper midwest through the weekend, moving off the new england coast early next week. An area of low pressure over the deep south will approach the region mid week. Small craft advisories may be needed Monday into Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Choptank, MD
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location: 38.68, -75.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 201951
afdphi
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
351 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over our area later tonight and remains in
place through the weekend, then shifts offshore on Monday. Low
pressure moves east across the gulf coast states Sunday and Monday,
then tracks up the mid-atlantic coast later Tuesday through late
Wednesday. High pressure then builds well to our west and south
later Thursday and Friday.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
Low pressure was positioned near the canadian maritimes this
afternoon while high pressure was centered over the midwest u.S. The
pressure gradient in between both systems has resulted in a breezy
day with northwest winds 10-15 mph gusting 20-25 mph. The gusts
should subside around sunset with the loss of daytime mixing while
the sustained wind speeds show a more gradual decrease tonight.

Winds will be an important part of the forecast for tonight and a
key link to the frost freeze potential tonight. The current thinking
is winds should become light late tonight with high pressure
building in from the west. Once this happens, temperatures will drop
rather quickly overnight, bottoming out in the lower to mid 30s
before daybreak (except upper 30s in the cities and along the
coast). A freeze warning was issued for cecil county, md and for
berks, western montgomery and western chester counties in pa with
lows expected to fall in the 30-32f range and the growing season
declared active. A frost advisory was issued for northeastern md,
de, the northern and western suburbs of philadelphia and central and
southern nj where (1) the growing season is already underway, (2)
temperatures are forecast to dip into the mid 30s and (3) calm winds
will provide favorable conditions for frost formation. High clouds
will start to stream in from the west late but should not have much
of an impact on radiational cooling.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through 6 pm Saturday
High pressure moves overhead tomorrow. A jet streak at the base of
the upper low to our northeast will be associated with mid and high
clouds over the region. There is some uncertainty regarding the
extent of the cloud cover tomorrow, but do think there will be
enough filtered sunshine or breaks in the clouds to allow for
temperatures to reach their full mixing potential during the
afternoon. Forecast highs generally range from 55-60f with slightly
cooler spots in the southern poconos and warmer spots in
philadelphia and toward southern delaware. NW winds 4-8 mph in the
morning, increasing to 8-12 mph in the afternoon.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Summary... Turning warmer, however a coastal low looks to affect our
weather Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Synoptic overview... An upper-level trough across the northeast is
forecast to shift offshore later in the weekend. As this occurs, a
ridge slides eastward from the great lakes driving surface high
pressure over our area. However, strong energy underneath this ridge
moves across the gulf coast states over the weekend into early next
week with surface low pressure associated with it. Meanwhile,
northern stream short wave over the great lakes region is forecast
to begin phasing with the southern stream closed low over the
southeast u.S. The model spread increases during this time frame due
to the timing of the phasing and the speed of the resulting surface
low near the east coast. The surface low is forecast to basically
slide northward by the mid-atlantic coast during mid-week before
shifting to our northeast to start Thursday. An upper-level trough
looks to then settle into the east for the end of next week while
weak surface high pressure slides to our south. This trough may
eventually lead to another coastal low development with time.

For Saturday night through Monday... Surface high pressure builds
over the region as an upper-level ridge slides eastward. The surface
high though will shift offshore Monday as low pressure tracks across
the southeastern u.S. The presence of surface high pressure over the
area will result in subsidence and a lack of clouds overall with
less wind, with the airmass modifying through the weekend. This
leads to each afternoon getting warmer. The exception will be the
coastal locales as light winds Sunday and Monday especially should
result in a sea breeze each afternoon and early evening. Low
temperatures though will still be chilly due to good radiational
cooling conditions, with some places potentially having frost or
freeze conditions especially Saturday night.

For Tuesday through Thursday... While a coastal low is anticipated to
affect our weather, the details are less certain. This is due to the
timing of phasing energy toward the east coast, with a closed low
with the southern stream and a short wave arriving from the great
lakes region within the northern stream. The southern stream energy
will drive surface low pressure off the southeast u.S. Coast Tuesday
morning, then energy interaction between the northern and southern
streams will help turn the low northward by later Tuesday and
continue through Wednesday. The latest thinking is to bring the low
just off of our coast later Wednesday then into new england Thursday
morning. The combination of onshore flow (increasing moisture) and
increasing synoptic ascent will bring widespread rain mainly
Tuesday night and Wednesday. Some of the rain could be heavy at
times, however the system may be moving quick enough where the
window of opportunity for heavy rain is shortened.

A period of stronger onshore flow could result in some coastal
flooding, although we are between the new full moon cycles. There is
still plenty of time to iron out the details, however given enough
agreement for widespread rain for a time we continued with likely to
low-end categorical pops for portions of this time frame. Initial
overunning rain should develop later Tuesday, with rain shifting
north Wednesday and then ending at night or early Thursday as low
pressure shifts to our northeast.

For Friday... An amplified upper-level trough may settle into the
east with some weak surface features moving through. Depending on
the evolution aloft, the airmass looks mild though and therefore
some showers cannot be ruled out if there is enough instability
during the day. As of now, we followed the wpc guidance rather
closely.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Remainder of this afternoon...VFR. Few to sct CU with bases 4-6
kft agl. NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts 20-25 kt, weakening.

Tonight...VFR. High clouds move in toward early morning with
cigs at or above 15 kft agl. NW wind gusts should diminish
toward or just after sunset this evening. Sustained winds will
decrease more gradually from 8-12 kt early this evening to 3-6
kt overnight.

Saturday...VFR with mid to high clouds (cigs above 10 kft agl).

Light NW winds 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night...VFR. Northwest winds 5-10 knots, becoming mostly
light and variable.

Sunday...VFR. Light and variable winds, becoming south to southwest
around 5 knots (becoming southeast in the afternoon at acy, miv and
possibly ilg).

Monday...VFR. East to southeast winds around 5 knots.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with increasing and gradually lower clouds,
then some light rain should develop at night. East-southeast winds
around 10 knots. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday... MVFR ifr conditions probable with a period of rain. A
period of gusty east to southeast winds possible, then lighter and
turning west to northwest at night. Low confidence with the
details.

Marine
This afternoon... SCA was allowed to expire at 2 pm with nw
winds generally in the 10-20 kt range. The north wildwood wxflow
station remains an anomaly with gusts still 25-30 kt but that
doesn't warrant an extension of a sca.

Tonight... Nw winds will continue to be in the 10-20 kt range
tonight. Short-period, wind-driven nwly swells will be in the
3-4 ft range in our coastal waters and 2 ft or less in the
delaware bay.

Saturday... Nw winds 10-15 kt in the morning will become
light variable toward midday and then S by mid afternoon in
association with the development of a sea-breeze near the
coast. Mesoscale models show the S winds strengthening to near
15 kt with gusts to 20 kt late in the day in the coastal waters
of nj.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday... .The conditions are expected to be
below small craft advisory criteria is over our area.

Tuesday and Wednesday... Small craft advisory conditions looking
likely. Low pressure is forecast to move up the east coast Tuesday
night through late Wednesday with onshore flow in advance of it.

Winds and seas therefore increase, with wind gusts anticipated as
of now to remain below gale force.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for paz102-104-
106.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for paz060-101-
103.

Nj... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for njz012-013-
015>022-027.

De... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for dez001>003.

Md... Frost advisory from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for mdz012-015-
020.

Freeze warning from 2 am to 8 am edt Saturday for mdz008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Gorse
near term... Klein
short term... Klein
long term... Gorse
aviation... Gorse klein
marine... Gorse klein


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 10 mi40 min 55°F 54°F1025.4 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 26 mi28 min S 1.9 G 3.9 51°F 1025.6 hPa (-0.9)
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 30 mi40 min NNE 9.9 G 12 49°F 1025.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 30 mi28 min NW 8 G 8.9 53°F 51°F1025.5 hPa (-1.1)27°F
CPVM2 32 mi40 min 54°F 26°F
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 32 mi40 min WNW 12 G 18 53°F 55°F1025.2 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 35 mi40 min 54°F 1024 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 36 mi40 min NNW 12 G 17 54°F 53°F1024.2 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 39 mi118 min WNW 8 52°F 1025 hPa28°F
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 40 mi40 min NNW 6 G 8.9 52°F 49°F1024.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 41 mi118 min N 8.9 55°F 1025 hPa28°F
LWSD1 - 8557380 - Lewes, DE 45 mi40 min N 6 G 12 50°F 50°F1023.8 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi40 min NW 17 G 20 53°F 1024.2 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi40 min NW 19 G 23 53°F 1023.9 hPa
BRND1 - 8555889 - Brandywine Shoal Light, DE 49 mi46 min NNW 14 G 16 48°F 1024.3 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 49 mi28 min E 3.9 G 5.8 50°F 54°F2 ft1026.2 hPa (-1.0)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 49 mi40 min NW 16 G 18

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD11 mi53 minNW 1210.00 miFair54°F26°F35%1024.7 hPa
Easton / Newman Field, MD11 mi38 minN 1210.00 miClear55°F26°F33%1025.7 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW22
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1 day agoSW5SW5CalmSE3SE3SE4SE3SE6S5SE4NE4NE4NE4N7NE5CalmNW5W5SW5W7NW10NW16
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2 days agoW8NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Choptank, Choptank River, Maryland
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Choptank
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Fri -- 02:21 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:33 AM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:21 PM EDT     0.39 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:08 PM EDT     1.66 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.70.40.30.30.61.11.72.32.62.62.421.61.20.80.60.40.40.71.11.51.71.61.3

Tide / Current Tables for Dover Bridge, Choptank River, Maryland
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Dover Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:25 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:08 AM EDT     2.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:26 PM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:43 PM EDT     1.76 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.80.50.30.30.611.62.12.62.82.72.31.91.410.60.40.40.711.41.71.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.