Monday, February19, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 5:48PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:34 PM EST (19:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:02AMMoonset 9:40PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle with a slight chance of showers. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Areas of drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..SW winds 10 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..NE winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain likely through the day, then a chance of rain through the night.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. A chance of rain.
ANZ500 1233 Pm Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A warm front will approach from the south this afternoon before passing through later tonight through Tuesday morning. Unseasonably warm conditions are expected behind the boundary later Tuesday through Wednesday. A cold front will pass through the waters later Wednesday night into Thursday and it will remain stalled to our south through Friday. Small craft advisories may be needed Wednesday through Thursday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 191435
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
935 am est Mon feb 19 2018

A strong warm front will lift through our area tonight as low
pressure heads from the ohio valley into the quebec by midweek.

The associated strong cold front will ease southeast through our
area Wednesday night. Thereafter, strong high pressure builds
to our north Thursday and to the maritimes by Saturday while a
warm front forms to our southwest. Low pressure heads into the
northeast usa next weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure will remain offshore today while a warm front
develops across the area. An increase in moisture and warmth
today as a south to southeast wind continues over the region.

Showers that moved across the eastern shore earlier have
diminished. Only sprinkles are scattered around the area attm,
and this could be the only precip through the early afternoon,
so pops were reduced and 'sprinkles' wording was included for
the fcst into the afternoon. After that, showers that are across
wrn pa will move east and affect (mostly) the northern third of
the area. Pops were not changes much, but reduced a bit across
the delaware valley. Temperatures for now look ok, but some
breaks in the clouds may cause the hourly readings to stray, so
we'll keep a watch on them.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Tuesday
The short wave and lift that will help create the rain this
afternoon will be lifting out of the area during this evening.

Therefore the rain is expected to tapper off and lift to our
north during the evening hours. The warm front to our south will
continue lifting to the north overnight, but it is not expected
to lift all the way through by daybreak Wednesday. There will
be an inversion developing across the area, and moisture is
expected to get trapped in the low levels north of the warm
front. This will likely lead to areas of fog and low stratus
overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Where ever the
warm front does lift through, the fog may begin to dissipate;
this would most likely be southern new jersey and southern
delaware and maryland. It is possible that some patchy dense fog
may develop, but winds may be elevated enough in many locations
to prevent widespread dense fog from developing. It is also
possible that some drizzle may develop as well, especially where
the fog becomes thickest.

Very late in the night, toward the early morning hours Tuesday,
as a bubble of enhanced area of theta-e lifts across coastal
areas of delaware and new jersey, there is indication by the
models that some light showers may develop. So we've added some
pops late in the overnight early morning hours for the coastal

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
**record warmth likely Tuesday and everywhere on Wednesday**
hazards: possible ice Thursday, and then again Friday into
Saturday near and north of i-80.

500 mb... An anomalously warm strong ridge along the east coast
prevails with a positive tilt trough back to the western usa,
ejecting short waves northeastward. One short wave dents the top
of the ridge Thursday. Subsequently another 1 or 2 disturbances
ride into the northeast states by the weekend at the same time
a blocking pattern becomes evident in greenland with -nao

Temperatures: as we head toward a top 10 warmest february on record,
multiple records are anticipated this coming week. The climate
section has the record temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, and
also the record rainfall for acy which may be rewritten this
weekend. Calendar day average temperatures Tuesday will be
20-25f above normal, 25-30f above normal Wednesday, then
substantial differences develop between the warmer GFS and the
colder ecmwf. The GFS continues 15 above normal Thursday, near 8
above Friday, 15 above Saturday and Sunday. The ECMWF is much
cooler with only about 10 above Thursday, 5 to 7 above Friday,
10 to 15 above Saturday and less than 10f above Sunday. With
blocking developing this weekend, I am favoring the colder ec
solution and this forecast in my opinion for thu-weekend is not
cold enough across the board.

Forecast basis: unless otherwise noted used a 50 50 blend of
the 00z 19 GFS nam MOS Tuesday-Wednesday (except mostly warmer
gfs temps). Thereafter the 00z 19 GFS mex MOS Wednesday night-
Thursday and the 06z 19 wpc 12 hr MAX min pop, 6hr TD wind sky
with all the temps blended colder using the ggem ECMWF 2m

The dailies...

Tuesday... Record warmth likely (forecasting record equaling or
exceeding at 5 stations including acy, phl, ilg ged mpo). The
nam in southwest flow tends to hold onto too much low lvl
moisture, thereby forecasting too cool. My primary concern with
temps is over the remaining rapidly melting snow cover of NE pa
and nnj which should for the most part be depleted. Morning
fog low clouds should give way to increasing afternoon sunshine.

Southwest wind gusts 20 mph during the afternoon. Confidence:
average, the limit is stratus capping potential warmth.

Wednesday... After any predawn reforming of stratus spotty fog, a
mostly sunny record warm day is expected with southwest wind
gusts 20-25 mph. A couple of locations may approach all time
february records with 13c at 850 mb. Showers are now confined to
mainly NE pa late in the day. Confidence: well above average.

Records should be exceeded at all stations and while this
forecast may be 2 or 3 degrees on the warm side, have taken into
acct the typical cool bias within a day of cfp on SW flow. A
564 1000-500 thickness. In some locations, the record could be
exceeded by 4 to 7 degrees.

Also, the numbers posted this morning are within 3 degrees of
all time feb records at ilg ttn ged rdg mpo. So no guarantee of
getting that close but the forecast is the best estimate. If we
are correct on ged's 77, that would equal their all time feb
record set february 25, just last year.

Wednesday night... A cold frontal passage but probably too late
to prevent record warm daily mins for Wednesday as well. There
could be a few showers with the front, mainly i78 north. All the
record warm mins are in the climate section. Confidence:
above average.

Thursday... (max temps for the day at 1201am!) cloudy and much colder
with a gusty north-northeast wind developing and a period of cold
rain likely. It's possible sleet or freezing rain will occur
along the northern fringe from NE pa through far northwest nj
but not enough confidence to grid-fcst at this time.

Confidence: above average.

Thursday night... A period of clearing is possible as a subtle
ripple of low pressure along the front that brought the rain
Thursday zips off the coast and allows the front to sag well
south of our area. Confidence: average.

Friday-Saturday-Sunday... Provocative in multiple ways. Once
cold air gets in, its hard to dislodge with high pressure to the
north and northeast. We will be at the top of the ridge with
short waves not forcing much lowering of surface pressure but
sending periods of precipitation east north east into our area.

It looks like there will have to be some icing occuring in NE pa
and NW nj, especially high terrain N of i80 Friday morning its
possible this could turn into a subtle ice storm depending on
the duration of the icing. Have lowered guidance temps from the
00z 19 values and suspect am not cold enough in NE pa and NW nj
for most of this 3 day period. Confidence: average.

Also, I am not starting a hydro section today, but there is
potential for a couple of inches of rain Friday-Sunday, in
pieces. That could be pushing a few small streams to near
bankfull. See and follow wpc d4-7 guidance for both QPF and
winter the next couple of days. Mmefs will soon extend into the
weekend for other review.

Aviation 15z Monday through Friday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg,
kilg, kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Today...VFR conditions with light and variable winds will start
the day off as high pressure moves out to sea. Some showers may
affect the TAF sites this morning as an area of showers moves in
from the southwest. Any steady wind direction will be from the
east to southeast this morning. Winds will increase out of the
south- southeast through today around 5-10 knots. Clouds will
increase through the day, and lower to MVFR and possibly ifr by
this afternoon. As a warm front lifts toward the region,
rainfall is expected to move into the area by this afternoon,
and could affect all TAF sites. The most likely sites to be
affected for the longest period of time by rain will be abe and

Tonight... Conditions expected to continue to lower to ifr
overnight as a warm front lifts into the region. The front is
not expected to make it all the way through the area through
daybreak however. North of the warm front, ifr conditions with
low clouds, fog, and possibly drizzle are expected. South of the
warm front, the fog and low clouds may lift. Winds will be
mostly south to southeast north of the warm front, then turn
south to southwest south of the warm front with speeds generally
around 5 knots or less.


Tuesday morning... Leftover ifr conditions expected in low clouds and
fog. Southwest wind. Confidence: average.

Tuesday afternoon and evening... MainlyVFR. Southwest wind gusty 20
kt. Confidence: above average.

Tuesday night and Wednesday morning... Patchy low clouds and fog with
some ifr conditions possible. Southwest wind. Confidence: average.

Wednesday afternoon... MainlyVFR. Gusty southwest wind 20 kt.

Confidence: well above average.

Wednesday night...VFR with a chance of showers vcnty krdg kabe kttn
and wind shift from southwest to northwest-north near or after
midnight. Confidence: well above average.

Thursday...VFR with possible MVFR conds in a period two of
rain. A gusty north to northeast wind developing of 15-20 kt.

Confidence: above average.

Thursday night...VFR. Northeast wind. Confidence: above average.

Friday...VFR to start but deteriorating to MVFR or ifr conditions in
rain. Northeast wind to start becoming east or southeast at
night. Confidence: above average.

Conditions will remain below small craft advisory levels
through tonight. Winds will remain 10-15 knots as high pressure
pushes to the east, and a warm front lifts toward the area
overnight. Seas will build some overnight, but may only reach 3
to 4 feet. Areas of fog and drizzle are likely to develop this
evening and overnight as warm, moist air moves across the waters.

There may even be some showers later today and into tonight as


Tuesday through Wednesday... Wind speeds and wave heights are forecast
to remain below the small craft advisory criteria. A 3 to 4 ft southerly
5 second wind wave group will be predominant in the atlc coastal waters.

Patchy fog may develop over the coastal waters. Confidence: well
above average except less certainty on fog.

Thursday through Friday... An sca, especially for seas may be
needed for the atlantic waters due to persistent northeast flow.

Confidence: average.

Record high temperatures are possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Tuesday, february 20:
atlantic city... 70 in 1930
philadelphia... .70 in 1939
wilmington... ... 71 in 1930
allentown... ... .68 in 1930
trenton... ... ... 70 in 1930
georgetown... ... 68 in 2002
mount pocono... .59 in 1930
reading... ... ... 72 in 1930
Wednesday, february 21:
atlantic city... 74 in 1930
philadelphia... .72 in 1930
wilmington... ... 70 in 1953
allentown... ... .67 in 1953
trenton... ... ... 70 in 1930
georgetown... ... 71 in 2014
mount pocono... .60 in 1930
reading... ... ... 71 in 1930
a record warm minimum temperature may be set for atlantic city
on Tuesday. The current record is 44 in 1949.

The following are the record warm minimum temperatures for
Wednesday, all which should be exceeded.

Abe 46-1981
acy 49-1954
phl 49-2002
ilg 47-2002
rdg 48-1930
ttn 48-2002
the all time february MAX temps may be approached on Wednesday
at ilg, ttn, ged rdg mpo. All the all time monthly max's are
listed below:
acy 77 2 25 30
phl 79 2 25 30
ilg 78 2 24 85
abe 77 2 24 17
ttn 76 2 25 30
ged 77 2 25 17
rdg 77 2 24 17
mpo 70 2 25 30
our expectation is that acy will exceed the previous all time
record rainfall for february, by the end of the weekend. The
record is 6.50 inches in 2010. #2 is 1958 with 5.98 inches.

And... Adding only half an inch to phl and ilg will put both
locations in the top 9 ranking for feb rainfall.

Have rechecked the monthly projection at phl and the avg temp
continues at 41.0 or 5.3f above avg which is 8th warmest on
record, if it holds. Add or subtract a degree to the
average departure and the ranking changes from 3rd to 11th. The
forecast 5.3f departure is ~2f warmer than the current
departure. I'd expect similar for the rest of our area... A bit
less in the north which will have better chances for colder air,
and a bit more warming in the south where the positive departure
as of yesterday was already 5f above normal, heading for 7+. So
all in all it appears we're heading for a top 10 warmest
february. Last year was the warmest on record, a whopping 3+f
degrees warmer than our current projection.

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Drag
near term... Robertson po
short term... Robertson
long term... Drag
aviation... Drag robertson
marine... Drag robertson

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi46 min 51°F 44°F1030.2 hPa
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi34 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 41°F 38°F1029.7 hPa (-2.9)
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi34 min S 7 G 7 40°F 38°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi46 min S 5.1 G 6 41°F 1030.2 hPa
CPVM2 25 mi46 min 40°F 40°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi46 min 44°F 1028.7 hPa
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi46 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 40°F1029.2 hPa
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi46 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 44°F1029.8 hPa
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi46 min SSW 5.1 G 7 43°F 40°F1029.5 hPa
FSNM2 42 mi46 min SSE 5.1 G 7 42°F 1028.4 hPa
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi46 min ESE 6 G 7 42°F 1029.2 hPa
44042 - Potomac, MD 46 mi34 min NW 3.9 G 3.9 42°F 42°F1028.8 hPa (-2.8)
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi46 min SSE 1.9 G 4.1 42°F 39°F1028.8 hPa
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi46 min SSW 4.1 G 6 42°F 42°F1029.5 hPa
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi124 min S 2.9 49°F 1031 hPa46°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi46 minSSW 74.00 miOvercast50°F46°F88%1030.5 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi59 minS 1010.00 miOvercast52°F46°F82%1029.8 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi59 minS 71.50 miLight Drizzle Fog/Mist45°F42°F93%1029.5 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW6NW6NW3CalmE4E5SE6SE4SE4SE5S5S4S5S4S4SE3CalmS4S4S6S5S4S6S7
1 day agoNE4CalmNE3NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW5W7NW5CalmCalm--NW6N6N7N8NW8
2 days agoCalmN9

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Mon -- 12:18 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EST     1.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:24 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:14 PM EST     1.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:40 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Mon -- 02:18 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:09 AM EST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:31 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:02 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:45 AM EST     -0.46 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:34 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:19 PM EST     0.49 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:47 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:19 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:41 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 11:52 PM EST     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.