Saturday, June23, 2018

Marine Weather and Tides
Oxford, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:38AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday June 23, 2018 7:43 PM EDT (23:43 UTC) Moonrise 3:23PMMoonset 1:53AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ541 Choptank River To Cambridge Md And The Little Choptank River- 732 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Tonight..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers and tstms likely this evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A chance of showers through the day. Showers likely through the night.
Thu..SW winds 10 to 15 kt...diminishing to 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Winds and waves higher and visibilities lower in and near tstms.
ANZ500 732 Pm Edt Sat Jun 23 2018
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A low pressure over the ohio valley will move into the eastern great lakes tonight. This low will continue moving eastward across new england Sunday bringing a cold front across the waters. High pressure will return Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oxford, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.17     debug

Area Discussion for - Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA
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Fxus61 kphi 232150
area forecast discussion
national weather service mount holly nj
550 pm edt Sat jun 23 2018

Low pressure and its associated fronts will affect the area through
Sunday. High pressure builds in Monday and Tuesday, then it moves
offshore later Tuesday into Wednesday. A warm front moves to our
north Wednesday night, then a cold front slowly approaches Thursday
into Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The presence of warm air advection north of a ever-so-slowly
northbound warm front has helped locked in a strong low-level
inversion. This has held in the low clouds near and north of the
warm front. This is very slowly giving way on the southern edge,
however the extent of clearing northward is less certain given the
flow not as strong as on GOES northward. We therefore cut back or
delayed the thunder mention northward, as a mesoanalysis shows the
instability gradient is south of philadelphia. The best chance for
some thunder is across DELMARVA and far southern new jersey where up
to 1500 j kg of MLCAPE and 30-40 knots of effective bulk shear
resides. Not a lot of forcing however, other than a weak frontal
zone and surface low lifting northeastward. We will watch the
convection approaching washington dc at this time as it tracks
eastward. This may be the main chance for stronger convection and
subsequent wind threat in parts of our far southern areas. Some
other thunder may make a run at our far western zones through this
evening, however lightning has been rather sparse so far to our west.

The hourly temperature, dew point, pops, sky cover and wind grids
were all updated based on the latest observations and trends.

Otherwise, model solutions remain vastly different on how they
handle the warm front through tonight. Decided to stick closer to
the NAM and keep the front within the CWA through the night. We
don't see it tracking north out of our cwa. The NAM has it hung up
trenton south much of the night.

Since temperatures never rose to expected levels this afternoon
across the northern half of the cwa, there won't be much variation
going into tonight. Further south, where the Sun has made an
appearance this afternoon, we will see temps drop diurnally. Looking
at 60s for the northern 2 3rds of the cwa, and lower 70s across the
southern 1 3rd. Going with the more pessimistic NAM and keeping
clouds in all night.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through 6 pm Sunday
The warm front doesn't quite make it up to nyc. A cold front passes
around daybreak. Another cold front will try to push through Sunday
afternoon, but should be weakening as it does so.

Temps will climb into the 80s for most of us tomorrow. The poconos
will likely hold onto the 70s.

Maybe a bit more Sun tomorrow, but don't foresee the very low
clouds, fog, and drizzle the region is experiencing today. Chance
pops are in place mainly from the i95 corridor westward, slight
chance pops are in place across the coastal plain. The exception is
the poconos where I did paint likelies. The beaches may not see any
precipitation until the evening.

Long term Sunday night through Saturday
Sunday night... The last of the showers from Sunday will end from nw
to SE during the evening as the cold front upper trough move east of
the area. Skies should become partly cloudy overnight and low
temperatures will drop into the 60s in most areas. A bit warmer
across DELMARVA and perhaps some upper 50s across the southern

Monday thru Wednesday... Three nice days expected with only a small
chc for a TSTM across the N W areas Wednesday afternoon. It will be
pleasantly mild and comfortable with highs generally in the
low mid 80s. These readings are within a few degrees of normal
for late june. High pressure will predominate, cresting over the
area Tuesday and moving offshore Wednesday.

Wednesday night thru Saturday... Unsettled conditions along with
a change to hot and humid conditions expected. Highs on
Thursday may remain in the upper 80s, but 90s are expected
Friday and into the upcoming weekend. Plenty of humidity is
expected as well. Temperatures and humidity levels will likely
fall into excessive heat criteria if things don't change. This
will be worth watching over the next few days. A low pressure
system and associated fronts will affect the area from Wednesday
night thru Friday, we we have some chc pops for tstms in the
fcst for those periods.

Aviation 22z Saturday through Thursday
The following discussion is for kphl, kpne, kttn, kabe, krdg, kilg,
kmiv, kacy and surrounding areas.

Tonight... Ifr MVFR ceilings overall. Some showers around through at
least this evening, however the thunder risk looks rather low and
was removed for most of the terminals. Winds should go light and
variable at all terminals, with some light fog possibly developing
overnight. Lower confidence regarding the ceiling trends.

Sunday... Ifr MVFR to start, then improving toVFR by 15z. Some
afternoon showers and thunderstorms possible, especially north and
west of phl. Light and variable winds, becoming southwest around 10


Sunday night... Sct evening showers then fair withVFR.

Monday thru Wednesday...VFR expected.

Wed night and Thursday... Sct tstms with restrictions psbl.

The conditions are anticipated to be below small craft advisory
criteria through Sunday. Winds should hold at 10 knots or less
across our northern waters. This will transition into some gusts up
to 20 knots for the delaware atlantic coastal waters. A few
thunderstorms possible through this evening mainly from about
atlantic city southward where locally gusty winds are possible.

Because of the warm front, the winds across the far northern
waters should stay northeast much of the night. Further south,
they should go southerly. For Sunday, southeast to southwest
winds 10 knots or less. Seas 3 to 4 feet on the ocean and up to
2 feet across delaware bay.


sun night... Lingering showers or tstms will end overnight, sub-
sca conditions, but higher winds and seas near any tstm. Monday
thru Wednesday... Sub-sca conditions with fair weather. Wednesday
night thru Thursday... Low end SCA conditions with sct tstms.

Rip currents...

northeast to east winds will shift to the south-southwest tonight,
except for monmouth county. Speeds will mainly be 10 mph or
less except for the delaware beaches where some gusts up to 25
mph are possible. Seas in the surf zone will be 3 to 4 feet.

There is a low risk for the formation of dangerous rips this
evening for the de beaches. With more of an onshore component of
flow and swell, there is a moderate risk for the nj beaches.

For Sunday, a low risk of rip currents is anticipated for the
new jersey and delaware beaches with a more south to southwest

Phi watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Nj... None.

De... None.

Md... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... O'hara
near term... Gorse kruzdlo
short term... Kruzdlo
long term... O'hara
aviation... Gorse o'hara
marine... Gorse kruzdlo o'hara

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CA2 - 8571892 - Cambridge, MD 9 mi43 min 80°F 81°F1009.5 hPa (-0.0)
44062 - Gooses Reef, MD 16 mi33 min S 5.8 G 7.8 80°F 1008.7 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 21 mi43 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 74°F 76°F1009.5 hPa (-0.0)73°F
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 22 mi43 min S 6 G 7 77°F 1009.4 hPa (-0.0)
CPVM2 25 mi43 min 75°F 75°F
44063 - Annapolis 25 mi33 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 76°F 1008.9 hPa
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 27 mi43 min 78°F 1008 hPa (+0.0)
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 29 mi133 min SE 1.9 81°F 1008 hPa69°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 29 mi43 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 78°F 79°F1008.6 hPa (+0.3)
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 33 mi43 min SSE 8 G 8.9 78°F 82°F1008.9 hPa (-0.7)
TCBM2 - 8573364 - Tolchester Beach, MD 37 mi43 min N 6 G 7 75°F 75°F1008.8 hPa (-0.3)
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 42 mi49 min SE 2.9 G 2.9
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 42 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 5.1 75°F 1008.4 hPa (-0.6)
FSNM2 42 mi43 min SSE 5.1 G 6 75°F 1008.5 hPa
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 46 mi43 min SSW 1.9 G 4.1 76°F 77°F1008.1 hPa (-0.8)
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 47 mi43 min S 4.1 G 5.1 79°F 77°F1008.7 hPa (-0.0)
DRSD1 - Delaware Reserve, DE 48 mi133 min E 2.9 76°F 1009 hPa76°F

Wind History for Cambridge, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Easton / Newman Field, MD10 mi58 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F71°F70%1009.8 hPa
Cambridge-Dorchester Airport, MD12 mi68 minVar 410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F73°F74%1008.1 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD22 mi68 minN 47.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F71°F83%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from ESN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrE10
1 day agoE4E3E3SE4E3CalmCalmSE3CalmE3CalmE5E8E10
2 days agoCalmCalmSW4SW5W3CalmCalmW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW6NW8N6NE8NE7N6NE8N8N4E6

Tide / Current Tables for Oxford, Tred Avon River, Maryland
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Sat -- 12:59 AM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:52 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 12:50 PM EDT     1.62 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:22 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:21 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of), Maryland Current
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Cove Point (1.1 mi. NE of)
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Sat -- 02:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:21 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:29 AM EDT     -0.61 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 09:41 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:00 PM EDT     0.31 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 02:44 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:13 PM EDT     -0.53 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 08:32 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:53 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Philadelphia/Mount Holly, PA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.