Saturday, November18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Chesapeake Beach, MD

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:52PM Saturday November 18, 2017 2:33 PM EST (19:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:45AMMoonset 5:23PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ533 Chesapeake Bay From North Beach To Drum Point- 147 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm est this evening through Sunday afternoon...
This afternoon..S winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt... Increasing to 35 kt late. Waves 4 ft. Showers.
Sun..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Waves 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Waves 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Waves 2 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft...building to 3 ft.
ANZ500 147 Pm Est Sat Nov 18 2017
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front will move across the waters late tonight into early Sunday morning and high pressure will build to our south later Sunday through Monday. The high will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will pass through late Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft advisory may be needed for portions of the waters Monday and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chesapeake Beach, MD
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location: 38.68, -76.53     debug

Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 181557
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1057 am est Sat nov 18 2017

High pressure will move offshore today. A strong cold front
will cross the area late tonight into early Sunday. High
pressure will build to the south of the region late Sunday
through Monday before moving offshore Tuesday. Another cold
front will pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday before
stalling well to our south and east on thanksgiving day.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Surface high pressure continues sliding east off the coast. At
the same time, a low pressure system organizing over il will
move east-northeastward towards the eastern great lakes this
afternoon and through the saint lawrence valley tonight,
deepening to ~980 mb.

The main weather feature that will affect the region for the
rest of today is a warm frontal zone associated with the
aforementioned low pressure system. Clouds and showers driven by
the warm and moist air advection are crossing the area, mainly
north of the immediate dc metro. Temperatures are warming
quickly in some areas thanks to strong southerly flow and most
areas have already reached the 40s, with some spots into the

Strong southwest winds will continue through the day, and while
mixing will be limited enough in the lowlands to keep gusts
below 30 mph, across the higher elevations, gusts are expected
to reach 45-50 mph by late in the day and a wind advisory has
been issued for these locations after 4 pm, mainly above 2000
feet. Some isolated gusts to this magnitude may occur earlier
across the highest elevations.

Our current high temperature forecast only reflects values
through 8pm due to the programming of ndfd. In reality, many
spots may reach their midnight-midnight high after this point
thanks to strong southerly flow continuing this evening ahead of
the cold front.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
The surface low will be near far northern ny and the
ontario quebec border by Sunday morning with the strong surface
cold front crossing our region tonight. This will bring a period
of rain showers as it moves across with gusty south southwest
winds continuing out ahead of the front, especially across the
higher elevations where a the wind advisory is in effect. While
instability will very limited, with strong wind field aloft, a
shallow-topped convective fine line cannot be ruled out where
gusts may be locally higher. Temperatures will likely continue
slowly rising through frontal passage, with readings likely to
be into the low 60s after midnight Sunday morning.

Behind the front, low level temperature profiles will crash, with
precipitation changing to snow along and west of the allegheny
front and taking on an upslope characterization as northwest
winds increase. Wind gusts will be increasing area-wide behind
the front as well, and gusts to 50 mph are possible beginning
early Sunday morning. Therefore the wind advisory may need to be
expanded. Lows by morning drop into the 30s along the allegheny
front to the 40s and low 50s elsewhere.

The strongest winds will occur Sunday morning when the best
combination of mixing and strong wind field aloft overlap. The
winds will gradually lessen in the afternoon hours. Upslope
snow showers will continue along and west of the allegheny front
through the day with several inches of snow accumulation
likely. Temperatures Sunday won't rise much following the front
so highs very similar to tonight's lows.

A potent upper level shortwave rounding through the base of the
large scale trough will then cross the region Sunday evening. This
will not only act to re-invigorate the upslope snow showers, but
may also bring some scattered flurries and snow showers
eastward towards central and northern md, the eastern wv
panhandle and northern shenandoah valley of va. Snow showers and
gusty winds will then gradually dwindle Sunday night with lows
falling into the 20s and 30s.

By Monday high pressure will be building into the region with much
quieter weather expected. Highs in the 40s to around 50f, with
lows Monday night in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
High pressure will move offshore Tuesday and a return southwest
flow will usher in somewhat milder conditions. A cold front will
pass through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday... Possibly
triggering some showers along with more clouds.

High pressure is most likely to build into the area late
Wednesday through the end of the week... Bringing dry and chilly
conditions. However... Shortwave energy may interact with a
stalled boundary over the southeastern conus... Causing low
pressure to develop. If this occurrs... It could have an impact
on our weather thanksgiving day into Friday with more clouds and
even possible rain. Confidence in this occurring is low at this
time since a majority of the guidance keeps the low far enough
to our south from impacting our area... But this will have to be
monitored over the next few days.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
PrimarilyVFR expected through today, although with thickening
and lowering clouds. A warm frontal zone is crossing the region
with some rain showers likely at mrb, and possibly as far south
and east as iad dca bwi mtn. A period of MVFR is possible at mrb
with these showers.

An additional period of sub-vfr conditions is possible overnight
tonigt as a cold front moves across the region with another
period of rain showers.

However, the main aviation weather concern will be increasing
low level wind field today through Sunday. Winds are gusting to
20-25 knots or so at many locales already, and those where it is
not will likely see increasing gusts through the remainder of
today. After cold frontal passage late tonight, gusty northwest
winds will develop with gusts 30-40 knots likely.

Winds will gradually lessen late Sunday into Monday as high
pressure builds in.

Vfr conditions are expected Tuesday. A cold front will pass
through the terminals Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few
showers and subvfr conditions are possible during this time.

Small craft advisory is in effect for all waters through
tonight with increasing low level wind field. Gusts may approach
gale force later tonight associated with cold frontal passage,
but will keep SCA for now.

The strongest winds are expected to occur Sunday morning behind
the cold front, and a gale warning has been issued for Sunday.

Winds gradually lessen late Sunday and Sunday night, however
sca level winds still likely, and may continue into Monday.

High pressure will move offshore Tuesday and a cold front will
pass through Tuesday night into Wednesday. A small craft
advisory may be needed for portions of the waters during this
time. High pressure is most likely to return for late in the
week... But low pressure has the potential to develop over the
southeastern CONUS and it could impact our weather. Confidence
in this occurring is low at this time.

Tides coastal flooding
Water levels continue to increase as southerly wind increases.

Strait's point should hit minor this afternoon. Many sites may
hit tonight but will evaluate trends through early this
afternoon before issuing a headline. Current tide trends suggest
a 2:1 blend of etss and more aggressive cbofs would work best
(the latter model has moderate at annapolis tonight; believe
this is overdone but not impossible so will monitor closely).

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... None.

Md... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est Sunday for

Coastal flood advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 9 pm est
this evening for mdz014.

Coastal flood advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for

Va... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est Sunday for

Wv... Wind advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to noon est Sunday for

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 am est Sunday for anz530>543.

Gale warning from 6 am to 6 pm est Sunday for anz530>543.

Synopsis... Bjl rcm
near term... Mm rcm
short term... Mm rcm
long term... Bjl
aviation... Bjl mm rcm
marine... Bjl mm rcm
tides coastal flooding... Dhof

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 12 mi64 min SSW 9.9 58°F 1005 hPa38°F
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 16 mi34 min SSW 23 G 26 57°F 54°F

Wind History for Cove Point LNG Pier, MD
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD21 mi38 minS 15 G 2210.00 miFair58°F37°F45%1005.5 hPa
Bay Bridge Field, MD23 mi54 minS 13 G 1710.00 miFair57°F41°F55%1005.8 hPa

Wind History from ADW (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW8NW8W4CalmS4CalmS3S3S5S6S6S6S6S7S6S9S8S9S14S18
1 day agoNW10NW17
2 days agoSE6SE6SE5SE3CalmSE4CalmSW3CalmW6SW5SW4SW6SW8SW9W8W6W7W8SW5W7SW8SW16W9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Beach, Maryland
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Chesapeake Beach
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Sat -- 03:13 AM EST     1.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:25 AM EST     0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     1.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:20 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for Broomes Island, 0.4 mile south of, Maryland Current
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Broomes Island
Click for MapFlood direction 290 true
Ebb direction 110 true

Sat -- 02:43 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:39 AM EST     -0.40 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:42 AM EST     New Moon
Sat -- 06:44 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:51 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:44 AM EST     0.57 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 03:24 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 06:41 PM EST     -0.63 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 10:20 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.