Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mount Vernon, VA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:51AMSunset 5:52PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:08 PM EST (17:08 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 7:46AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ535 Tidal Potomac From Key Bridge To Indian Head- 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..E winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Snow or sleet late this morning, then sleet and rain or freezing rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less late this morning.
Tonight..W winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Rain.
Thu..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves less than 1 ft.
Fri..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri night..Light winds. Waves 1 ft. Rain likely.
Sat..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Rain.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
ANZ500 939 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Synopsis for the tidal potomac and md portion of the chesapeake bay.. A strong low pressure system will impact the region throug tonight. Low pressure will then push off to the north and east on Thursday as a frontal boundary passes through the waters. High pressure will build to the north on Friday and another cold front will cross the waters on Sunday. Small craft conditions will be possible on Thursday, and likely on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mount Vernon, VA
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location: 38.68, -77.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Baltimore, MD/Washington
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Fxus61 klwx 201520
afdlwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service baltimore md washington dc
1020 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure will track from the mississippi valley
into the great lakes today through tonight. Coastal low
pressure will develop along the mid-atlantic coast tonight
before moving off to our northeast Thursday. High pressure will
return Thursday night and Friday before another low pressure
impacts the area early next week.

Near term through tonight
Snow overspread the CWA this morning and is now transitioning to
sleet and freezing rain across southern and western locations,
including southern and western portions of maryland, central
and northwestern virginia, and eastern west virginia. Snow
persists at present from dc northwestward to hagerstown and
points north and east, but the transition should continue
sliding northeast across the remaining portions of the region
through midday. Warming surface temps will then begin to spead
across the region from southeast to northwest, allowing the
sleet and freezing rain to change to plain rain, but this
progress is notoriously hard to forecast and our confidence on
this timing remains lower than we'd like. Will maintain
headlines for now but may start to chop away at the winter storm
warning in areas where it is becoming apparent that criteria is
not being met, while as temps warm in southern md, we may start
chipping away at the advisory. Precip should end as rain or
a very marginal freezing rain late tonight across the region.

Of note is that available instability aloft has been impressive
enough to generate sporadict lightning strikes, and these may
continue into the early afternoon as precip continues to
transition from snow to ice.

Short term Thursday through Friday night
Cdfnt clears the area early on Thu with rain ending by 09z if
not sooner. High pressure then builds over the area Thu night
with next round of overrunning precip associated with developing
southern plains cyclone beginning late Fri night. Given milder
period ahead and high pressure at a more eastward position, this
appears to be a mostly rain event except possibly in far nw
maryland where some freezing rain is possible.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Warm front will be crossing the area Saturday, with more than
enough isentropic lift to induce a swath of precipitation.

Thermal profiles will be sufficiently warm for this to be all
rain. With a trajectory off of the gulf of mexico, anticipate
that moisture won't be a hinderance. Model guidance suggesting
precipitable water will be exceeding an inch... And approaching
an impressive (for february) 1.5 inches by Saturday night. Any
remaining snow should be melted away, as temperatures drop
little Saturday night in continued warm advection. But, the
rainfall and snowmelt could lead to flooding concerns, as
suggested by the naefs mmerf.

Temperatures will continue to rise well into the 60s on Sunday
ahead of a cold front, which may lead to additional showers. A
tight thermal gradient should lead to strong cold advection, and
thus windy conditions.

High pressure will build across the northeast Monday-Tuesday.

Since broad ridging remains 850-500 mb, temperatures don't drop
considerably... And will remains at or above climo normals
Monday, receding to near normal by Tuesday. (cold
advection breezy conditions will continue into Monday.) with a
jetmax along the central atlantic coast, systems will be
progressive. Chance pops will return by the end of the day
Tuesday.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
Continuing lifr ifr conditions this morning as snow changes to
sleet and freezing rain in the afternoon and eventually to rain
late today or early this evening. Kmrb will be the last to
change to rain not likely until 03z tonight. Rain ends late
tonight around 09z with CIGS and vsbys improving.

Flight restrictions (MVFR to ifr) likely this weekend in rain.

Conditions may lift slightly Saturday night between warm and
cold frontal passages.

Marine
Marginal SCA conditions possible this afternoon and evening.

Otherwise, light winds 10 kt or less through Fri night.

Light (at or below 10 kt) south winds Saturday as a warm front
passes north of the waters. Mixing improves considerably Sunday
behind a cold front. Small craft advisory conditions likely on
Sunday.

Lwx watches warnings advisories
Dc... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for dcz001.

Md... Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for mdz005-
006-011-013-014-503>508.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for mdz003-004-
501-502.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
mdz016>018.

Va... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for vaz025-
026-036>038-503-504-507-508.

Winter storm warning until 7 pm est this evening for vaz039-
050>054-502-506.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for vaz027>031-
040-501-505.

Winter weather advisory until 4 pm est this afternoon for
vaz055>057.

Wv... Winter storm warning until 10 pm est this evening for wvz505-
506.

Winter storm warning until 1 am est Thursday for wvz050>053-
055-501>504.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
anz531>533-539>542.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm est this evening for anz534-
537-543.

Synopsis... Lfr
near term... Lfr rcm
short term... Lfr
long term... Hts
aviation... Lfr hts rcm
marine... Lfr hts rcm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WASD2 - 8594900 - Washington, DC 14 mi39 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 30°F 41°F1033.8 hPa
BSLM2 - Chesapeake Bay, MD 22 mi99 min SE 6 30°F 1033 hPa29°F
NCDV2 25 mi45 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 31°F 39°F1032.3 hPa
TPLM2 - Thomas Point, MD 38 mi69 min ENE 8 G 9.9 29°F 37°F1033.9 hPa (-1.1)29°F
APAM2 - 8575512 - Annapolis, MD 39 mi39 min 30°F 1033.8 hPa
COVM2 - 8577018 - Cove Point LNG Pier, MD 42 mi39 min SE 4.1 G 16 31°F
SLIM2 - 8577330 - Solomons Island, MD 42 mi39 min E 8.9 G 11 32°F 39°F1031.9 hPa
CPVM2 44 mi39 min 30°F 30°F
FSKM2 - 8574728 - Francis Scott Key Bridge, MD 48 mi39 min ESE 7 G 8.9 29°F 1034.4 hPa
FSNM2 48 mi45 min ENE 9.9 G 12 28°F 1033.3 hPa
PPTM2 - 8578240 - Piney Point, MD 48 mi45 min E 13 G 16
BLTM2 - 8574680 - Baltimore, MD 49 mi39 min ESE 8 G 8.9 29°F 38°F1033.7 hPa

Wind History for Washington, DC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Belvoir, VA5 mi73 minN 01.50 miFog/Mist30°F27°F89%1032.9 hPa
Washington/Reagan National Airport, DC, VA13 mi77 minE 91.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F27°F85%1032.5 hPa
Camp Springs / Andrews Air Force Base, MD16 mi73 minENE 71.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist29°F27°F92%1032.9 hPa
Quantico Marine Corps Airfield - Turner Field, VA16 mi73 minE 52.00 miLight Freezing Rain Fog/Mist32°F30°F96%1033.2 hPa
Manassas, Manassas Regional Airport/Harry P. Davis Field, VA22 mi73 minNNW 61.00 miSnow31°F28°F89%1035.7 hPa
College Park Airport, MD23 mi86 minN 01.00 miOvercast29°F26°F91%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from DAA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW11NW8N4N6N4NW3NW4NW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3SE5SE6CalmE4E4E4Calm
1 day agoNW10N11
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2 days agoE4SE3E3SE6SE5SE5SE4CalmS4CalmCalmSE4SE6S5S5SW3W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3NW12
G16

Tide / Current Tables for Marshall Hall, Maryland
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Marshall Hall
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:22 AM EST     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:45 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:20 AM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Wed -- 02:39 PM EST     -0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:44 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.1-0.3-0.30.211.72.32.52.41.91.30.70.1-0.3-0.4-00.71.52.22.62.62.31.7

Tide / Current Tables for High Point, Occoquan Bay, Virginia
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High Point
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:44 AM EST     -0.24 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:20 AM EST     1.73 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:46 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     -0.28 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:17 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:44 PM EST     1.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.2-0.200.51.11.51.71.71.40.90.50.2-0.1-0.3-0.10.311.51.81.81.61.20.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Baltimore, MD/Washington (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Sterling, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.