Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Flatwoods, WV
April 29, 2024 3:05 AM EDT (07:05 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:22 AM Sunset 8:14 PM Moonrise 12:23 AM Moonset 9:21 AM |
Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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FXUS61 KRLX 290634 AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west early Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Monday...
Azores high pressure off the coast to our SE will continue to extend a ridge over the area through the day. Mild temperatures are expected this morning with most locations cooling off into the 50s and lower 60s. Spotty fog will likely form across the southern coalfields and mountains due to strong decoupling across these areas.
Today's temperatures will progress from a cool spring morning to more of a parching July afternoon: The lowlands will see highs in the mid to high 80s, approaching record territory in some spots; while the mountains will remain in the 70s and lower 80s. Some models think that temperatures will be 3-5 degrees warmer, which would be achievable if our trees were not mostly green (more water content to allow cooling) and if a high pressure center were directly overhead to decouple the area.
Mostly dry through the afternoon with scattered CU fields popping up during peak heating hours, a remote afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out due to the diurnal heating, but chances for this are rather low. SSW winds gradually increasing from calm to a light breeze by late afternoon. Drier air will mix down as a result allowing for RH percentages in the 30s this afternoon areawide. Winds look to be light enough to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. Plus, fuel moistures are starting to recover well enough this morning to create a decent buffer going into the afternoon when the driest conditions will exist.
Cold front will approach from the west late tonight into early Tuesday, which will be marked with increasingly cloudy skies tonight and rain/isolated thunderstorms along our western flank by Tuesday morning.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will start to work into the western part of the CWA Monday night as a front approaches from the west. Activity becomes more robust during the day on Tuesday, though no severe storms are expected at this time.
The activity may partially take the form of a pre-frontal line of showers and storms, but more general pop-up activity is expected around the area as well. One thing that remains somewhat uncertain is whether the surface front will maintain coherence as it crosses the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night, or if it will wash out. Regardless, shower and storm activity should quickly drop off after midnight Tuesday night, with likely just a few mountain showers lingering by sunrise.
After a very mild Monday night, the increased clouds and shower activity likely keeps much of the area in the 70s on Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM Sunday...
Whether the weakening front washes out across the area or skirts by to the north Tuesday night, by Wednesday there should be at best just a few mountain showers lingering, with an isolated rumble of thunder possible in the afternoon. Under the influence of a sharp upper-level ridge as well as a surface high over the Southeast US, we can expect to remain dry Wednesday night through Thursday. It will also get much warmer through the second half of the work week, with Wednesday highs at lower elevations ranging from around 80 to the mid-80s, with the mountains in the mid-60s to upper 70s. For Thursday, with the full influence of the ridging and the S'ly flow, we can expect afternoon highs from the 70s in the mountains to upper 80s and near 90 in lowlands.
As the ridge is forecast to slide off to the east Thursday night into Friday, showers and thunderstorms will start to creep in from the west, especially during the day on Friday. However, with the associated cold front not expected to pass until Saturday, showers and storms will remain possible into the weekend. The much above normal temps will persist for Friday, but may ease off a bit for Saturday.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM Monday...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies with either calm or light SSW winds. EKN will remain VFR until fog forms this morning. Expecting IFR VIS restrictions from ~10-12Z as a result; VFR will resume by ~13Z after sunrise. VFR will remain for all other sites with light SSW winds, winds may be breezy at times from ~16-22Z due to mixing. This will mostly be observed at the western sites of HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio.
A front will approach from the west Monday night bringing with it lowering CIGs and some showers/thunderstorms by ~12Z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN reduces VIS to LIFR when not forecasted.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/29/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 234 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure remains through today keeping conditions mostly dry with hot, summerlike temperatures this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west early Tuesday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 200 AM Monday...
Azores high pressure off the coast to our SE will continue to extend a ridge over the area through the day. Mild temperatures are expected this morning with most locations cooling off into the 50s and lower 60s. Spotty fog will likely form across the southern coalfields and mountains due to strong decoupling across these areas.
Today's temperatures will progress from a cool spring morning to more of a parching July afternoon: The lowlands will see highs in the mid to high 80s, approaching record territory in some spots; while the mountains will remain in the 70s and lower 80s. Some models think that temperatures will be 3-5 degrees warmer, which would be achievable if our trees were not mostly green (more water content to allow cooling) and if a high pressure center were directly overhead to decouple the area.
Mostly dry through the afternoon with scattered CU fields popping up during peak heating hours, a remote afternoon shower or storm cannot be ruled out due to the diurnal heating, but chances for this are rather low. SSW winds gradually increasing from calm to a light breeze by late afternoon. Drier air will mix down as a result allowing for RH percentages in the 30s this afternoon areawide. Winds look to be light enough to keep fire weather concerns to a minimum. Plus, fuel moistures are starting to recover well enough this morning to create a decent buffer going into the afternoon when the driest conditions will exist.
Cold front will approach from the west late tonight into early Tuesday, which will be marked with increasingly cloudy skies tonight and rain/isolated thunderstorms along our western flank by Tuesday morning.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 215 PM Sunday...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will start to work into the western part of the CWA Monday night as a front approaches from the west. Activity becomes more robust during the day on Tuesday, though no severe storms are expected at this time.
The activity may partially take the form of a pre-frontal line of showers and storms, but more general pop-up activity is expected around the area as well. One thing that remains somewhat uncertain is whether the surface front will maintain coherence as it crosses the area later Tuesday and Tuesday night, or if it will wash out. Regardless, shower and storm activity should quickly drop off after midnight Tuesday night, with likely just a few mountain showers lingering by sunrise.
After a very mild Monday night, the increased clouds and shower activity likely keeps much of the area in the 70s on Tuesday.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 145 PM Sunday...
Whether the weakening front washes out across the area or skirts by to the north Tuesday night, by Wednesday there should be at best just a few mountain showers lingering, with an isolated rumble of thunder possible in the afternoon. Under the influence of a sharp upper-level ridge as well as a surface high over the Southeast US, we can expect to remain dry Wednesday night through Thursday. It will also get much warmer through the second half of the work week, with Wednesday highs at lower elevations ranging from around 80 to the mid-80s, with the mountains in the mid-60s to upper 70s. For Thursday, with the full influence of the ridging and the S'ly flow, we can expect afternoon highs from the 70s in the mountains to upper 80s and near 90 in lowlands.
As the ridge is forecast to slide off to the east Thursday night into Friday, showers and thunderstorms will start to creep in from the west, especially during the day on Friday. However, with the associated cold front not expected to pass until Saturday, showers and storms will remain possible into the weekend. The much above normal temps will persist for Friday, but may ease off a bit for Saturday.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1245 AM Monday...
VFR conditions under mostly clear skies with either calm or light SSW winds. EKN will remain VFR until fog forms this morning. Expecting IFR VIS restrictions from ~10-12Z as a result; VFR will resume by ~13Z after sunrise. VFR will remain for all other sites with light SSW winds, winds may be breezy at times from ~16-22Z due to mixing. This will mostly be observed at the western sites of HTS, PKB and any smaller terminals across SE Ohio.
A front will approach from the west Monday night bringing with it lowering CIGs and some showers/thunderstorms by ~12Z Tuesday.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog at EKN reduces VIS to LIFR when not forecasted.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE MON 04/29/24 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H L M M L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.
RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.
Airport Reports
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Charleston, WV,
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