Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:36AMSunset 5:26PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 8:32 PM EST (01:32 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 6:10PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 180012
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
712 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
High pressure passes south of the area through Thursday.

Southwest flow of milder air Friday through the weekend, with a
warm front passing Saturday. Cold front Monday.

Near term through Thursday
As of 700 pm Wednesday...

clearing line is progressing eastward this evening, with
southeast ohio, northeast kentucky, and western west virginia
under a starry sky. This clearing will continue to progress east
through the evening, though likely slowing up once east of the
i79 corridor. A challenging temperature forecast exists
overnight. A clearing sky and good snowpack would typically
scream tank overnight, scoring big points on MOS guidance.

However, surface high resides across the southern states and
winds in the h925 to h85 layer will be increasing late
tonight... In the 25 to 35 kt range. This would help to mitigate
the freefall especially on the hilltops, while the high ridges
actually rise late with waa. I did not get too carried away with
lows as a result, but I did allow significant drops in the
valleys and hollers. The thinking there is that a significant
inversion will setup this evening that should be able to stiff
arm the increase in boundary layer winds overnight. In these
locations, -3 to -5 below was coded up, with lower single
digits elsewhere. This may be conservative, and I will likely
have to further adjust later this evening depending on the
trends.

As of 1110 am Wednesday...

guidance show a broad high pressure located over the south
central states, with a ridge extending northeast into ky and wv
through Thursday.

Sfc obs indicate flurries still occurring at some sites. Models
suggest that there still enough sfc to low level moisture over
the area tonight. This moisture will continue squeezing against
the mountains to produce flurries or light snow tonight. No
additional snow accumulations expected.

Weather charts show a broad sfc high pressure centered over the
south central states, with a ridge extending northeast into ky
and wv. This feature will keep light to calm flow overnight.

With snow on the ground, and skies trying to clear from west to
east overnight, temperatures are expected to plummet into the
lower single digits lowlands, and below zero over the higher
elevations northeast mountains. With the wind factor, over the
elevated terrain will produce wind chill values from -3f to
-20f. These conditions prompt the issuance of a winter weather
advisory for dangerous wind chills tonight through 14z
Thursday.

Went with the coldest guidance tweaking down some degrees over
the classic cold spots.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
As of 230 pm Wednesday...

overall, short term forecast is very quiet with a warming trend
as we head into the weekend. Ridging and high pressure is
basically overhead through the entire period. This will moderate
our temperatures nicely, with highs climbing into the low to mid
40s on Friday and mid to upper 40s on Saturday. Clouds will be
on the increase Saturday afternoon as a warm front approaches
from the southwest.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
As of 240 pm Wednesday...

fairly good agreement among the guidance now with a warm front
crossing on Saturday night into early Sunday morning. May see a
few light rain showers through the day on Sunday, but for the
most part we will be within the warm sector and relatively
stable conditions aloft. Strong low pressure will track into the
great lakes region by early Monday morning. This system will
drag a cold front across the forecast area on Monday, with
widespread rainfall looking more and more likely. Pwats are
showing to be slightly anomalous in the latest GEFS runs so with
the decent moisture, would not be surprised to see some spots
get an inch of rain out of this. Rivers remain quite high with
some ice jams in spots. There is some potential for some minor
flooding, but generally not thinking any major issues at this
time. Any lingering precipitation will change over to light rain
and possibly snow showers Monday night, with light
accumulations possible as colder air presses in behind the
front.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
As of 705 pm Wednesday...

clearing has worked east of pkb hts as of 00z. MVFR stratus and
flurries will gradually erode elsewhere this evening. This will
take longest across the mountain terminals, perhaps until after
06z.

Vfr conditions Thursday with southwesterly surface winds 10 to
15 kts in the afternoon.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Friday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: timing of clearing overnight may vary a few
hours at bkw ekn.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date thu
utc 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
est 1hrly 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
crw consistency m m m m m m m m m m m l
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
bkw consistency m m m m m m m h m m m l
ekn consistency h h h m m m m m m h h l
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
ckb consistency m m m m m m m m l m m l
after 00z Friday...

none.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Wind chill advisory until 9 am est Thursday for wvz520-522>526.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Arj sl
near term... Arj 30
short term... Mpk
long term... Mpk
aviation... 30


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi42 minW 65.00 miLight Snow9°F1°F73%1032.4 hPa

Wind History from EKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5N5N7NW4N5N3NW5NW7NW9NW7N4N4N43CalmCalmN6NW8NW9NW8NW84NW4W6
1 day agoSE5SE6S4SE4S6S8SE5SE5CalmCalmCalmCalmN4N5N4CalmN3CalmN7NW7NW7NW10N7Calm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmSE85S4S4SE4S5SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.