Sunday, February17, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 6:01PM Sunday February 17, 2019 8:42 PM EST (01:42 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug

Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 180115
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
815 pm est Sun feb 17 2019

Surface low pressure center moves northeast across the ohio
river this afternoon. Multiple systems affecting the area mid to
late next week.

Near term through Monday
As of 815 pm Sunday...

a few adjustments were made this evening to pop grids across the
ohio valley to account for less rain and more drizzle or
potentially a switch over to freezing drizzle early Monday
morning. Ice totals for this area looks to remain under advisory
criteria overnight, so no headlines are warranted at this time.

Also included some spotty drizzle in the mountains Monday
morning before it gets cold enough in the low levels to
reintroduce ice crystal in the clouds after daybreak.

As of 135 pm Sunday...

quite the busy weather picture this early afternoon.

Temperatures have been very slow to climb above freezing in our
far northwestern counties of SE oh, but the freezing rain sleet
threat is slowing ending, lastly in perry and morgan counties.

Up stream, there is embedded CU and a few lightning strikes, not
out of the question as this advects eastward. Same holds true
further south with a line of broken low topped convection in
the SW va counties, where rainfall have sneakily topped a half
inch. Will need to watch as this line moving in may train over
some of the same areas.

Warming has been more efficient in the tug fork valley and coal
fields today with readings in the 40s. Have kept the pops from
the previous forecast a bit lower given the downsloping in lower
level surface SE flow down the mountains as the surface low
approaches from the sw.

In the NE mountains where fzra remains a potential,
temperatures do seem to be rising and pushing values above
freezing as well. No change to the advisory for now.

Looking at an exit from NW to SE after 03z tonight once the
surface low moves to the NE of the cwa. Another boundary weak
cold front drops down after 12z which may warrant keeping slight
pops across the northern border with pbz, with chance in the
mountains given the wnw flow and modest lower level saturation.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
As of 300 pm Sunday...

a significant winter storm to affect the area Tuesday night
through Wednesday...

low pressure will pass well west of the area Tuesday into
Wednesday, tracking into the upper midwest. While not overly
impressive in strength, the combinations of a stout ridge near
the bahamas and a deepening upper trof across the plains will
allow for deep moisture advection into the area. This will send
pwats several deviations above normal for this time of year.

Throw in a strong LLJ and waa, and the groundwork is set for
significant precipitation. Wpc was used for QPF which paints 2
inches across much of the area, nearing 3 inches in the central

There will be some lingering cold air in the boundary
layer along with a significant dry layer. This will mean for the
potential for some snow sleet accumulations on the front end
across the lowlands, especially with efficient wetbulbing. The
mitigating factor is the strong LLJ and WAA which would keep
accumulations in check and confined to southeast ohio and the
northern WV lowlands before changing to rain. The mountains are
a different story. A 1038mb surface high across the northeast
will provide a fresh supply of cold air for the eastern slopes,
which will be further enforced as initial wetbulbing occurs.

Using NAM thermal profiles with wpc QPF resulting in significant
snow, sleet, and ice accumulations. The potential exists for
several inches of snow, especially across pocahontas county,
before changing over to several hours of sleet, followed by
several hours of freezing rain. After collaboration with
surrounding offices, elected to hold off on a watch given late
5th period. I will hit the hwo hard for the potential as well as
the flooding potential across the lowlands.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
As of 300 pm Sunday...

a brief break in the active pattern late week before another very
wet system for the weekend. This will be another heavy rain maker
and will likely bring a renewed threat of flooding along main stem

Aviation 01z Monday through Friday
As of 700 pm Sunday...

MVFR CIGS continue to rule out as the predominant flight
category this evening. Cold front entering into the region has
begun to deteriorate conditions, with pkb falling as the first
victim to ifr CIGS and vsbys. As the front presses further into
the region overnight, widespread ifr low MVFR is likely at all
terminals around midnight. Ceilings gradually improve to MVFR
levels for the western terminals as the night wears on and drier
air filters back into the region in the wake of the front.

Ckb, ekn, and bkw will be the last three terminals to see
reprieve as the front hits the brakes just east of the mountains
early Monday morning and slowly treks towards the coast. This
will maintain precip in these areas until midday with pops
tapering off from south to north along the mountains. The
remainder of the TAF period will be fairly quiet with ceilings
hovering around MVFR due to a nettlesome low level inversion
that remains in place through the early afternoon. The final few
hours of the period will conclude withVFR conditions returning
to the western lowlands.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Tuesday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: variations of ifr MVFR continues this
evening as precip moves in ahead of the cold front. Also, may
need to add llws in later TAF issuances at bkw from 00z to 06z.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date mon
utc 1hrly 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
est 1hrly 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06
crw consistency h h h m m h h h h h h h
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h h h h h h m h m m m h
ekn consistency h h m h h m m h h h h h
pkb consistency m m h h h l h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h m m m
after 00z Tuesday...

ifr possible in rain snow Tuesday night through at least

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 26 30
near term... 26 mek
short term... 30
long term... 30
aviation... Mek

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi51 minSE 79.00 miLight Rain45°F41°F86%1008.5 hPa

Wind History from EKN (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7CalmSE5S56W4SW3CalmS6SE5SE7
1 day agoW3W7NW7NW5NW8NW6N5N3CalmN4NW3NW3NW3N5NW4N5NW946NW5NW6N6N3Calm
2 days agoS7SE7SE63S6S8S8W10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.