Tuesday, November13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 5:09PM Tuesday November 13, 2018 11:19 PM EST (04:19 UTC) Moonrise 12:11PMMoonset 10:15PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 140259
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
959 pm est Tue nov 13 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds from the west tonight into Wednesday.

System Wednesday night through Thursday night, with possible
winter weather some areas. High pressure to begin the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
As of 945 pm Tuesday...

minor edits to the temperatures overnight, with most locations
in the mid to upper 20s by morning, mountains a bit chillier.

As of 630 pm Tuesday...

no major changes right now. Precipitation is pretty much out of
the area less a brief sprinkle pellet flake here and there. Will
look at the overnight lows for the next update.

As of 226 pm Tuesday...

with the cold front already east of the mountains, lingering
light rain, or drizzle lagging behind the front will exit the
eastern mountains by 00z Wednesday. Dry and cold air filters in
under northwest flow tonight. Models show h850 minus 5c digging
into southern WV tonight. Expect lows tonight to drop into the
20s areawide into the early morning hours.

A high pressure will slowly build in from the west tonight.

Models show the minus 5c h850 temperature line dropping south
over the area. Coincidentally, lingering moisture will exit the
eastern mountains prior to the arrival of colder air. So the
chances for significant snow are very low.

A potent mid to upper level low pressure system, and its
associated sfc reflection, will approach the area from the west.

Ahead of its arrival, clouds will increase and spread from
south to north late Wednesday.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday
As of 320 pm Tuesday...

models showing a strong upper level system pushing precipitation
into the region Wednesday night, continuing on Thursday. Surface
temperatures will determine the type of precipitation. This
will depend on the amount of warming Wednesday afternoon, and
the radiative cooling Wednesday evening. GFS showing a
significant cloud shield in advance of this system, and hence
the GFS mos guidance has warmer temperatures than the met mos
guidance. Best chances for problems would be on the eastern
slopes of the mountains where cold air damming should occur, and
possibly in the higher elevations of the mountains right next
to the cold air damming. Although MOS guidance has been trending
warmer over the last couple of runs, will go with a winter storm
watch in the favored areas due to the storms potential.

As the upper level low moves into the area Thursday night,
expect to see more of a transition to snow. Some snow should
linger in the northwest upslope areas into Friday.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
As of 240 pm Tuesday...

a high pressure system will build into the area later Friday and
Friday night. This will provide dry weather and some moderation
in temperatures for the beginning of the weekend.

A moisture starved cold front will then move through toward the
end of the weekend or early in the next work week. All models
have this feature, but timing and details vary.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
As of 630 pm Tuesday...

over the entire span of the forecast, expecting conditions to
improve across the terminals, taking the longest time to do so
in the two mountain terminals of bkw and ekn. Ceilings lift out
of MVFR for the lowlands at hts pkb crw ckb after 06z or so,
clearing out, and then getting into the high level moisture late
in the period ahead of the next system pushing in from the
southwest. There should be enough of a light wind to inhibit fog
development, but will word this issue in the alternate scenarios
below. As for bkw, expecting ifr or worse fog and ceilings to
impact the terminal through the front half of the TAF before
turningVFR after 14z Wednesday.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Thursday...

forecast confidence: medium.

Alternate scenarios: some guidance suggest clam winds after 09z,
so visibilities might drop briefly.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Date Wed 11 14 18
utc 1hrly 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14
est 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
crw consistency m h m h h h h h h h h h
hts consistency m m h h h h h h h h h h
bkw consistency h m m l l l m l l l l m
ekn consistency m h h h h h m m l m m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h m h
ckb consistency h m m h h m h h h h h h
after 00z Thursday...

ifr possible in rain, freezing rain, snow and sleet overnight
Wednesday night, rain lowlands and mixed wintry precipitation
mountains Thursday, and then in rain and snow showers Thursday
night into early Friday morning.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... Winter storm watch from late Wednesday night through Thursday
evening for wvz523-524-526.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... Rpy arj
near term... 26 arj
short term... Rpy
long term... Rpy
aviation... 26


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi29 minNNW 74.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F89%1028.3 hPa

Wind History from EKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmN3NW3N4NW4NW5NW3NW8NW6NW6NW8NW6W5NW6443NW3N7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3NW5CalmW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.