Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Flatwoods, WV

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:59AMSunset 8:37PM Friday May 24, 2019 8:52 PM EDT (00:52 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 10:02AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Flatwoods, WV
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location: 38.68, -80.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Charleston WV
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Fxus61 krlx 250016
afdrlx
area forecast discussion
national weather service charleston wv
816 pm edt Fri may 24 2019

Synopsis
Dry warm front lifts north tonight. Deep ridge provides tranquil
weather into midday Saturday. Another cold front reaches the
area from the west Saturday night through Monday.

Near term through Saturday
As of 740 pm Friday...

sent a quick update to clean up clouds per latest metars and vis
satellite imagery showing mostly clear skies with few areas of
diurnal CU with little vertical extend. Radar images showed how
isolated thunderstorms decayed over northeast ky and portions of
central WV late this afternoon. Convective activity is expected
to cease by sunset. Expect a mostly clear night and near calm
or weak northerly flow. Some low strato CU could develop from
the central mountains, west to portions of kanawha county
overnight, as suggested by SREF probabilities.

Removed pops and associated showers or storms keeping it dry for
the rest of tonight. Although outside of season, conditions are
a little favorable for some fog development during the predawn
hours on Saturday, mainly along the river valleys.

As of 225 pm Friday...

models indicate a wave traversing around the peripheral of the
ridge will allow showers and perhaps some morning storms in the
vicinity of the oh river Saturday morning, shifting eastward as
the day progresses. I've increased pops for tomorrow, but not
quite as high as some models are suggesting. Highs tomorrow will
be dependent on convection but we should still manage at least
low 80s.

Short term Saturday night through Monday
As of 300 pm Friday...

showers and storms wind down for the most part overnight, with
scattered activity mainly along the aforementioned boundary
across the north and in the mountains. By early Sunday, a
northern stream trough skirts to the north of the great lakes,
tightening the mass gradient for us. As a result, warm, moist
flow converges again along a weak cold front limping down into
the ohio valley, providing the focus for more shower storm
chances on Sunday. Thus a ring-of-fire type patter persists,
with ripples of energy in the mean ridge generating waves of
convection along the boundary through Sunday night.

Storm training could lead to flooding Sunday and Sunday night.

Something to keep a close eye on is where rain falls Friday and
Saturday, and if vulnerable locations arise before steadier
rain arrives Sunday. In general the flood threat will increase
with each round of moderate to heavy rain Sunday. There is
damaging wind potential, but details this far out are a bit
sketchy at this time.

Modest NW flow behind the wave brings in slightly cooler, drier
air Monday for brief break - although a few storms are still
possible especially in the mountains as the remnant boundary
remains draped across the area.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 315 pm Friday...

Monday night into early Tuesday, the ridge axis across the south
shifts east allowing for warm advection to return with gusto.

Warm frontal showers and storms are possible, but current timing
overnight would rely on frontal forcing to realize elevated
instability, so have stuck with chance slight chance pops.

Tuesday and Wednesday, 850mb temps soar to near 20 c translating
to surface temperatures reaching into the low-90's across the
lowlands and 80's across most of the mountains (even snowshoe at
4848' reaches the mid-70's). Models continue to trend dry for
the bulk of the area for this time period with the exception of
elevated-heat-source type showers and storms across the
mountains. Should the warm front move through later into the
daytime hours of Tuesday, more showers and storms are possible.

Late in the week, models agree on a pattern shift with greater chances
for troughing across the earn CONUS as opposed to persistent ridging
that has plagued the region for several days. This will likely
lead to rounds of storms as cold fronts and surface systems
associated with troughs move across the area. The consolation
prize with these would be more seasonable, reasonable may
temperatures back down into the 60's (highest ridges) to near 80
(western lowlands).

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 750 pm Friday...

widespreadVFR conditions expected through at least 12z
Saturday. However, an MVFR deck could develop across the central
mountains, west through central WV late overnight. Otherwise,
some patchy dense fog could develop as well, mainly along the
river valleys. Coverage and intensity of fog should not affect
terminal and remain rather shallow and patchy.

A frontal boundary will gradually lift north and northeast
tonight. Despite of marginally unstable atmosphere, sufficient
available moisture and the presence of a surface boundary, do
not expect further convection to develop for the rest of
tonight.

Shower and storm activity will return over portions of southeast
oh and lowlands of WV after 15-17z. Brief prods of ifr
conditions could result under heaviest showers or storms
Saturday afternoon and evening.

Forecast confidence and alternate scenarios through 00z Sunday...

forecast confidence: high.

Alternate scenarios: formation of MVFR stratus or river valley
fog could vary from forecast into 12z Saturday.

Experimental table of flight category objectively shows consistency
of WFO forecast to available model information:
h = high: TAF consistent with all models or all but one model.

M = medium: TAF has varying level of consistency with models.

L = low: TAF inconsistent with all models or all but one model.

Utc 1hrly 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
edt 1hrly 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
crw consistency h h h h h h h h h m h m
hts consistency h h h h h h h h h h h m
bkw consistency h h h h h h h h m l l l
ekn consistency h h h h h h m h h l m m
pkb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
ckb consistency h h h h h h h h h h h h
after 00z Sunday...

brief ifr possible in storms Saturday evening into Sunday.

Rlx watches warnings advisories
Wv... None.

Oh... None.

Ky... None.

Va... None.

Synopsis... 30 mc
near term... Arj 30
short term... Mc
long term... Mc
aviation... Arj


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elkins, Elkins-Randolph County-Jennings Randolph Field, WV36 mi61 minN 010.00 miOvercast73°F59°F62%1021.2 hPa

Wind History from EKN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW9
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NW74NW5NW54NW9NW7W10W11W8
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1 day agoSE6S6S6S7SE6SE8SE7SE63CalmCalmCalm4SW5SW11
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5--S755S103W8W8SW8W6S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Charleston WV (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, WV
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.