Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Southampton, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:42PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:35 AM EDT (12:35 UTC) Moonrise 12:35PMMoonset 10:49PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Southampton, NY
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location: 38.69, -71.39     debug

Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 261135
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
735 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

High pressure slowly retreats to the east through Wednesday as
hurricane maria tracks northeast off the mid atlantic coast.

Refer to statements form the national hurricane center for the
latest on maria. A cold front moves through the region
Wednesday night, followed by brief high pressure building in
from the west through late week. Another cold front passes
through Friday night, followed by high pressure settling in
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
The forecast is on track with only minor adjustments made with
this update.

The main story today is that long period swells from hurricane
maria will produce high, dangerous surf and strong rip currents
at atlantic beaches. With swells at 44025 progged to 7-8 ft at
15 seconds at 44025 and 9-10 ft at 15 seconds at 44017, expect
to sea breaking waves up to 6 to 9 ft at western beaches and 7
to 10 ft at eastern beaches (and this might be a tad
conservative, depending on the exact angle of incidence with the
beach). As a result have extended the high surf advisory west to
encompass nyc and nassau county atlantic beaches (was just for
suffolk county atlantic beaches) and have continued with the
high risk of rip currents for all atlantic beaches.

Otherwise... The axis of a northern stream ridge builds over the
region today, as the northwest extension of the sub-tropical
ridge retreats to the east. The result should be sufficient
subsidence to keep the region dry.

This subsidence also will help keep moisture trapped beneath an
inversion with a base from 975-925 hpa over the area. As a
result expect low level stratus fog to be slow to erode from w
to E with some possibility that the twin forks of long island
and maybe even coastal new london county never have the deck
fully erode.

The evolution of this stratus fog deck will go a large way in
determining highs for today. For now leaned towards cooler met
guidance over eastern areas and went more with a blend farther
w, and leaned towards warmer mav ecs guidance over W portions of
the lower hudson valley. Highs should range from 5-10 degrees
above normal, but could end up quite a bit cooler, especially
over far E zones if the stratus deck does indeed maintain itself
all day.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Swells from maria will continue to produce high, dangerous surf
through Wednesday and quite likely dangerous rip currents as
well, with swells progged to around 10 ft 14 seconds at 44025
and 10-11ft 14 seconds at 44017. As a result have extended the
high surf advisory for all atlantic beaches through 22z
Wednesday and have continued with the high rip current risk for

Otherwise, the northern stream ridge axis exits to the northeast
and wsw flow sets up aloft for Wednesday. There could be a weak
700 hpa shortwave passing Wednesday afternoon, so have a slight
chance of showers then, otherwise it should be dry.

The fog stratus deck should return tonight, and likely will be
more extensive than it was last night early this morning. The
main thing that is unknown is how dense the fog will be will
the area be more mainly just stratus. So for now playing things
as patchy fog, but definitely cannot rule out areas of dense
fog, especially over eastern areas. Lows tonight should be
around 10-15 degrees above normal.

This deck should be slower to erode on Wednesday than today. As
a result, even with low level temperatures forecast to be a
degree or so warmer than today, did not change high temperatures
much from today. Once again, continue to have a bust potential
on the low side (by 5-10 degrees) if the stratus deck does not
erode at all.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
A cold front moves through the region Wednesday night. Meanwhile,
moisture associated with maria tries to sneak in mainly over the
eastern zones. Will go with low chances of showers for most areas,
but focused more to the east of the city.

Aside from a lingering shower possible early in the morning in the
vicinity of the twin forks, Thursday should be dry as high pressure
builds in. Leaned towards the warmer side of guidance for high
temperatures based on forecast 850-900mb temps during the afternoon.

It will begin to feel less muggy as well with dewpoints falling to
around 50 by the end of the day. A return to seasonable temperatures
then follows for Friday as high pressure remains over the region.

Global models differ in the timing of the next cold front, but best
guess right now is that it moves through at some point during Friday
night with a slight chance of showers. An upper trough cold pool
aloft follows for Saturday so some instability showers are possible.

Kept pops at slight chance for this. Highs for Saturday mostly 65-70.

High pressure continues to build in for Sunday and Monday with dry
weather and high temperatures generally around 70.

Aviation 11z Tuesday through Saturday
Weakening high pressure remains across the region through the
taf period.

Flight categories primarily in the ifr lifr range with
oscillating visibilities with city terminals right on the edge
of this sharp contrast in visibilities . The low visibilities
and ceilings will continue through 12-13z and then start to mix
out from W to E due to heating and daytime mixing. Kisp and kgon
take a bit longer. The flow becomes onshore again and then
decreases again into the evening.

After light vrb winds early this morning, NE E winds 5-10 kt
develop this morning and shift to the SE again mainly during
the late morning early afternoon. Low ceilings come back again
late tonight after 0z.

Ny metro enhanced aviation weather support...

detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: http:

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
The Gabreski Airport, NY162 mi43 minENE 40.25 miFog66°F64°F96%1018.1 hPa

Wind History from FOK (wind in knots)
Last 24hrS3SE33S75E56SE5SE5SE6CalmSE3SE3CalmNE6NE4E3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmNE3NE4
1 day agoN7NE6E54N7E4SE6E4S4CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN14

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT

Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.